August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Will this be anything like the #1993'ing we experienced earlier this summer?

#1993'ing was just a forecast for June, and it was always supposed to be a watered down version of the real deal.

 

Flip in August was well-called, too. The transition between the two caught me napping, though.

[Front Ranger]

Stakes are raised during fall/winter, though. How do you plan to make a winter forecast with a dormant PDO/ENSO? Those are usually your bread and butter indices.

 

I'll probably look at winters with dormant PDO/ENSO. And weight other factors heavier.

 

Let's not jump the gun, though...we still got 2 summer months left!

[Jesse]

#1993'ing was just a forecast for June, and it was always supposed to be a watered down version of the real deal.

 

Flip in August was well-called, too. The transition between the two caught me napping, though.

Do you see us following the 2014 analog through the whole fall or just a little while before jumping to the next one? I will take a watered down 2014.

[Front Ranger]

Station of the gods powering through the smoke and blows by yesterday's high by 4 degrees.

[wx_statman]

Good read from Cliff today on the impact of the smoke on temperatures yesterday.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

 

It's funny, he mentions UIL hitting 99 for an all-time record. He must have been looking at 5 minute obs and not factoring in C to F rounding. The actual high was 98, a degree short of the all-time record.

[wx_statman]

Smoke definitely trying to clear. VUO's 4:30 obs lifted the visibility to 7 miles and removed "haze" from the metar for the first time all day. 

[wx_statman]

PDX up to at least 103.1 on the 4:35 metar. 

[Jesse]

Any appreciable cooldown seems to keep getting delayed with each consecutive run.

[Jesse]

Beginning Sunday, I'm taking a long-planned road trip to the back country of northeast Oregon and western Idaho. Looks like the whole area will be socked in with smoke, and some of my planned routes in Idaho are closed because of a fire there.

Sorry man. The heat and smoke has ruined a lot of my summer plans as well.

[wx_statman]

Nice spike at PDX between 4:30 and 4:40.

 

We have ourselves 105. 

[Tyler Mode]

High of 104 today, hottest temperature I've ever recorded in my 7 years in Battle Ground!

[Deweydog]

Nice job, PDX.

[DareDuck]

99 in Bend today. Looking like we'll fall short of 100 again. Heading down to Mammoth tomorrow for some August skiing. Chance of storms down there and then looks like a decent chance at a storm or two in central OR next week.

[James Jones]

Nice spike at PDX between 4:30 and 4:40.

 

We have ourselves 105. 

 

Really impressive considering the smoke. Probably would have tied the all-time record if not for that.

[wx_statman]

Roseburg has a new August record

 

Yeah, 108 at RBG. That's an August record but the period of record is only 1931-1965, and 1997-present. Some big August heat waves from the 70's and 80's are missing...the KQEN station in Roseburg hit 108 on 8/16/1977 and 8/8/1978, for example. 

[wx_statman]

Really impressive considering the smoke. Probably would have tied the all-time record if not for that.

 

Very possible. 

[Deweydog]

Any appreciable cooldown seems to keep getting delayed with each consecutive run.

Today's Euro was the most aggressive yet with the cooling next week.

[Phil]

Do you see us following the 2014 analog through the whole fall or just a little while before jumping to the next one? I will take a watered down 2014.

I highly doubt we'll follow 2014 for more than 2-3 months. Once into O/N/D, solar starts to matter more, and we're much closer to solar minimum now. So definitely more high latitude blocking and a weaker PV this year.

[Geos]

Hit 91 at home, so not the hottest temperature of 2017.

[epiceast]

If you want to get a good burger, hit up Parkers in Drummond (about 40-50 miles east of Missoula).  If they are closed for some reason just keep driving, the other food option (Wagon Wheel) is terrible...

I might need to see that next time I go east. There's also a good burger place in Butte I tried to go to but it's cash only.

[Deweydog]

Marine push in progress!!!!!!!

[BLI snowman]

I highly doubt we'll follow 2014 for more than 2-3 months. Once into O/N/D, solar starts to matter more, and we're much closer to solar minimum now. So definitely more high latitude blocking and a weaker PV this year.

 

I doubt we'll see an October as cold as that one this year.

