New Year's Day Colorado Low

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Geeze, from thinking this storm is going to miss my area without any chance of seeing any snow till sometime after the 6th/7th, this storm could deliver some wrap-around snow as it gets blocked up over the GL's.

The Euro has it blocked up real good and that's the difference between it and the GFS.

12z Euro

12z GFS has the block further east over Ontario.

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS was a definite step to the SE vs it's 12z run. Time will tell if the 00z finally sees the GFS give in or if it keeps beating the same drum.

[OmahaSnowFan]

.1” of rain from the GFS or 3/4” of ice and 8” of snow from the Euro here in Omaha…

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

.1” of rain from the GFS or 3/4” of ice and 8” of snow from the Euro here in Omaha…

It would be a lot easier to dismiss the GFS if it wasn't showing the very thing that has been going on in your area all year.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, james1976 said:

Am I reeling it in?

Minny = $$$ this winter

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It would be a lot easier to dismiss the GFS if it wasn't showing the very thing that has been going on in your area all year.

Exactly!

[hawkstwelve]

Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?!

No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS looking another notch to the SE through early Tues AM.

Look at it compared to the 12z. It's on its way to the more SE camp.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEM fairly similar to it's 12z run with the placement of the axis of heavier snowfall, just spread around a bit differently. To be expected at this range.

[hawkstwelve]

00z UKMET slightly more to the NW than 12z but not as much as last night's 00z. A bit less QPF overall. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Euro with the Omadome!!

[Tom]

0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year.  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

0z EPS...

[Tom]

0z EPS...this should be a nice looking comma on radar....#trackingthedefoband

[hawkstwelve]

06z EPS and EPS control run.

EPS is pretty much locked in on the track at this point. Hasn't really fluctuated at all besides slight variations in the totals. Control run is a slight tick to the NW vs it's 00z run.

 

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year.  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

0z EPS...

I agree and if you use the past to predict the future it's pretty clear the Euro is doing a better job especially with the block being over the top.

Go back to 11/15 and you can see the storm in question in SW Neb and a blocking high over southern Canada.

Current modeling from the Euro shows this same block, this time further south over ND.  The reason the block is further south this time is because it's January and not November and this is a seasonal difference.  The GFS does not show this block over the top.

0z Euro

6z GFS

[hawkstwelve]

GEFS shows a 0% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow while the EPS shows a 70-80% chance. 

Wonder how much longer it's going to take for the GFS and it's ensemble suite to see the light of day with this thing. Maybe by tomorrow night when the system finally enters the PNW?

Either way, what an embarrassing performance it will have had for both yesterday's and Monday's systems. Pretty much going to continue writing off whatever this inferior model spits out and ride with #TeamEuro (with a splash of the Canadian on the side) all the way through the rest of the season.

[WinterSquall23]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

GEFS shows a 0% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow while the EPS shows a 70-80% chance. 

Wonder how much longer it's going to take for the GFS and it's ensemble suite to see the light of day with this thing. Maybe by tomorrow night when the system finally enters the PNW?

Either way, what an embarrassing performance it will have had for both yesterday's and Monday's systems. Pretty much going to continue writing off whatever this inferior model spits out and ride with #TeamEuro (with a splash of the Canadian on the side) all the way through the rest of the season.

I wonder if they just need to tweak the GFS model as it seems to susceptible to every little change which could be just noise.  There are camps on both sides, but  my weather app looks like a slot machine every day it changes we have a storm then we don’t.  Could be a testament to how the strong the jet is.  Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place.  Oh well . 

[Beltrami Island]

5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place.  Oh well .

This is the chicken or the egg problem because if cold air was in place, the gulf moisture in that amount wouldn't be making it that far up north most of the time. 

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa.  The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa.  The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast.  A big dry slot surges up through Iowa.  I hate systems that do that.  The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier.  There is widespread significant rain across much of the state.  I'm definitely rooting for that scenario.

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa.  The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa.  The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast.  A big dry slot surges up through Iowa.  I hate systems that do that.  The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier.  There is widespread significant rain across much of the state.  I'm definitely rooting for that scenario.

12z Canadian is very similar to the Euro. 

[hawkstwelve]

Another shift to the SE for the 12z GFS but still doesn't get there all the way.

[hawkstwelve]

12z ICON looks nice for FSD, especially for being 10:1. A shift to the SE vs it's 00z run.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM fairly similar with axis placement but just fluctuating totals around a bit. It is showing more sleet and ZR than the other models, but I think it has a tendency to do that.

[hawkstwelve]

Last four runs of the GEFS. Latest 12z run definitely had a shift to the SE.

It'll get there... Eventually.

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM fairly similar with axis placement but just fluctuating totals around a bit. It is showing more sleet and ZR than the other models, but I think it has a tendency to do that.

