New Year's Day Colorado Low

[gosaints]

North Msp to Hayward special

[Clinton]

6z Euro stalling the storm over Norther Iowa looks like it's going to occlude.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and Mean.  Impressive as you get on a 10:! map

[hawkstwelve]

06z GEFS was it's best run yet for FSD. Mean gets to 5.3 for the storm.

Although I'm still not putting hardly any stock into it, it would be nice to see the GFS and GEFS come around fully to the more SE track today. Kind of the last piece to the puzzle.

[hawkstwelve]

Speaking of coming around - after remaining steadfast with the GFS in showing a more NW track, the 12z NAM has now shifted more to the SE and is starting to look a bit more in line with the other models.

[gosaints]

Energy should be well sampled at 12z tomorrow morning 

[OmahaSnowFan]

So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like.

I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too.

Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms?

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD has said repeatedly, including again this morning, that they are really holding off on biting the bullet until the storm comes onshore this afternoon/evening. They think the models should then start really honing in on a track and solution at which point they will start estimating snow totals more earnestly. Although the fact they already hoisted a WSW shows the potential is strong. The WPC graphic for Monday paints a storm with far-reaching affects.

I'll probably start getting on the hype train after the 00z runs tonight and especially 12z runs tomorrow. Until then, cautiously optimistic. 

[Madtown]

Well how we looking folks Looks like rain/snow mix here.. hoping not, but...

[Bryan1117]

50 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like.

I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too.

Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms?

I am thinking the dry slot FTW… this pattern just isn’t going to budge for us.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1.

[Madtown]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where now FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1.

Can i see these over in the wisco area...of not no worries. Want to save them and compare to the actual event.

[hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, Madtown said:

Can i see these over in the wisco area...of not no worries. Want to save them and compare to the actual event.

Of course, my bad!

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

 

 

 

0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

 

 

 

0z GEPS...

 

 

That's some kind of wild h5 Low path. 

[hawkstwelve]

Wow. Over 20 inches for FSD on the 12z Euro.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro freezing rain forecast. This could be horrendous if it verifies. 

[Hawkeye]

Sioux Falls could really get clobbered.

Rain-wise, models have met in the middle for eastern Iowa.  The super dry GFS and super wet Euro were both wrong.  It's looking like 0.50-1.00".

[OmahaSnowFan]

I remember when the Euro had an east/west moving system and heavy snow band and the GFS was cutting hard and was southwest/northeast with the heavy snow band.

Now look at the Euro

Top image: Euro 12Z today 12/31

Bottom image: Euro 12Z Thursday 12/29 

[james1976]

15" at the MN home. I'd take it

[hawkstwelve]

Every time I've looked at the WSW it's been updated with increased totals. Now calling for 6-12 inches of snow with one tenth inch of ice. That ice number has gone down since this morning, thankfully. "Higher snow accumulations could be possible" also added to latest update. 

Trying to stay neutral on this thing till I can see the whites of the eyes but it's getting harder.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward Ho!!!

[sholomar]

 Pretty please with sugar on top... without the dry area that the models like to predict for the Coteau/Brookings.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings disco, gotta say I agree

“Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact storm track. Small changes in storm track north or south will have immense impacts on specific precipitation types and amounts. Thus, magnitude of storm impacts remains unclear”

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GEFS a bit more to the SE and now gives FSD 7.9 inches, highest yet shown on this model. 18z GFS deterministic remains a NW outlier even among its own ensembles.

[CentralNebWeather]

 NWS Hastings with a tremendous disco. They can’t believe how far off GFS and Euro are, considering we are not to far out from the storm. Said in these situations, they usually go with Euro/EPS. Very concerned about icing before the snow. Worst case scenario icing could lead to tree and power line concerns. Still looking for some adjustments in the next 24 hours. 

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GEFS a bit more to the SE and now gives FSD 7.9 inches, highest yet shown on this model. 18z GFS deterministic remains a NW outlier even among its own ensembles.

Reel in the Big Dog!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. 

[clintbeed1993]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. 

Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I think our biggest issue in my area will be freezing rain more than snow. 

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

Bombs it out in central Iowa, 6z Euro did something similar this morning.  The ensembles will be out in about 20 min lets see what they show.

[james1976]

Watch for 3-7 and a bit of ice for the St Paul metro. Hopefully higher totals and no ice lol.

[Clinton]

The Mean came south a little.

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z NAM’s look like GFS. Boo

[james1976]

Happy New Year to everyone in the forum! I've always enjoyed this place very much. Thank you all for allowing me to be a part of it. Cheers to a great 2023!

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

[Tom]

0z Euro really wraps this storm up before weakening/occluding...last minute surprises?

 

0z EPS... @gimmesnow @Snowshoe @MKEstorm

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. 

[gosaints]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. 

You look golden 

[hawkstwelve]

06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56.

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56.

Your patience will be rewarded...I felt bad for you when you missed out on the Thundersnow that hit YBY a little while ago, but now you will be rewarded with a bonafide Winter Storm.  This could be that storm you'll remember for a while.  Good luck bud!

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

LOL, which isn't happening this winter fyi

[WinterSquall23]

Biggest snowflakes some good dollar size mixed. Happy New year everyone. !

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM and 3km look nothing like previous runs for my area, and now look a little like the Euro. They put down ice then a good bit of snow for Central Nebraska. Last minute surprises?  I think @Tom mentioned that earlier. Official forecast has ice then 1-3” of snow. NWS Hastings has this graphic of potentially more. Interesting. 

[gosaints]

Slowing down.  Lots of runs left

[Hawkeye]

HRRR just getting into range.

[hawkstwelve]

12z RGEM looks pretty nice. Not as much for MBY but much better for Nebraska.

I'd rather share the wealth with this thing than score an ungodly amount of snow, especially knowing the run of bad luck my Nebraska neighbors have had in the snow department. Crossing my fingers it works out for everyone.

[jcwxguy]