PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

When I was a younger, loud-mouthed lad him and I got into some Twitter squabbles. Man I was aggressive lol

Everybody has had their moments, but I'm an angel.  Perfect record!!

[Meatyorologist]

I walked so Andrew could run

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark! I actually love Burns. It has an end of the earth type of feel. 

I was there this fall for hunting for the first time as an adult. It definitely feels like the end of the world as you head east across the Great Basin, pretty unreal.   My wife scored a nice 30” spread mule deer. Weather was not cold, 85 and sunny in early October , crazy because as a kid and teen out there I remember it snowing once.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Timmy

[Cold Snap]

Already down to 30 after a high of 38 with freezing fog. This was a nice little cold snap this week!

[Terreboner]

Right now is the "big quiet" before the 00z runs.  

 

[Requiem]

Wouldn't obviously discount the GFS solution, but the NAM is not a great model when it comes to these specific details if we're completely honest. It's encouraging to see the GFS gradually trending towards other solutions.

[Deweydog]

We’ve had more volatile setups in the past (hi January 2011) but this has the makings of one of most epic model battles of all time. Exciting times!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I was there this fall for hunting for the first time as an adult. It definitely feels like the end of the world as you head east across the Great Basin, pretty unreal.   My wife scored a nice 30” spread mule deer. Weather was not cold, 85 and sunny in early October , crazy because as a kid and teen out there I remember it snowing once.

Fun fact. At 10,226 sq miles, Harney County is bigger than 6 US states. It has a population of 7,575 people, 60% of whom live in the towns of Burns and Hines, which are the only two incorporated towns in the county and are pretty much right next to each other. 

[Jbolin]

27 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I'm having a drink for every time MS says "convergence zone".  I'm getting smashed!!!

I'm already three edibles and six whiskey sours deep bro 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Wouldn't obviously discount the GFS solution, but the NAM is not a great model when it comes to these specific details if we're completely honest. It's encouraging to see the GFS gradually trending towards other solutions.

It’s a 180. The NAM has a notorious history for being too suppressed and aggressive with cold advection.

[RentonHill]

RGEM shifts towards GFS too. mightbe a rough night of 00z runs.

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. At 10,226 sq miles, Harney County is bigger than 6 US states. It has a population of 7,575 people, 60% of whom live in the towns of Burns and Hines, which are the only two incorporated towns in the county and are pretty much right next to each other. 

I can tell you a great story about Hines.  One of my favorite bars is there.  The owner is one of the most badass women in Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

We’ve had more volatile setups in the past (hi January 2011) but this has the makings of one of most epic model battles of all time. Exciting times!

If we get the rug pulled again this would be pretty much exactly like 2011. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. At 10,226 sq miles, Harney County is bigger than 6 US states. It has a population of 7,575 people, 60% of whom live in the towns of Burns and Hines, which are the only two incorporated towns in the county and are pretty much right next to each other. 

I’ve been told that the hamlet of Fields has the best burgers in Harney County.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

RGEM shifts towards GFS too. mightbe a rough night of 00z runs.

Over before it started? 

[Jbolin]

23 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

I like Michael Snyder. I’m pretty sure he has muted me, but that isnt as bad as most of WAWX Twitter where I am on someone’s blocklist.

The only real personality that I have met in person has been @KSeattleWeather. That dude was nice and we were able to break bread while talking smack about some of our hometown warministas, like Marriot or Tim.

I've met Justin a few times over the years. He's a solid guy, no theatrics or BS with him.

[MossMan]

It’s over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’ve been told that the hamlet of Fields has the best burgers in Harney County.

Fields is a wild place man! What's interesting is the east side of Steens Mtn is actually pretty warm compared to Burns. Burns average high low in mid winter is roughly 34/17, Fields similar if not slightly higher elevation is 40/21. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we get the rug pulled again this would be pretty much exactly like 2011. 

Seems to me that one was more of a spectacle with its prognostications. Snowfall amounts advertised then would probably be in the 100-200 inch range on today’s souped up snowfall generators.

[Hawksfan2008]

RGEM is still fine. Much closer to the EURO than the GFS/NAM. But holy hell what a volatile setup  

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Over before it started? 

Already in the 20’s here!

[Cold Snap]

Looks like it’s coming a little early!

[MWG]

I sense a lot of people pulling an all-nighter tonight 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like it’s coming a little early!

Snow Blob is not amused.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like it’s coming a little early!

... That fooled me. D*mn it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My 15 month old (at the time) daughter pumping water at Fields, circa September 2018. 

East Steens Mtn Loop Rd

Looking out over the Malheur Nat'l Wildlife Refuge.

Wildhorse Lake on Steens Mtn. 

Looking east from the top of Steens Mtn, down onto the Alvord Desert

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

RGEM is still fine. Much closer to the EURO than the GFS/NAM. But holy hell what a volatile setup  

No sign of that system into Vancouver Island. We should be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON also a bit of a step back at hour 54. 

[Meatyorologist]

Might be a rough evening. That, or a compromise is being made.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might be a rough evening. That, or a compromise is being made.

Back and forth, back and forth, I quit.

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON also a bit of a step back at hour 54. 

I don't see any step back at least at the surface

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Over before it started? 

I watch the rgem a bunch and if it is moving towards a gfs type solution I just lost a bunch of confidence on arctic air marching south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might be a rough evening. That, or a compromise is being made.

Well I'm just going to be 100% real. A compromise is going to be pretty tough on folks south of Olympia. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

I don't see any step back at least at the surface

Might just be a wobble. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I'm just going to be 100% real. A compromise is going to be pretty tough on folks south of Olympia. 

Yeah. Would be pretty disappointing if we missed out on the deep Arctic air up here, too.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON also a bit of a step back at hour 54. 

That is false 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 minutes ago, MWG said:

I sense a lot of people pulling an all-nighter tonight 

I’m about to get some coffee ️!

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON also a bit of a step back at hour 54. 

I thought that at first but I don’t think it is any worse. Colder air is further east and south east of the cascades

[Timmy]

Icon is a big step back at hour 108. My goodness

[Meatyorologist]

Lawdy...