New Year's Day Colorado Low

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though.

Yup and the nose of 12+ thru the TC. Could be an interesting Monday night.

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 

 

5 hours ago, Andie said:

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas.  A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region.  @Andie and @Iceresistance will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4 will need to have an eye to the sky this evening.  I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk.

 

[Tom]

This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago.  It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu.  I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW.

0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm...

[Tom]

0z EPS...

[gosaints]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...

Gonna really be a nowcast for the MSP forecast area.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds.

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

[Tom]

This storm so far has dumped 2+ Feet in Park City right...the Sierra Mtn's up near Tahoe got another storm to dump 20-50".  How many storms has this been?  Geeze, what a freakin' winter they are seeing out west!

 

I think I posted some videos back in Aug when I was at Park City at this place "The Canyons Village"...I'd love to be there right about now!  It probably magical with the fine powder, aka, Champaign Powder!

 

[Andie]

67 this morning with humidity at 90%. 
Heavy overcast. 
No action yet just a grim morning generally.  

[gosaints]

It's amazing how far apart some of these models as it relates to sensible weather with this system

[WinterSquall23]

12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Look at the difference for Central Nebraska between tonight's 00z and last night's 00z run.

It’s like the GFS sneezed!  Wow!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

[james1976]

Did this thing slow down? My warning has been pushed back 6 hours.

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Did this thing slow down? My warning has been pushed back 6 hours.

Yes.  It's usa vs the world up there.  Both Canadians are 12+

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

Preview of @hawkstwelves place come Wed morning

[james1976]

41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

Wider area of 9+ for Eastern MN into NW WI. Wow. Go Euro!

[james1976]

My warning went from 4-8 from this morning's update to 5-9 inches with the latest update.

[gabel23]

Man riding the fine line for my area. Temps are gonna play a huge role. Currently at 33.3 degrees I’m hoping I don’t get any higher than that.

[gosaints]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Man riding the fine line for my area. Temps are gonna play a huge role. Currently at 33.3 degrees I’m hoping I don’t get any higher than that.

What's your dew point?

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, gosaints said:

What's your dew point?

32.4

[gabel23]

Freezing rain confidence just to my north. 

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

This would be a nice surprise

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

Not enough snow there.

[Bryan1117]

5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

Nothing beats a cold January rain . Guess we should be thankful for the moisture though.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already .02” of a cold 35 degree rain has fallen.

Now to wait for the tstorms in Kansas to try and make it here.

[CentralNebWeather]

[gabel23]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I seen that! It’s about to get crazy for us! Am I reading that right ice then 4-8” of snow???

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I seen that! It’s about to get crazy for us! Am I reading that right ice then 4-8” of snow???

That seems high for us, unless there is convection with a heavy snow band. 

[gabel23]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

That seems high for us, unless there is convection with a heavy snow band. 

I read it further, basically they are saying if cold air moves in faster we get more snow than ice. I’m hoping that happens. Currently sitting at 32.0 and .20” of rain. I’ll take the precip 

[james1976]

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

[mlgamer]

Hard to believe but this storm has produced a tornado watch only three counties south of me...on Jan 2 no less.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy combination of every type of frozen precipitation you can think of. Very nasty. County Sheriff reporting accidents. Why anyone is out is a mystery with all the warnings issued about no travel advised. When this switches to snow will be important to snowfall amounts. 

[Andie]

Currently 71 

Humidity 64%. 

Pretty sticky right now. Thankfully it’s not hot.  Odd for January. 
 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@Iceresistance, Thanks for the shoutout on the warm sector over here. Looking like a tense night for me. 

Tornadic storm in Sequoyah County now.

[james1976]

Pushing a foot now on 18z Euro!

[Bellona]

Getting some sleet here in Waterloo. Nothing accumulating we are sitting at 33 at my house.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

Ofc, it's MSP - enjoy!

