November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day at Snoqualmie Pass... 33 degrees and dumping snow. 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The roses are still blooming at Snoqualmie.

[stuffradio]

It drives me insane, lol.

 

Remember that brief excursion into -PDO/-PNA/-ENSO from 2008-2012? What did that circulation look like, on the low frequency?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1D5BE360-2093-4238-80E2-66C92674DB18_zpsapf2o7uj.png

 

How did this circulation change during the 2013-2016 +ENSO cycle?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/121B0550-8F6B-4E26-9191-09EF9A6254A0_zps5euzvc54.png

Well remember what you and I were talking about last night, it has to do with the North Pacific Mode blowing up a ridge on the west coast and shoving a trough east.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, looks like a nice mountain snow pack building pattern for you guys for at least for the next week. Then the West really starts to torch...but again, the PNW may be right on the edge of it, at least at times. 

 

It doesn't really look like a widespread inversion pattern to me, but who knows at this point.

[TT-SEA]

The roses are still blooming at Snoqualmie.

 

Doubt they can even grow roses up there.   They do very well here though.   

[MossMan]

Quite the slug of moisture coming through now. More than I was expecting today... but at least its dumping snow at the pass. I am getting texts from sons who watch it like a hawk. They cannot wait to start to skiing.

I saw that...glad I travelled yesterday. Currently 46 and rain here at home.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, looks like a nice mountain snow pack building pattern for you guys for at least for the next week. Then the West really starts to torch...but again, the PNW may be right on the edge of it, at least at times. 

 

It doesn't really look like a widespread inversion pattern to me, but who knows at this point.

 

It's too close of a call this far out.  A complete tweener pattern.

[Front Ranger]

The roses are still blooming at Snoqualmie.

 

Indeed.

 

[Phil]

Looks very interesting. I will have to read it more in depth later. The one thing that has become increasingly clear with climate reconstruction is this region has dramatic climate shifts over rather short periods, which have huge implications for our winters. We are likely exiting one of the warmest periods in the NW in the past 1000 years.

Warmest since ~ 1100AD, yeah.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like one of the misinterpretations that seems to happen often here and elsewhere is that just reaching 32F is technically not a "freeze". Temps need to go below that mark to actually be considered a freeze as water does not begin to "freeze" until below that mark.

 

Sounds like Tims house hasn't even reached 32F though.

 

The NWS keeps track of lows 32 or below not below 32 though.  I suppose this can be debated until the cows come home.  It certainly freezes at 32 when it's clear...frost on the roof tops and windshields and skim ice on the small puddles in some cases.

[Phil]

Well remember what you and I were talking about last night, it has to do with the North Pacific Mode blowing up a ridge on the west coast and shoving a trough east.

Yeah. Though I'd argue they're both part of a bimodal wave locking process initiated in the tropics.

[snow_wizard]

It drives me insane, lol.

 

Remember that brief excursion into -PDO/-PNA/-ENSO from 2008-2012? What did that circulation look like, on the low frequency?

 

 

How did this circulation change during the 2013-2016 +ENSO cycle?

 

 

This also dis-spells the myth that -NAO is bad for the PNW.  In fact January 1969 was one of the most -NAO Januaries on record.

[HighlandExperience]

Warmest since ~ 1100AD, yeah.

Hope you are right. I can’t stand the idea of winters getting warmer for the next 50 years

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS shows periodic minor shots of chilly air through day 10 now.  Maybe a frost threat in there somewhere.

[snow_wizard]

Hope you are right. I can’t stand the idea of winters getting warmer for the next 50 years

 

I think we'll be fine.  It's pretty easy to demonstrate how favorable low solar activity is for this region.  Take the mins of the last 3 solar cycles.

 

1. Bottom around 1985 - 1984-85, 1985-86 were great winters

2. Bottom around 1996 - 1995-96, 1996-97 were great winters

3. Bottom around 2008 - 2008-09 perhaps the best winter region wide since 1968-69

 

With the prospects for increasingly deep solar minimums we should be looking good form that standpoint alone.

[umadbro]

My dad took this video about 30 minutes ago in Battle Ground. Visible rotation in there.

 

Scratch that. Won't upload.

[Geos]

The NWS keeps track of lows 32 or below not below 32 though.  I suppose this can be debated until the cows come home.  It certainly freezes at 32 when it's clear...frost on the roof tops and windshields and skim ice on the small puddles in some cases.

 

Yeah 32 usually just produced a lot of frost over everything. I always remember though, even though it's 32 degree on the thermometer, which should be 2m up, it can be colder at ground level. That's why you start seeing frost at 36-37 degrees.

[Jesse]

My dad took this video about 30 minutes ago in Battle Ground. Visible rotation in there.

 

Scratch that. Won't upload.

Urdadbro?

[Geos]

Only 47 here today and that was in the morning. Down to 45 now. 

 

Looks like some convection heading this way from the Kitsap.

 

[MossMan]

Yeah 32 usually just produced a lot of frost over everything. I always remember though, even though it's 32 degree on the thermometer, which should be 2m up, it can be colder at ground level. That's why you start seeing frost at 36-37 degrees.

Yeah back in my former life as a golf course superintendent anything from 36 degrees and below always prompted special care and possible frost delays, etc. I have seen instant damage to grass when being stepped on/driven on with an air temp of 34.

