Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Well, step one (to winter bliss) is already showing up on the long range 00z GEFS and EPS. A wave-1 -> wave-2 sudden stratospheric warming is now progged to occur the middle of December. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D9337414-73E9-4EC8-B589-05FC71C9A467_zpsn3we3txi.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Well, step one (to winter bliss) is already showing up on the long range 00z GEFS and EPS. A wave-1 -> wave-2 sudden stratospheric warming is now progged to occur the middle of December. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D9337414-73E9-4EC8-B589-05FC71C9A467_zpsn3we3txi.pngStep one? How many steps does it take? Is it a 12-step program? I'm a Snow-a-holic and I NEED MY D**n SNOW.... I'm getting withdrawal symptoms. I've been looking at Winter pics in the group and I get the shakes and jitters. WHEN !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Pretty big changes on 6z. Ridge through day 8 is not shoved as far east and seems to be building at 140 W. Hmmm... Model comparison Day 8 - 00z last nighthttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112700/192/500h_anom.na.png Day 8 - 6z http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112706/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Ridge just stops at 135 W. Very chilly run, especially Gorge east with a fairly deep cold pool compared to previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 6z GFS Extracted Data for Moses Lake. Yep, check out the extended period. That's pretty much a modified arctic air mass with highs in the 20s. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2017112706&text=KMWH I wonder if there will be any improvement on the ensembles. I hope so. We'll know in 5-10 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 6z GFS Extracted Data for Moses Lake. Yep, check out the extended period. That's pretty much a modified arctic air mass with highs in the 20s.http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2017112706&text=KMWH I wonder if there will be any improvement on the ensembles. I hope so. We'll know in 5-10 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 No the ensembles are almost unanimous in showing upper level ridging in the extended. One has to wonder when this breaks down if we don't head into a roaring Pacific firehose jet situation such as in late December 2005. That is probably the best early season example of fake cold, the preceding regime in Dec. 05'. Extended periods of "fake cold" are fairly rare this early though. Usually late December into January is a better time if we are talking more than a couple days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Climatologically speaking an AR situation the first or 2nd week of December would be a much better sign. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Climatologically speaking an AR situation the first or 2nd week of December would be a much better sign.Ya. The likely outcome will be a rather extensive cold pool and east winds. Still better than mild SW flow with no blocking. I think retrogression is possible, but I would lean towards the block breaking down and W-SW jet slamming us. 12z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Ya. The likely outcome will be a rather extensive cold pool and east winds. Still better than mild SW flow with no blocking. I think retrogression is possible, but I would lean towards the block breaking down and W-SW jet slamming us. 12z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes I agree with this. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Climatologically speaking an AR situation the first or 2nd week of December would be a much better sign. I was thinking about this yesterday. My sense is that cold and dry in the first 2 weeks of December tends to lead to another long-term rainy and warm scenario by Christmas and beyond. Example... 2005. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I was thinking about this yesterday. My sense is that cold and dry in the first 2 weeks of December tends to lead to another long-term rainy and warm scenario by Christmas and beyond. Example... 2005. I think 2005 is an extreme example, but obviously I agree with your overall point. Most of the blasts in the Dec 15-25 timeframe had an early December torch. I think December 2005 is an extreme example because it was a very extended fake cold episode, almost unprecedented for early December. We won't get that cold, and it won't last as long this time. Hopefully meaning any blow torch episode to follow only lasts a week or two. Could be more similar to the slightly below normal inversion pattern we had in December 2011. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 39 and mostly cloudy currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Quite frosty here this AM. 32F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Snow is back in the mtntns!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Snow is back in the mtntns!! Beautiful at Crystal Mountain this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Looks like the 00z is building that ridge overhead! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Looks like the 00z is building that ridge overhead!12z too. