PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

The interesting thing is this still has time to verify as a major Arctic blast with only a bit of snow going into it.  Just way too complicated of an evolution to rule anything out.

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS isn’t having it. Thank god we have the Euro 

[Cloud]

If I didn't know better, I'd say the GFS and the Euro reversed roles. What timeline is this? 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing is this still has time to verify as a major Arctic blast with only a bit of snow going into it.  Just way too complicated of an evolution to rule anything out.

The upper level pattern the 00z GEM and EURO both show at day 7 is just incredible. Fun times ahead!

[WeatherGeek2022]

I imagine next week is anyones guess what's gonna happen at this point with so much scattering between the models.

[Gradient Keeper]

I have a few thoughts regarding the ECMWF Op and EPS. I think this is 4 or 5 consecutive really good runs of the ECMWF and yet the EPS shows it has been an outlier. There were some improvements tonight with snow long range. I don't think the ECMWF Op showing good consistency for cold/snow should be written off. I also remember the EPS used to just about always be in lock-step with the OP through Day 6-8 and even sometimes to Day 9, but lately it has diverged from the Op at just Day 5. We're seeing the Op improve and timing move ahead as well. A handful of times we've seen the ensembles turn out to be the outlier moving towards the Op. Could that be happening again? I'm not sure. The GEM and CMCE improved as well.

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 32 minutes

[snow_wizard]

November was pretty cold in the NW!

[HuskyMaestro]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

GFS isn’t having it. Thank god we have the Euro 

What an crazy timeline to have these two switch and be so adamant/double down on their forecast. Euro’s been a real bestie the last few days. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. I’m like 20 pages behind. Won’t even try to read through that much.   Feels a bit January 2020ish looking at the models tonight 

[ShawniganLake]

 

more blocking up north than we had in 2020. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looking better 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looking better 

PDX please!

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looking better 

I'll take number 49 please 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS 850 spaghetti is pretty good tonight.  About half of the members are below -10 on the 21st over Seattle while only a third were on the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

more blocking up north than we had in 2020. 

Block was so much further west in Jan 2020. Similar crummy tilt though as the models show now.

[Cold Snap]

Good to see the EPS trend in a good direction tonight. Now if we could get the OP or Control run to verify that would be insane for the puget sound region.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

PDX please!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS long range after Day 7 wants to dump cold air west into the Gorge. A lot of very cold members too. Hmmm!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Some ensemble support for spotty snow in PDX tonight @Gradient Keeper

[Gradient Keeper]

Impressive for the Columbia Basin!

[Cold Snap]

Currently 37 after a high of 38. Spread of 38/30 for the day. Probably will see a lot more sub-40 highs in the coming days along with a lot more freezes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Some ensemble support for spotty snow in PDX tonight @Gradient Keeper

It’s 40 at PDX though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

This isn't over yet. Not by a long shot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess what? The PDX carpet pics are back! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

This isn't over yet. Not by a long shot.

Can you post the Seattle spaghetti plz?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 at Eugene and Corvallis,

32 at Salem. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Seattle

850s

Surface temps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to -2 at Lakeview in south central Oregon. 

[Nov1985]

Just did a bit of a deep dive. It looks like the Euro upgrade of ensembles resolution from 18 km to 9 km is now scheduled for Q2-2023 per this link. And from a recent ECMWF newsletter, made possible by improved compute power. I was curious if this upgrade had happened recently and might behind EPS / Operational differences. Seems not to be the case.

 

 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Just did a bit of a deep dive. It looks like the Euro upgrade of ensembles resolution from 18 km to 9 km is now scheduled for Q2-2023 per this link. And from a recent ECMWF newsletter, made possible by improved compute power. I was curious if this upgrade had happened recently and might behind EPS / Operational differences. Seems not to be the case.

 

 

Thanks! I was wondering if that had already happened but I couldn't find an answer 

[Slushy Inch]

The pinks are increasing!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM is running!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Fell asleep... just saw ECMWF.    Wow!!

That was a massive change so its not consistent  now.    But now we have the ECMWF showing absolutely incredible snow amounts.    

 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fell asleep... just saw ECMWF.    Wow!!

That was a massive change so its not consistent  now.    But now we have the ECMWF showing absolutely incredible snow amounts.    

 

 

 

Are u onboard yet? @TT-SEA

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fell asleep... just saw ECMWF.    Wow!!

That was a massive change so its not consistent  now.    But now we have the ECMWF showing absolutely incredible snow amounts.    

 

 

 

give us snow or give us single digits!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z ICON is running!!!!

[Nov1985]

Oh, and to whomever (two weeks ago) I was proposing that ECMWF wind gust forecasts are no longer crazy, this release claims to have fixed it in October, 2021. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Are u onboard yet? @TT-SEA

No idea... I feel lost because I did not see the last 25 pages.    But 20 inches of snow in just one day right before Christmas?   Holy crap.   

 

[TT-SEA]

I am also sure this has been said... but the ECMWF and control run show a very similar progression as the GEM.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea... I feel lost because did not see the last 25 pages.    But 20 inches of snow in just one day right before Christmas?   Holy crap.   

 

it would be a long awaited miracle.