Jump to content
The Weather Forums

New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom

Recommended Posts

06z GEFS was it's best run yet for FSD. Mean gets to 5.3 for the storm.

Although I'm still not putting hardly any stock into it, it would be nice to see the GFS and GEFS come around fully to the more SE track today. Kind of the last piece to the puzzle.

gfs-ensemble-all-KFSD-total_snow_multirun-2466400.png

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS FSD has said repeatedly, including again this morning, that they are really holding off on biting the bullet until the storm comes onshore this afternoon/evening. They think the models should then start really honing in on a track and solution at which point they will start estimating snow totals more earnestly. Although the fact they already hoisted a WSW shows the potential is strong. The WPC graphic for Monday paints a storm with far-reaching affects.

I'll probably start getting on the hype train after the 00z runs tonight and especially 12z runs tomorrow. Until then, cautiously optimistic. 

Screenshot_20221231_094937_Vivaldi Browser.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like.

I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too.

Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms?

E0AF2C04-3AE7-4B4A-BA44-81FE2A25A539.jpeg

I am thinking the dry slot FTW… this pattern just isn’t going to budge for us.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200.png

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2963200.png

icon-all-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2833600.png

trend-ukmet-2022123112-f096.sn10_acc.us_nc.gif

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where now FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200.png

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2963200.png

icon-all-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2833600.png

trend-ukmet-2022123112-f096.sn10_acc.us_nc.gif

Can i see these over in the wisco area...of not no worries. Want to save them and compare to the actual event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

1.png

 

 

 

0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

2.png

 

5.png

 

 

0z GEPS...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

 

1.gif

That's some kind of wild h5 Low path. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sioux Falls could really get clobbered.

Rain-wise, models have met in the middle for eastern Iowa.  The super dry GFS and super wet Euro were both wrong.  It's looking like 0.50-1.00".

season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every time I've looked at the WSW it's been updated with increased totals. Now calling for 6-12 inches of snow with one tenth inch of ice. That ice number has gone down since this morning, thankfully. "Higher snow accumulations could be possible" also added to latest update. 

Trying to stay neutral on this thing till I can see the whites of the eyes but it's getting harder.

  • lol 1

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 NWS Hastings with a tremendous disco. They can’t believe how far off GFS and Euro are, considering we are not to far out from the storm. Said in these situations, they usually go with Euro/EPS. Very concerned about icing before the snow. Worst case scenario icing could lead to tree and power line concerns. Still looking for some adjustments in the next 24 hours. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

Bombs it out in central Iowa, 6z Euro did something similar this morning.  The ensembles will be out in about 20 min lets see what they show.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. 

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200-1.png

gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-2855200.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2855200.png

You look golden 

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2941600-1.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2941600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2876800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-2876800.png

Your patience will be rewarded...I felt bad for you when you missed out on the Thundersnow that hit YBY a little while ago, but now you will be rewarded with a bonafide Winter Storm.  This could be that storm you'll remember for a while.  Good luck bud!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

LOL, which isn't happening this winter fyi

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM and 3km look nothing like previous runs for my area, and now look a little like the Euro. They put down ice then a good bit of snow for Central Nebraska. Last minute surprises?  I think @Tom mentioned that earlier. Official forecast has ice then 1-3” of snow. NWS Hastings has this graphic of potentially more. Interesting. A8D10209-48E1-4D19-949B-2A4AAF4232D7.thumb.png.3d627417c3cbd8649491d709c39a7bcb.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z RGEM looks pretty nice. Not as much for MBY but much better for Nebraska.

I'd rather share the wealth with this thing than score an ungodly amount of snow, especially knowing the run of bad luck my Nebraska neighbors have had in the snow department. Crossing my fingers it works out for everyone.

rgem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2876800.png

  • Like 2

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...