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The dry weather being talked about for next week reminds of 2005 and 2011. Dry and chilly starts to December in a -ENSO/-QBO situation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Step one? How many steps does it take? Is it a 12-step program? I'm a Snow-a-holic and I NEED MY d**n SNOW.... I'm getting withdrawal symptoms. I've been looking at Winter pics in the group and I get the shakes and jitters. WHEN !!!!Lmao. Actually that's step two, lol. Step one is developing the Siberian vortex to open the poleward WAFz train (already ongoing), step two is weakening the strat-PV, step three is retrograding the western ridge, step four is the the Arctic blast. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Lmao. Actually that's step two, lol. Step one is developing the Siberian vortex to open the poleward WAFz train (already ongoing), step two is weakening the strat-PV, step three is retrograding the western ridge, step four is the the Arctic blast. So.... Wednesday? Wednesday night? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 So.... Wednesday? Wednesday night?Thursday... the 4th day of the week in the 4 step program. Remember consistency is key. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The dry weather being talked about for next week reminds of 2005 and 2011. Dry and chilly starts to December in a -ENSO/-QBO situation. Yeah, I guess that means a cold March is certainly on the table... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I need to decide if tomorrow morning or Wednesday morning would be the better travel day over Snoqualmie Pass with a rear wheel drive van. The NWS forecast seems quite vague with “showers” and 2,500 snow levels yet the discussion says between 3-4K feet. Thoughts? Looks like it’s currently snowing pretty good up there. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I need to decide if tomorrow morning or Wednesday morning would be the better travel day over Snoqualmie Pass with a rear wheel drive van. The NWS forecast seems quite vague with “showers” and 2,500 snow levels yet the discussion says between 3-4K feet. Thoughts? Looks like it’s currently snowing pretty good up there. Neither morning looks real good. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Neither morning looks real good.That’s what I was afraid of. Okay thanks! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 That’s what I was afraid of. Okay thanks! I think maybe later Wednesday morning would be better. Precip looks pretty spotty that morning as opposed to the solid front tomorrow. I am just not sure if that front tomorrow is all snow at Snoqualmie Pass. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The dry weather being talked about for next week reminds of 2005 and 2011. Dry and chilly starts to December in a -ENSO/-QBO situation. There are several other -ENSO years that had something similar around this time period, too. Including some of the main analogs I've talked about. 1995: Dry/chilly from 12/4 to 12/8.1989: Dry/chilly from 12/9 to 12/181984: First week of the month.1954: 11/28 to 12/3 1962 also had something similar a little later in the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Could be a rough December for the mountains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Could be a rough December for the mountains.Emotionally crippling at 1,600’ in particular. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Emotionally crippling at 1,600’ in particular. I'm fine. This is pretty much exactly what I predicted for December. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 I'm fine. This is pretty much exactly what I predicted for December. On a side note 2011 is the only year I have not received accumulating snow in my 6 Decembers up here so far. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 On a side note 2011 is the only year I have not received accumulating snow in my 6 Decembers up here so far. From what I've heard, Jan-Mar kinda made up for that.... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 From what I've heard, Jan-Mar kinda made up for that.... In a big way. I just think people have their expectations set way to high this year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Pretty crazy how the 12z ensembles keep the ridge basically anchored in the same spot over Sitka from days 9-15. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The latest JMA/EPS/CFS weeklies are finally in agreement with regards to the retrogression in January. Some modest timing differences still, but the signal is unmistakable. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 In a big way. I just think people have their expectations set way to high this year. I think we'll truthfully be lucky to see half of what we saw last winter. But it's just the nature of how things work on here, stupidly high expectations early give way to unyielding pessimism by the time January comes around and someone has gotten "screwed". Very little even-handedness when it comes to weenie winterdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 Pretty crazy how the 12z ensembles keep the ridge basically anchored in the same spot over Sitka from days 9-15. Slightest, tiniest retro there near the end but yeah pretty impressive. At least some cold air starts to build on this side of the hemisphere late in the period. #stagnant Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 The 12z GFS wants to have some cold air entrenched over the middle of the country when I am there in a couple weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2017 Report Share Posted November 27, 2017 In a big way. I just think people have their expectations set way to high this year. Can't argue with cold, rock hard evidence. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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