[Front Ranger]

I think we'll be fine.  It's pretty easy to demonstrate how favorable low solar activity is for this region.  Take the mins of the last 3 solar cycles.

 

1. Bottom around 1985 - 1984-85, 1985-86 were great winters

2. Bottom around 1996 - 1995-96, 1996-97 were great winters

3. Bottom around 2008 - 2008-09 perhaps the best winter region wide since 1968-69

 

With the prospects for increasingly deep solar minimums we should be looking good form that standpoint alone.

 

Going back further, it's clear that while other factors determine where the bulk of the cold goes, low solar winters are more likely to have high latitude blocking in general, and therefore more likely to deliver major cold air to the U.S.

 

It's also worth noting that the last solar min basically saw its bottom from 2008-2010, and 2009-10 and 2010-11 were also both very blocky winters, despite have very different ENSO.

[umadbro]

NWS confirmed that a tornado may have touched down outside of Battle Ground today.

[Deweydog]

NWS confirmed that a tornado may have touched down outside of Battle Ground today.

We had two big thunder rolls according to my son.

[Gradient Keeper]

Velocities definitely showed rotation and Reflectivity showed a notch too.

 

At the time that cell moved through Clark County
0-1km Shear: SW 25-30kts
0-6km Shear: W 20kts
0-3km Helicity: 200m2/s2
0-1km Helicity: 150-200m2/s2
That certainly is enough low level shear and helicity in the bottom 4000' of the atmosphere for updrafts to acquire spin if any cells organized and tapped into this. It's pretty evident the storm near Battle Ground did.

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 33 minutes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hawks playing gloomy like November in the Willamette Valley so far. I think they get beat again.

[Jesse]

Hawks playing gloomy like November in the Willamette Valley so far. I think they get beat again.

Hopefully the mods are as proactive about getting rid of sports posts this weekend as they were with this morning’s random purge.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully the mods are as proactive about getting rid of sports posts this weekend as they were with this morning’s random purge.

I suspect the chances just decreased.

[snow_wizard]

NWS confirmed that a tornado may have touched down outside of Battle Ground today.

 

Seems like there has been a lot of that the past couple of years.  I never would have thought about any serious convection today.

[Jesse]

I suspect the chances just decreased.

As long as they crack down on those annoying hiking pictures I’m fine.

[snow_wizard]

Going back further, it's clear that while other factors determine where the bulk of the cold goes, low solar winters are more likely to have high latitude blocking in general, and therefore more likely to deliver major cold air to the U.S.

 

It's also worth noting that the last solar min basically saw its bottom from 2008-2010, and 2009-10 and 2010-11 were also both very blocky winters, despite have very different ENSO.

 

Indeed.  It just seems like the atmosphere becomes more sluggish with low solar.  One can only imagine what the Maunder Minimum may have been like here.

[Front Ranger]

Hopefully the mods are as proactive about getting rid of sports posts this weekend as they were with this morning’s random purge.

Couple people got on the mods yesterday for lack of moderation. Guessing that had something to do with it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When i come on here and see sports posts my skin crawls.

[MossMan]

Currently 45 and cloudy. Quite the raw wet day!

[Phil]

Hope you are right. I can’t stand the idea of winters getting warmer for the next 50 years

I'm about as confident as I've ever been (for now). I'm not sure exactly how fast/slow the cooling trend will be, as much of it depends on the antecedent circulation, but I think it's safe to say 2014-2016 was sort of a multidecadal thermal maximum out there, similar to that of the late 1930s/early 1940s.

[Deweydog]

When i come on here and see sports posts my skin crawls.

There's a cream for that. Cools and comforts.

[Phil]

Indeed. It just seems like the atmosphere becomes more sluggish with low solar. One can only imagine what the Maunder Minimum may have been like here.

If the proxy records are accurate..it was cold and arid..actually the coldest period in over 8000 years (part of that is a result of decreasing high latitude insolation over that span).

[Phil]

This also dis-spells the myth that -NAO is bad for the PNW. In fact January 1969 was one of the most -NAO Januaries on record.

Exactly. Lots of fake news out there when it comes to the NAO.

 

Here too, the NAO is full of mythology. The 1960s were (by far) the most -NAO decade in the modern record, and we didn't have a single 20"+ blizzard here that entire decade. The last five years have been amongst the most +NAO on record, and we've smashed snowfall records left and right.

[Phil]

Man, the Pacific jet is DEAD right now.

 

All the way back into east Asia, even. No momentum source whatsoever. #blocking

[BLI snowman]

Exactly. Lots of fake news out there when it comes to the NAO.

 

Here too, the NAO is full of mythology. The 1960s were (by far) the most -NAO decade in the modern record, and we didn't have a single 20"+ blizzard here that entire decade. The last five years have been amongst the most +NAO on record, and we've smashed snowfall records left and right.

 

The 1960s were full of great winters in the Mid Atlantic, though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Man, the Pacific jet is DEAD right now.

 

All the way back into east Asia, even. No momentum source whatsoever. #blocking

Totally very glaring on this run. All we see are jet segments at times moving around the periphery of high pressure, but certainly nothing consolidated, no fire hose, nothing. Blocking reigns supreme.