Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[OmahaSnowFan]

-70 wind chills in Wyoming 

[Hoosier]

So we've seen a series of less impressive model runs now with the development/deepening of the surface low.  What to make of it?

The key to all of this is still partially offshore.  The 00z Wed model cycle will have better RAOB sampling and 12z Wednesday even better yet.  At that point we'll see if the recent trends stop and begin to reverse to an extent, or just keep continuing in the current direction.  But with the above in mind and also that the ensemble packages seem to have more members leaning west of their operational runs, it argues for some caution and not jumping off the cliff (if trends are bad for your area) or getting overly excited (if trends are good for your area) just yet.

[chances14]

well this is still looking good for us here in southern michigan. I'm really rooting for that elusive blizzard warning that we haven't seen in SEMI in 12 years

[gabel23]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

@gabel23What do you think the NWS offices put out this afternoon, winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings, or blizzard warnings?  I would assume they would need to issue something this afternoon as the poor conditions move in Wednesday evening which is only a little over 1 day away.

I'm thinking blizzard warnings along I-80 from Kearney all the way to Omaha. WWA outside of that. Regardless if we see an inch or 4" it's gonna be blowing around like crazy! 

[Tony]

For Chicago folks, it looks like the high winds will not last as long as originally was modeled which should temper things a bit. This can change if the more wound-up solution comes back into play but as of now it looks to be a progressive system and out of the area faster than earlier expected.

[Tony]

GFS 12z showing 2 Lows, which is strange. The main low in Texas jumps to Central IL which makes no sense to me. This was not the case in previous runs which makes it suspect. I believe the NAM was showing the same but not quite sure.

[indianajohn]

Who would do thought the NAM was could possibly be the big winner with its runs last night!! Still think we may have some more surprises in model runs.. it’s Mother Nature and she will do what she wants but we seldomly ever see GFS and Euro in pretty much agreement so close to an event and both be completely wrong.. Will we have a generational storm more then likely no but I still think we could fall some where in middle of earlier forecasts.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

GFS 12z showing 2 Lows, which is strange. The main low in Texas jumps to Central IL which makes no sense to me. This was not the case in previous runs which makes it suspect. I believe the NAM was showing the same but not quite sure.

There is so much energy aloft barreling south/east that I think it's giving the models some fits on sfc low positioning and precisely when/where it really starts to deepen and bomb out.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Aaaaand Euro comes in cutting totals even more. As suspected, now looking at only a couple inches for FSD. This thing went down the pooper real fast. At least for out here. Hope others can score something more substantial.

It has me a little over 4".  With gusting winds I would take that for sure.  It would be our largest snowfall since Feb. of 2021.  How sad is that?  

[james1976]

That heavy band just north of the TC is showing up on all the models.

[Hawkeye]

Models all appear to be on board the relative solid band of snow through Iowa, where the initial band overlaps the post-front band.

[FarmerRick]

NAM just pulled the rug out in Eastern NE. 

 

[Tony]

It's official, all 12z runs sucked for lack of a better word. By 12z tomorrow we should know if these runs were a fluke or onto something. 

[Grizzcoat]

More realistic 5-6" of snow, 50+mph gusts around DSM =

Sign me up everytime.

[Grizzcoat]

About as cold as it gets at the crack of noon in NW ND.

Ouch

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, Tony said:

It's official, all 12z runs sucked for lack of a better word. By 12z tomorrow we should know if these runs were a fluke or onto something. 

Looks like LOT moved up the start time of the Winter Storm Watch, which makes sense based on trend of an earlier frontal passage.

I can't imagine them not going with a warning of some kind in the end (whether it be Winter Storm or Blizzard), even in the event that snow amounts are marginal.  The cold and wind will be factored in to the decision.  Storm would really have to go to sh*t more than now for there to not be a warning imo.

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like LOT moved up the start time of the Winter Storm Watch, which makes sense based on trend of an earlier frontal passage.

