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New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Geeze, from thinking this storm is going to miss my area without any chance of seeing any snow till sometime after the 6th/7th, this storm could deliver some wrap-around snow as it gets blocked up over the GL's.

The Euro has it blocked up real good and that's the difference between it and the GFS.

12z Euro

ecmwf_z500a_namer_42.png

12z GFS has the block further east over Ontario.

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

 

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6 hours ago, james1976 said:

Am I reeling it in?🤣

Minny = $$$ this winter

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?!

No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2855200-1.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KFSD-total_snow_multirun-2315200.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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06z EPS and EPS control run.

EPS is pretty much locked in on the track at this point. Hasn't really fluctuated at all besides slight variations in the totals. Control run is a slight tick to the NW vs it's 00z run.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2855200-2.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2812000.png

 

 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year.  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather

 

image.png

 

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0z EPS...

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I agree and if you use the past to predict the future it's pretty clear the Euro is doing a better job especially with the block being over the top.

Go back to 11/15 and you can see the storm in question in SW Neb and a blocking high over southern Canada.

image.thumb.png.a05edc1dcde21061a429e7319d24f7ad.png

Current modeling from the Euro shows this same block, this time further south over ND.  The reason the block is further south this time is because it's January and not November and this is a seasonal difference.  The GFS does not show this block over the top.

0z Euro

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

6z GFS

gfs_z500a_namer_18.png

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GEFS shows a 0% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow while the EPS shows a 70-80% chance. 

Wonder how much longer it's going to take for the GFS and it's ensemble suite to see the light of day with this thing. Maybe by tomorrow night when the system finally enters the PNW?

Either way, what an embarrassing performance it will have had for both yesterday's and Monday's systems. Pretty much going to continue writing off whatever this inferior model spits out and ride with #TeamEuro (with a splash of the Canadian on the side) all the way through the rest of the season.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ncentus-snow_ge_6-2833600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-snow_ge_6-2833600-1.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

GEFS shows a 0% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow while the EPS shows a 70-80% chance. 

Wonder how much longer it's going to take for the GFS and it's ensemble suite to see the light of day with this thing. Maybe by tomorrow night when the system finally enters the PNW?

Either way, what an embarrassing performance it will have had for both yesterday's and Monday's systems. Pretty much going to continue writing off whatever this inferior model spits out and ride with #TeamEuro (with a splash of the Canadian on the side) all the way through the rest of the season.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ncentus-snow_ge_6-2833600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-snow_ge_6-2833600-1.png

I wonder if they just need to tweak the GFS model as it seems to susceptible to every little change which could be just noise.  There are camps on both sides, but  my weather app looks like a slot machine every day it changes we have a storm then we don’t.  Could be a testament to how the strong the jet is.  Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place.  Oh well . 63A59BE8-8251-44BB-BEF1-02BFD908396D.thumb.png.c008bd837da6c3bad666a266c94e57af.png

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5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place.  Oh well .

This is the chicken or the egg problem because if cold air was in place, the gulf moisture in that amount wouldn't be making it that far up north most of the time. 

 

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The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa.  The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa.  The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast.  A big dry slot surges up through Iowa.  I hate systems that do that.  The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier.  There is widespread significant rain across much of the state.  I'm definitely rooting for that scenario.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa.  The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa.  The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast.  A big dry slot surges up through Iowa.  I hate systems that do that.  The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier.  There is widespread significant rain across much of the state.  I'm definitely rooting for that scenario.

12z Canadian is very similar to the Euro. 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM fairly similar with axis placement but just fluctuating totals around a bit. It is showing more sleet and ZR than the other models, but I think it has a tendency to do that.

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2898400.png

gem-all-ncentus-sleet_total-2758000.png

gem-all-ncentus-frzr_total-2758000.png

That is why snow totals are lower on this model for Central Nebraska. This would be very problematic if this ice forecast verifies. 

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17 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?!

No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2855200-1.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KFSD-total_snow_multirun-2315200.png

Run with the EPS. Most realistic model attm. OPs are over-inflated snow amounts. Not to mention track waffles. Nice to see like 1 poster excited for this storm.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS and Euro are not that far apart with the low's pressure and location, but look at Iowa.  The GFS seems ridiculously weak and dry along the low track for a pretty decent system like this one.

models-2022123012-f090.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.thumb.gif.546cc58af5ed30ebf3b5da60ec19a593.gif

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro🙂

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling their weekend rentals due to trail conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

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2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro🙂

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling there weekend rentals due to conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 🤮

Lets go EURO!

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I don't expect anything much here, cold rain. Have to slide a good 100 miles for me to get into wintry precip. Biggest snowfall I've had so far was the clipper on Sunday night, got about 3.5. Only had 2.5 with the previous. It seems more and more the bigger snows in my area are in February. 

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Just now, Snowshoe said:

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 🤮

Lets go EURO!

Wouldn't have been that bad, but the traffic with the temps yesterday was just too much...corners are bare..groomers got em back into ok shape early this am, but man gonna be am uphill battle now for the next few weeks.

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I went from a 55 degree stroll along Lake Michigan in Port Washington WI on Thursday to returning to 6-8 inches of snowcover and 27 degrees in Brookings. Might as well double that with a nice storm. Not going to obsess over the models too much this weekend. Don't want to be set up for disappointment. :)  

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Winter Storm Watch issued for Monday and Tuesday. Currently calling for 5-7 inches and up to 0.30 of ice. 

Here's a snippet of the morning AFD from NWS FSD...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Confidence continues to grow on an impactful winter
storm affecting the region for the beginning of the week as an upper
level trough over the western CONUS pivots into the Plains states,
and a deepening surface low over the Central Rockies follows suit.
Even with the growing confidence, differences do remain among the
various models and ensembles with regard to the exact storm track.
The deterministic GFS and ensembles continue with the most northerly
solution, while the ECMWF remains the furthest south. That being
said, the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and ensembles have shifted
slightly farther to the north than previous model runs - closer in
line with the deterministic Canadian and ensembles. Because of that,
the GFS is trending toward being the bigger outlier. As has been
stated previously, the eventual track of the system will play a part
in where the heaviest snow occurs - and whom receives the most
potential for freezing rain on the south side of the system. Current
ECMWF/Canadian ensembles support a 60 percent or greater probability
of 6 inches or more of snow roughly from south central SD and the
mid MO River Valley northeastward into southwestern MN. In light of
that, elected to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Monday and Tuesday
for that area - with refinement likely over the next day or two. To
the south and east of this area, ice accumulation seems more likely -
 at least initially, and this will be dealt with in future updates
as models hopefully converge on the most likely solution. What is
becoming more certain is that major impacts are expected somewhere
in our area for that time period, so continue to monitor the
forecast into next week.
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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

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0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

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0z GEPS...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

 

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