That is why snow totals are lower on this model for Central Nebraska. This would be very problematic if this ice forecast verifies. 

[Hawkeye]

UK 00z -> 12z

[jaster220]

17 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?!

No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process.

Run with the EPS. Most realistic model attm. OPs are over-inflated snow amounts. Not to mention track waffles. Nice to see like 1 poster excited for this storm.

[Tony]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year.  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

0z EPS...

For our area, I expect maybe a dusting if the Euro is correct. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEPS sure looks an awful lot like the 06z EPS I posted a bit earlier. Starting to get some consistency among ensembles? Possibly. Well, minus the lonely GEFS...

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro are not that far apart with the low's pressure and location, but look at Iowa.  The GFS seems ridiculously weak and dry along the low track for a pretty decent system like this one.

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro totals through Wednesday morning. Axis more or less the same with some accumulation fluctuations on either side and within the band. More than 00z for most of Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro freezing rain. 

[hawkstwelve]

Best mean yet for FSD on the 12z EPS. I'm starting to feel kinda good about this.

[Madtown]

Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling their weekend rentals due to trail conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS control run looking pretty nice too. This would be about two feet for FSD using Kuchera.

[Hawkeye]

One thing we know for sure is that Minneapolis will get another 8".

[Snowshoe]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling there weekend rentals due to conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 

Lets go EURO!

[Bellona]

I don't expect anything much here, cold rain. Have to slide a good 100 miles for me to get into wintry precip. Biggest snowfall I've had so far was the clipper on Sunday night, got about 3.5. Only had 2.5 with the previous. It seems more and more the bigger snows in my area are in February. 

[Madtown]

Just now, Snowshoe said:

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 

Lets go EURO!

Wouldn't have been that bad, but the traffic with the temps yesterday was just too much...corners are bare..groomers got em back into ok shape early this am, but man gonna be am uphill battle now for the next few weeks.

[hawkstwelve]

Now an 80-90% chance of exceeding 6 inches on the EPS. 30-40% for 12+ inches.

[hawkstwelve]

Haven't seen this much pepto on the EPS since February 2019 in the PNW.

[sholomar]

I went from a 55 degree stroll along Lake Michigan in Port Washington WI on Thursday to returning to 6-8 inches of snowcover and 27 degrees in Brookings. Might as well double that with a nice storm. Not going to obsess over the models too much this weekend. Don't want to be set up for disappointment.   

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings still not sure if the southern or northern track verifies. Said if southern track pans out, it would be a memorable, classic winter Storm of ice and storm. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro has about 3 inches more for FSD than 12z run through Tues AM, which is where the run ends. If this was extrapolated a bit, it would probably be a very snowy run. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEM with a shift to the NW. The plot thickens.

Edit: Also showing more freezing rain. Booooo.

[OmahaSnowFan]

At this point it’s whether we get 0.00” of any kind of moisture or a tiny bit of rain/freezing rain/or snow.

When’s spring coming?

[gabel23]

Looks like the euro is the one who caves. At least in terms of snowfall; I can’t see the frozen precip total but looks like it’s pretty much ice, rain or dry slot for us again. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward-ho!!!

Southern side of snow shield disappearing on the 0Z Euro

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Monday and Tuesday. Currently calling for 5-7 inches and up to 0.30 of ice. 

Here's a snippet of the morning AFD from NWS FSD...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Confidence continues to grow on an impactful winter
storm affecting the region for the beginning of the week as an upper
level trough over the western CONUS pivots into the Plains states,
and a deepening surface low over the Central Rockies follows suit.
Even with the growing confidence, differences do remain among the
various models and ensembles with regard to the exact storm track.
The deterministic GFS and ensembles continue with the most northerly
solution, while the ECMWF remains the furthest south. That being
said, the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and ensembles have shifted
slightly farther to the north than previous model runs - closer in
line with the deterministic Canadian and ensembles. Because of that,
the GFS is trending toward being the bigger outlier. As has been
stated previously, the eventual track of the system will play a part
in where the heaviest snow occurs - and whom receives the most
potential for freezing rain on the south side of the system. Current
ECMWF/Canadian ensembles support a 60 percent or greater probability
of 6 inches or more of snow roughly from south central SD and the
mid MO River Valley northeastward into southwestern MN. In light of
that, elected to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Monday and Tuesday
for that area - with refinement likely over the next day or two. To
the south and east of this area, ice accumulation seems more likely -
 at least initially, and this will be dealt with in future updates
as models hopefully converge on the most likely solution. What is
becoming more certain is that major impacts are expected somewhere
in our area for that time period, so continue to monitor the
forecast into next week.

[Tom]

0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

 

 

 

0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

 

 

 

0z GEPS...