New Year's Day Colorado Low

[Hawkeye]

UK 00z -> 12z

[jaster220]

17 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?!

No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process.

Run with the EPS. Most realistic model attm. OPs are over-inflated snow amounts. Not to mention track waffles. Nice to see like 1 poster excited for this storm.

[Tony]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year.  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

0z EPS...

For our area, I expect maybe a dusting if the Euro is correct. 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro are not that far apart with the low's pressure and location, but look at Iowa.  The GFS seems ridiculously weak and dry along the low track for a pretty decent system like this one.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro freezing rain. 

[Madtown]

Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling their weekend rentals due to trail conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

[Hawkeye]

One thing we know for sure is that Minneapolis will get another 8".

[Snowshoe]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro

Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling there weekend rentals due to conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. 

 

We need snow!

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 

Lets go EURO!

[Bellona]

I don't expect anything much here, cold rain. Have to slide a good 100 miles for me to get into wintry precip. Biggest snowfall I've had so far was the clipper on Sunday night, got about 3.5. Only had 2.5 with the previous. It seems more and more the bigger snows in my area are in February. 

[Madtown]

Just now, Snowshoe said:

From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. 

Lets go EURO!

Wouldn't have been that bad, but the traffic with the temps yesterday was just too much...corners are bare..groomers got em back into ok shape early this am, but man gonna be am uphill battle now for the next few weeks.

[sholomar]

I went from a 55 degree stroll along Lake Michigan in Port Washington WI on Thursday to returning to 6-8 inches of snowcover and 27 degrees in Brookings. Might as well double that with a nice storm. Not going to obsess over the models too much this weekend. Don't want to be set up for disappointment.   

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings still not sure if the southern or northern track verifies. Said if southern track pans out, it would be a memorable, classic winter Storm of ice and storm. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

At this point it’s whether we get 0.00” of any kind of moisture or a tiny bit of rain/freezing rain/or snow.

When’s spring coming?

[gabel23]

Looks like the euro is the one who caves. At least in terms of snowfall; I can’t see the frozen precip total but looks like it’s pretty much ice, rain or dry slot for us again. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward-ho!!!

Southern side of snow shield disappearing on the 0Z Euro

[Tom]

0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

 

 

 

0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

 

 

 

0z GEPS...

 

 

[gosaints]

North Msp to Hayward special

[Clinton]

6z Euro stalling the storm over Norther Iowa looks like it's going to occlude.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and Mean.  Impressive as you get on a 10:! map

[gosaints]

Energy should be well sampled at 12z tomorrow morning 

[OmahaSnowFan]

So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like.

I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too.

Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms?

[Madtown]

Well how we looking folks Looks like rain/snow mix here.. hoping not, but...

[Bryan1117]

50 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like.

I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too.

Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms?

I am thinking the dry slot FTW… this pattern just isn’t going to budge for us.

[Madtown]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where now FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1.

Can i see these over in the wisco area...of not no worries. Want to save them and compare to the actual event.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY.  I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat

 

 

 

0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground???  Maybe.  Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks.  Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period.

 

 

 

0z GEPS...

 

 

That's some kind of wild h5 Low path. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro freezing rain forecast. This could be horrendous if it verifies. 

[Hawkeye]

Sioux Falls could really get clobbered.

Rain-wise, models have met in the middle for eastern Iowa.  The super dry GFS and super wet Euro were both wrong.  It's looking like 0.50-1.00".

[OmahaSnowFan]

I remember when the Euro had an east/west moving system and heavy snow band and the GFS was cutting hard and was southwest/northeast with the heavy snow band.

Now look at the Euro

Top image: Euro 12Z today 12/31

Bottom image: Euro 12Z Thursday 12/29 

[james1976]

15" at the MN home. I'd take it

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward Ho!!!

[sholomar]

 Pretty please with sugar on top... without the dry area that the models like to predict for the Coteau/Brookings.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings disco, gotta say I agree

“Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact storm track. Small changes in storm track north or south will have immense impacts on specific precipitation types and amounts. Thus, magnitude of storm impacts remains unclear”

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 NWS Hastings with a tremendous disco. They can’t believe how far off GFS and Euro are, considering we are not to far out from the storm. Said in these situations, they usually go with Euro/EPS. Very concerned about icing before the snow. Worst case scenario icing could lead to tree and power line concerns. Still looking for some adjustments in the next 24 hours. 

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GEFS a bit more to the SE and now gives FSD 7.9 inches, highest yet shown on this model. 18z GFS deterministic remains a NW outlier even among its own ensembles.

Reel in the Big Dog!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. 

[clintbeed1993]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. 

Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I think our biggest issue in my area will be freezing rain more than snow. 

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

Bombs it out in central Iowa, 6z Euro did something similar this morning.  The ensembles will be out in about 20 min lets see what they show.

[james1976]

Watch for 3-7 and a bit of ice for the St Paul metro. Hopefully higher totals and no ice lol.

[Clinton]

The Mean came south a little.

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z NAM’s look like GFS. Boo

[james1976]

Happy New Year to everyone in the forum! I've always enjoyed this place very much. Thank you all for allowing me to be a part of it. Cheers to a great 2023!

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

[Tom]

0z Euro really wraps this storm up before weakening/occluding...last minute surprises?

 

0z EPS... @gimmesnow @Snowshoe @MKEstorm

 

 

[gosaints]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. 

You look golden 

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56.

Your patience will be rewarded...I felt bad for you when you missed out on the Thundersnow that hit YBY a little while ago, but now you will be rewarded with a bonafide Winter Storm.  This could be that storm you'll remember for a while.  Good luck bud!

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

LOL, which isn't happening this winter fyi