I can't imagine them not going with a warning of some kind in the end (whether it be Winter Storm or Blizzard), even in the event that snow amounts are marginal.  The cold and wind will be factored in to the decision.  Storm would really have to go to sh*t more than now for there to not be a warning imo.

You think LOT gives it to the overnight shift to make the call?

[Bumblin Bman09]

Up in Gurnee near the Wisconsin state line.  Not looking good in terms of amounts.  Should’ve known the models would pull back significantly in the 2-3 days leading up to the event.  Ugh.  I’m hoping for 6” at this point 

[Hoosier]

Just now, gosaints said:

You think LOT gives it to the overnight shift to make the call?

For sure.  Actually wouldn't be surprised if they held off until tomorrow afternoon.

[OmahaSnowFan]

At this point I’m already looking ahead to next week’s warmth.
3” of wind blown snow that falls in the middle of the night is nothing amazing to look forward to.

[gosaints]

Just now, Hoosier said:

For sure.  Actually wouldn't be surprised if they held off until tomorrow afternoon.

Right they have time.  I think La Crosse will give it another shift as well

 

[Hoosier]

Good luck getting salt or anything else to work.  Even if temps end up a bit warmer than this.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

We’ve gone from 6-11” with snow likely starting Wednesday afternoon through noon Thursday, to 2-4” snow with snow chances not likely until Wednesday night and ending by 7am Thursday morning.

Puke.

[tStacsh]

I'm sure a watch will be issued shortly for Michigan

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

-70 wind chills in Wyoming 

That's crazy. For some perspective...

[Madtown]

wow...not happy at all... Lake effect up here even seems to disappear on the new runs today.

[jaster220]

Another Old School Rule of thumb. If you're in the icy pinks already, don't expect huge totals. Just too cold for that. Traditional biggies over SMI begin with temps around freezing

[jaster220]

Small novel from IWX

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

Opted to issue a winter storm watch for the entire CWA from Thursday
evening (Dec 22nd) into Saturday morning (Xmas Eve). Confidence in a
major winter storm occurring for our forecast area is high, however
there are still differences in the details that need to be
resolved.

Path: Model guidance is starting to converge on the key synoptic
features of this system, including the path/strength of the surface
low. A loosely organized area of low pressure extending from the
central plains up through MO/IL/IA/NE Wed night into Western Upper
MI will consolidate into a more compact system as upper level
forcing intensifies. By Thursday afternoon, the low is centered
right over Indiana at around 1000 hPa--and then by Friday morning it
drops as low as 975 hPa as it reaches Lake Huron. If you believe the
GFS, the low drops to 957 hPa Friday evening over Quebec! The point
is, this system is strong and is likely to cause significant impacts
to holiday travel--especially Dec 23 (the busiest travel day of the
year).

Precipitation Type/Timing: Models are still somewhat disagreeing on
the start time of the precipitation, but most of the guidance starts
around 9-12z Thu AM as a wintry mix of rain/snow then becomes mostly
rain as we go into the afternoon hours (mix with snow, changing over
to all snow in the north and west first). Thursday evening into
Friday morning we`ll see a rapid changeover to all snow, and the
system snow (moderate to heavy at times) continues through Saturday
morning. There is a high probability that locations in the west will
see greater than 6 inches of snow (especially near Lake MI where
lake enhancement occurs and lingers into the weekend). Confidence in
more significant snow accumulations lessens as you move further
eastward. Of course this is all assuming the forecasted thermal
profiles all work out exactly as planned (which they always do
right!?).

Ice/Flash Freeze: As far as freezing rain is concerned, don`t really
expect any major issues as the cold air advection behind the system
is pretty intense and the changeover to snow should be really quick.
It`s possible we see a couple brief periods of freezing rain and/or
drizzle, but it shouldn`t continue for that long of a duration if it
occurs. That being said, even in the absence of freezing rain,
temperatures falling from the mid 30s into the single digits and
teens Thursday evening into Friday morning may cause freezing of
any lingering water on roadways or sidewalks. This can make for a
real disaster-especially when that ice is covered up by new
snowfall.

