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New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom

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12z NAM and 3km look nothing like previous runs for my area, and now look a little like the Euro. They put down ice then a good bit of snow for Central Nebraska. Last minute surprises?  I think @Tom mentioned that earlier. Official forecast has ice then 1-3” of snow. NWS Hastings has this graphic of potentially more. Interesting. A8D10209-48E1-4D19-949B-2A4AAF4232D7.thumb.png.3d627417c3cbd8649491d709c39a7bcb.png

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Moisture is off the charts with this system according to MPX. This system alone could bring the January monthly avg.

First the moisture, as mentioned in previous discussions, is off the charts for this time of year. Precipitable water values in the NAEFS are in the 90th to 99th percentile and liquid QPF values in excess of what we get in a normal January let along one storm. We could see over an inch of liquid QPF from this, which is well past MSP`s January normal of 0.89 inches. This isn`t driven by outliers either as for the Twin Cities, the mode of the LREF made of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles is over an inch. Now this isn`t a nice binomial distribution as the members with less than this mode outweigh those with more. It is a little hard to buy to much into these values that are so out of climatology, so until we get closer and have some higher resolution guidance to add in it will be hard to have much more confidence. Where there is increased confidence however is where the highest QPF will occur. All the main deterministic models now put this across southern Minnesota. So we are looking at a lot of QPF, but what will it fall as?

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The UK jumped southeast quite a bit this morning.

image.thumb.png.6dfa9ba3be233976e61ae40f6961df8f.png

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like me might have some bands again that will really effect accumulations over fairly small areas. The 12z RGEM, for example, hits my area hard. Other models have this band further west or north, or not at all. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro. That is what NWS  Hastings will be going with, in my opinion, as they’ve talked about it for days. image.thumb.png.56f107755bf3ca55e8d92de51a7099c8.png

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12z Euro

A few days ago the Euro was consistently showing 1-1.5" of rain across Iowa.  Now it has Cedar Rapids down to 0.40".  In other words, just another run-of-the-mill winter storm that dumps 12+" of snow to the nw and a modest soak here.

image.thumb.png.08d8579c9ab9046b9da887d17d23c36e.png

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS is not backing down... Aberdeen office just issued winter storm warnings. They seem to think Watertown is getting more snow than the latest models suggest.

Local point forecast says we are getting a foot now which is up 4 inches from this morning. Still looking good.

Ice storm warning just issued for Sioux City a minute ago.

Looking good for both Sioux Falls and Brookings. I will stay optimistic. :) The "bullseye" area hopefully hits between these two towns to share the fun. My mother is located on an acreage east of Madison in Lake County SD ... if they end up getting a foot or more she'll be stuck at home a couple of days.

Her forecast...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=195&y=75&site=fsd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=195&map_y=75

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10 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out.

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. 

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53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. 

Ugg remember that real well. I was going to college in Lincoln and we got mostly rain from that storm. That ice out west that year was an 1”+ thick. 

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD discussion mentions possibility of thundersnow!! And a potential Blizzard Warning looming on the horizon.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: This will be the period of greatest impacts
from this significant winter storm. Models have come into better
agreement on the track of the system, though still some slight
differences that could ultimately have a large impact on precip
types and amounts. Broad lift from the warm advection and advancing
upper level low Monday evening, is expected to become more focused
into an intense snowfall band by late evening into Tuesday morning.
This all in response to a TroWAL developing into the Tri-State area,
with coincident mid-level frontogenesis which is topped at times by
weak instability/negative EPV*. This should not only support a
narrowing snow band, but also snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour,
as indicated by HREF probabilities. On top of that, some solutions
show upright instability with low probabilities of greater than
100J/kg CAPE as far north as I-90 Monday night. All that to say we
could see another period of thundersnow with this storm, which would
ramp snowfall rates even higher. This most likely would occur in the
midnight to noon time frame on Tuesday, with the large majority of
the snow expected to fall within this window.

In addition to the snow, we continue to see the potential for at
least a period of stronger northerly winds, also during the Monday
night-Tuesday time frame, though confidence on speeds is still on
lower than confidence in the very heavy snowfall. In either case,
blowing snow looks to be a significant concern, but confidence is
not quite high enough to push out a Blizzard Warning just yet.

Unfortunately, those that do not see significant snowfall amounts
will likely see significant icing due to freezing rain. Portions of
eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and far southern Minnesota look
to be on track for this to occur, as the warm nose aloft lifts as
far north as I-90 Monday night before colder air pushes eastward
Tuesday morning. Given the amount of moisture with this system is
near the peak of climatology for early January, this could lead to a
major ice storm for parts of the region.

Congrats, that would be cool to see thunder snow! 

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78* tomorrow and 75% chance of rain.  
Heck of a January!🤠

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z RGEM looking better on snow totals and even more importantly, lessens ice amounts overall.

rgem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200.png

rgem-all-ncentus-frzr_total-2855200.png

Compare the to what the NAM shows and we realize real quick how difficult it is to work at the NWS.   

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Rain-wise, this thing continues to dry up for my area.  A few of the short-term models this evening have me down to only about 0.25".  🤦‍♂️  The Euro had 1.5" a few days ago.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

578E3381-E544-45DE-8B65-1765A3AA6A7C.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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