[CentralNebWeather]

Weather doesn’t seem that important right now after watching the injury and collapse of Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The best kind of weather you can get with a big storm system

32.5 degrees and raining.

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Weather doesn’t seem that important right now after watching the injury and collapse of Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills. 

Scariest thing I have ever seen. Been a bills fan since I was 5 yrs old. Just so hard to believe. I just hope it’s not another hank gathers which is the only thing I can make sense of. He got drilled in the chest and he had a bad heart. Prayers out to Hamlin and family. 

[james1976]

Ummm...warning now from 7am-6pm Tuesday with a WWA from 6pm Tuesday-6pm Wednesday and for a total of 4-7". Lol. This thing has literally been pushed back 16 hours and now dropped dramatically in totals. Something must have changed a lot for MSP with tonight's models.

Nvm "few more inches after the 4-7" so I guess still on track with totals just keeps getting pushed back. Storm must be crawling.

Edited January 3 by james1976

[Black Hole]

I was square in the middle of the tornado watch today but mostly a disappointment. I got one cell with some dime sized hail and 1/3" of rain in about 5-10 minutes, but most of the Tulsa area saw very little. Go east about an hour and things really picked up with a few tornadoes, etc. 

Pretty wild for Jan 2nd even if it was mostly a disappointment. Lets bring back the snow now! 

[Black Hole]

Medium range ensemble guidance mostly still keeping that mega trough in place along the west coast. This yields mild southwest flow for OK with some periodic rain chances. Obviously if any troughs eject inland we get a severe threat. 

[Clinton]

Wet evening in KC and it was also the 17th wettest January day ever.

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

***RECORD***As of 10PM...Kansas City has received 1.08" of rain. This breaks the daily rainfall record of 0.94" set a few years ago in 1897. Normal precipitation for the entire month of January in KC is 1.16" so we almost reached that just today! #DroughtBustin

[sholomar]

Congrats to Sioux Falls. We haven't even gotten a dusting yet in Brookings. I should know better by now to trust the NWS over KELO as their snowfall predictions are usually much more accurate. They trust the European model and pretty much nobody else.  Enough storms being overhyped where they predict double the actual snowfall you'd think I learn my lesson by now.

No more following potential storms days ahead of time using models for me. It almost always leads to disappointment. No more trusting the NWS.

[Tom]

@hawkstwelveHere comes that Defo Band...Man, those embedded storms wrapping into the cold sector should produce some heft rates for ya this morning...

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...MSP Magnet...the best track and outcome you can ask for as the storm slows down and stalls just to your east...

 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are at about 8 inches here for this event so far, although it's very hard to measure with the drifts. Heavy snow continuing to fall with a temp of 21.

Congrats on reeling this one in... just saw that heavy snow, thunder, and 0.13 mile visibility was reported at Foss Field around 9:00am - that's wild... Enjoy the snowstorm! Wishing that I was back in Sioux Falls today (by the way between 2013-2019 I traveled up to Sioux Falls for work 2-3 times a month and really enjoyed going up there - always enjoyed downtown and the Phillips Avenue area).

Here in Omaha we are getting a mix of rain, sleet, and wet snow now (after getting some thunderstorms earlier this morning). We picked up 0.60" of rain in my backyard so at least we got some decent moisture out of this system. Honestly I can't remember the last time we have had thunderstorms in Omaha during both the months of December and January.  

[bud2380]

Fairly small area of heavy snow so far, but where it is falling, it looks to be accumulating rapidly.  Hopefully Minnesota fills in this map over the next 24 hours.  

 

[Tom]

Snow has begun up by my friends place just SW of MSP…Real Winter conditions…can’t say I’m not jelly!

 

 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Cleared the deck and steps for the dogs one hour ago. Since then we've received another 2.5 inches. Still coming down heavy but I can see the ending line of precip on the radar getting close.

Did you get any thundersnow? The radar returns over Sioux Falls looked very impressive earlier this morning.