[BLI snowman]

PDX's annual temperature range of 94 (105/11) now ties it with 2009 for 3rd largest all time after 1950 and 1972.

[Jesse]

Today's Euro was the most aggressive yet with the cooling next week.

Are you talking about the increased onshore flow over the weekend? Or the fantasy land stuff out at day 9-10.

[Front Ranger]

Surreal.

 

[Front Ranger]

Maybe for my vacation next summer I'll emulate Phil and take a sea voyage

 

Do you think he'll ever post those pics? Asking for a friend.

[wx_statman]

Are you talking about the increased onshore flow over the weekend? Or the fantasy land stuff out at day 9-10.

 

You know you're in a strange place, when we talk about fantasy land marine pushes.

[Kayla]

Bozeman is looking really gunky as well... the mountains to the east are mostly obscured through a brown haze.   

 

Smoke is very effective at making a pretty place look ugly... as I saw at home yesterday too.  

 

Yeah definitely a thick haze today but at least it was cool and in the 70's!

[Kayla]

Actually as we got into Bozeman the air quality noticeably improved.   It was really bad west of town.  It also looks greener.  

 

 

I'm just to the right (south) there about 5-6 miles at the base of the Gallatin's! It is quite amazing how quickly the climate changes from Belgrade to west Bozeman and finally city center. Higher elevation and much more moisture/greenery. It was a beautiful day minus the haze. Yesterday was even better.

[Phil]

Do you think he'll ever post those pics? Asking for a friend.

Goodness gracious, let me live my f**king life already.

 

I'm trying to enjoy my vacation, and I have interests/obligations outside this forum.

[luminen]

The smoke was so dense this morning I could not see downtown Vancouver at all from North Vancouver. It's not that far at all across the water...

 

I'm betting we don't get rain at all this month.

[stuffradio]

Goodness gracious, let me live my f**king life already.

 

I'm trying to enjoy my vacation, and I have interests/obligations outside this forum.

Your interests/obligations are to us!

[Front Ranger]

Goodness gracious, let me live my f**king life already.

 

I'm trying to enjoy my vacation, and I have interests/obligations outside this forum.

We lie in the bed we've made...you were very public with your vacation plans.

 

You told people already you'd post those pics. Context.

[Abbotsford_wx]

It was 58.6 / 90.0 here today, and it's already down to 71 this evening.

 

Yesterday was 58.6 / 95.4

 

The smoke has been pretty bad with visibility generally between 3 and 7 miles.

[Tenochtitlan]

SEA has reported smoke for the past 32 consecutive hours. I wonder what the longest stretch on record was.

[Phil]

We lie in the bed we've made...you were very public with your vacation plans.

 

You told people already you'd post those pics. Context.

It's irrelevant how "public" I was about my vacation plans. I'll post the pictures when I feel like it. I have more important things to do on vacation than upload a slew of photos from my phone to an external server, using a crappy wifi connection, then upload them here. Get the f**k over it.

[TT-SEA]

You know you're in a strange place, when we talk about fantasy land marine pushes.

A strong marine push would be sent from heaven right now.

[TT-SEA]

The smoke was so dense this morning I could not see downtown Vancouver at all from North Vancouver. It's not that far at all across the water...

 

I'm betting we don't get rain at all this month.

Its going to rain in the next 2 weeks.

[GHweatherChris]

It's irrelevant how "public" I was about my vacation plans. I'll post the pictures when I feel like it. I have more important things to do on vacation than upload a slew of photos from my phone to an external server, using a crappy wifi connection, then upload them here. Get the f**k over it.

It's 2017, there is no way every wifi connection has been crappy, and like I said before, uploading straight from your phone is quick and easy even on 4G.

 

And you must be the only person ever on vacation to never post pics of said vacation while on vacation, at least in modern times. You had plenty of time in the airports to post.

[Phil]

It's 2017, there is no way every wifi connection has been crappy, and like I said before, uploading straight from your phone is quick and easy even on 4G.

 

And you must be the only person ever on vacation to never post pics of said vacation while on vacation, at least in modern times. You had plenty of time in the airports to post.

Yeah, and instead I did other things with my time, because that's my choice. I have a life to live. Get the f**k over it.