Wind/Blowing & Drifting Snow: As anyone would expect of a rapidly
intensifying system...it packs a punch when it comes to wind. We
have high confidence that we`ll see westerly winds gust between 35
and 45 mph starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday
afternoon. Gusts of 45-55 mph are possible, especially Friday
afternoon and evening (inland) and then throughout a majority of the
event late Thursday night into Saturday morning (gale force gusts
continue into Saturday night). This is the primary reason for the
winter storm watch. Even if we do not get higher snow accumulations,
blizzard conditions are possible (sustained gusts to 35 mph or
greater and considerable falling or blowing snow that reduces
visibility to less than 1/4 mile). If we do get the greater snow
amounts, travel will be absolutely horrendous through Saturday
morning.

FRIGID Temps: As if this system wasn`t snippy enough, it pulls an
arctic airmass into the Great Lakes region that will linger through
the beginning of next week. Thursday afternoon high temperatures
will be in the 30s, then fall rapidly into the single digits and
teens by 7 am Friday...where they remain through the afternoon
(hence flash freeze mention above). Wind chills Friday through
Saturday night will fall as low as 20 to 30 below zero (coldest
south of US 30)-even during the daytime on Friday! HIGH temperatures
linger in the teens and single digits through Sunday before rising
into the upper teens and low 20s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in
the single digits above and below zero, then rise into the teens
early next week.

Lake Effect Snow: Throughout the event we`ll have west winds off
Lake Michigan providing some enhancement for greater snow totals.
Once the system exits the immediate vicinity on Saturday evening,
we`ll still have cyclonic flow aloft and at the surface, in addition
to lingering low level moisture. Expect decent lake effect snow in
the west-northwest wind favored snow belts through Sunday afternoon
when we are beneath the upper level ridge/subsidence and winds shift
southwestward with time. So clean up after the main winter storm may
be quite treacherous in areas that continue to see lake effect snow.

Monday into Tuesday we may see another clipper system, but models
disagree (rather significantly) on the main synoptic features so
left consensus chance pops on Monday for now (may need to move to
Tue). Temperatures moderate slightly.

&&

[indianajohn]

Pretty much…

[jaster220]

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good luck getting salt or anything else to work.  Even if temps end up a bit warmer than this.

 

Good. Tired of the 1" of salt after every few tenths of snow here in D-town

[Tom]

12z EPS really dried up things...I just wanna wish for a White Christmas and a Frigid one that makes it feel Festive.  That's all at this point.

 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Good. Tired of the 1" of salt after every few tenths of snow here in D-town

Yep.  I'd rather drive on plowed snow than plowed slush.  It's pointless.  Only salt when the forecast is close to freezing and some sun.   

[Madtown]

Have become a big fan of sand on plowed hard pack over the past 2 years. It beats salt slush icy spots hands down.

 

Any chance this thing comes back at all?

[indianajohn]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z EPS really dried up things...I just wanna wish for a White Christmas and a Frigid one that makes it feel Festive.  That's all at this point.

 

Wow this keeps trending the way it is it could be just sunny and cold… 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, chances14 said:

well this is still looking good for us here in southern michigan. I'm really rooting for that elusive blizzard warning that we haven't seen in SEMI in 12 years

12 yrs. So DTX did issue RED Headlines for Dec '00?? Was in Indiana then and pre-wx boards so Idk tbh

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like Winter Weather Advisory is what the local NWS offices are issuing (Hastings, North Platte, Goodland KS).  No blizzard warnings.

[chances14]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12 yrs. So DTX did issue RED Headlines for Dec '00?? Was in Indiana then and pre-wx boards so Idk tbh

not sure either. I just know the last blizzard warning for around here was the groundhog day storm in 2011

[bud2380]

Omaha issued Warnings

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected with brief freezing
  drizzle possible Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as
  high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold
  wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero.

[gosaints]

Green bay pops WWA for their whole forecast area

[Bellona]

2 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Green bay pops WWA for their whole forecast area

Wwa first,  then winter storm watch after.