New Year's Day Colorado Low

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS an improvement for Nebraska. Continues to look a bit more Euro like but just doesn't get the extent of heavier snowfall for NE.

It's been playing catch up this whole time. No reason to think it'll stop now.

[james1976]

NWS seems cautious going with 4-8" for MSP. Models are putting out more than that.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Maybe we’ll get some thunder-boomers out of this IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT ON JANUARY 2nd, before we get the backside flurries to finish on Tuesday morning.

[jcwxguy]

yuck 

 

 

[james1976]

Moisture is off the charts with this system according to MPX. This system alone could bring the January monthly avg.

First the moisture, as mentioned in previous discussions, is off the charts for this time of year. Precipitable water values in the NAEFS are in the 90th to 99th percentile and liquid QPF values in excess of what we get in a normal January let along one storm. We could see over an inch of liquid QPF from this, which is well past MSP`s January normal of 0.89 inches. This isn`t driven by outliers either as for the Twin Cities, the mode of the LREF made of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles is over an inch. Now this isn`t a nice binomial distribution as the members with less than this mode outweigh those with more. It is a little hard to buy to much into these values that are so out of climatology, so until we get closer and have some higher resolution guidance to add in it will be hard to have much more confidence. Where there is increased confidence however is where the highest QPF will occur. All the main deterministic models now put this across southern Minnesota. So we are looking at a lot of QPF, but what will it fall as?

[Hawkeye]

The UK jumped southeast quite a bit this morning.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just got home from church. Haven’t had time to look at the 12z models yet. It seems like there must be some movement South/Southeast as I read your comments. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like me might have some bands again that will really effect accumulations over fairly small areas. The 12z RGEM, for example, hits my area hard. Other models have this band further west or north, or not at all. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro. That is what NWS  Hastings will be going with, in my opinion, as they’ve talked about it for days. 

[CentralNebWeather]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK jumped southeast quite a bit this morning.

That is a pretty big jump south. Also NWS Hastings says the system has really slowed down. 

[hawkstwelve]

15z RAP looks pretty nice through Noon Tuesday.

[sholomar]

If Brookings gets taken out of the picture I'm done following storms way ahead of time.  KELO now has it all going south.

 

https://www.keloland.com/weather/forecast/new-years-day-is-quiet-winter-storm-headlines-for-mon-tue-storm-center-am-update-sunday-january-1/

[gosaints]

Getting close enough for a chase at least.  

[gosaints]

Looks like the euro has the low in south central Iowa at hour 48

[gosaints]

And then travels about due north from there.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

A few days ago the Euro was consistently showing 1-1.5" of rain across Iowa.  Now it has Cedar Rapids down to 0.40".  In other words, just another run-of-the-mill winter storm that dumps 12+" of snow to the nw and a modest soak here.

[gosaints]

Sioux falls seems locked in.....

I wish the la crosse and msp forecast offices the best of luck.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh…

[Madtown]

This thing pops the bed as it gets over this way

 

 

[gosaints]

12 minutes ago, Madtown said:

This thing pops the bed as it gets over this way

 

 

Occluding storms are very unpredictable 

[WinterSquall23]

25 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Occluding storms are very unpredictable 

Yeah we learned that in SE MI with the storm occlusion at the pre Christmas storm.  It shifted east of us. 

[sholomar]

NWS is not backing down... Aberdeen office just issued winter storm warnings. They seem to think Watertown is getting more snow than the latest models suggest.

Local point forecast says we are getting a foot now which is up 4 inches from this morning. Still looking good.

Ice storm warning just issued for Sioux City a minute ago.

Looking good for both Sioux Falls and Brookings. I will stay optimistic. The "bullseye" area hopefully hits between these two towns to share the fun. My mother is located on an acreage east of Madison in Lake County SD ... if they end up getting a foot or more she'll be stuck at home a couple of days.

Her forecast...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=195&y=75&site=fsd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=195&map_y=75

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Storm Warning here. More details coming 

[gabel23]

16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Winter Storm Warning here. More details coming 

Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out.

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Storm Warning here. Calling for 5-14 inches, kind of a big spread. Probabilistic page is showing an expected 10 inches for Sioux Falls.

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out.

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS mean is now up to 13 inches for Sioux Falls. Shows a 60-70% chance of a 12+ inch snowfall. I'll take those odds.

I wonder what it will take for NWS FSD to be a little more bullish on the higher end snow totals. It seems like most 12z guidance came in somewhere around 12-15 inches for FSD but they're still calling for 6-11.

[james1976]

Upgraded to a warning now for 5-8"

[gosaints]

Lol. The GFS is very confused model

[gabel23]

53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. 

Ugg remember that real well. I was going to college in Lincoln and we got mostly rain from that storm. That ice out west that year was an 1”+ thick. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS continues to improve for N/Central Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

This would be horrendous. 

[hawkstwelve]

FSD discussion mentions possibility of thundersnow!! And a potential Blizzard Warning looming on the horizon.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: This will be the period of greatest impacts
from this significant winter storm. Models have come into better
agreement on the track of the system, though still some slight
differences that could ultimately have a large impact on precip
types and amounts. Broad lift from the warm advection and advancing
upper level low Monday evening, is expected to become more focused
into an intense snowfall band by late evening into Tuesday morning.
This all in response to a TroWAL developing into the Tri-State area,
with coincident mid-level frontogenesis which is topped at times by
weak instability/negative EPV*. This should not only support a
narrowing snow band, but also snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour,
as indicated by HREF probabilities. On top of that, some solutions
show upright instability with low probabilities of greater than
100J/kg CAPE as far north as I-90 Monday night. All that to say we
could see another period of thundersnow with this storm, which would
ramp snowfall rates even higher. This most likely would occur in the
midnight to noon time frame on Tuesday, with the large majority of
the snow expected to fall within this window.

In addition to the snow, we continue to see the potential for at
least a period of stronger northerly winds, also during the Monday
night-Tuesday time frame, though confidence on speeds is still on
lower than confidence in the very heavy snowfall. In either case,
blowing snow looks to be a significant concern, but confidence is
not quite high enough to push out a Blizzard Warning just yet.

Unfortunately, those that do not see significant snowfall amounts
will likely see significant icing due to freezing rain. Portions of
eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and far southern Minnesota look
to be on track for this to occur, as the warm nose aloft lifts as
far north as I-90 Monday night before colder air pushes eastward
Tuesday morning. Given the amount of moisture with this system is
near the peak of climatology for early January, this could lead to a
major ice storm for parts of the region.

[gabel23]

Uggg I hate ice. 

[WinterSquall23]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD discussion mentions possibility of thundersnow!! And a potential Blizzard Warning looming on the horizon.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: This will be the period of greatest impacts
from this significant winter storm. Models have come into better
agreement on the track of the system, though still some slight
differences that could ultimately have a large impact on precip
types and amounts. Broad lift from the warm advection and advancing
upper level low Monday evening, is expected to become more focused
into an intense snowfall band by late evening into Tuesday morning.
This all in response to a TroWAL developing into the Tri-State area,
with coincident mid-level frontogenesis which is topped at times by
weak instability/negative EPV*. This should not only support a
narrowing snow band, but also snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour,
as indicated by HREF probabilities. On top of that, some solutions
show upright instability with low probabilities of greater than
100J/kg CAPE as far north as I-90 Monday night. All that to say we
could see another period of thundersnow with this storm, which would
ramp snowfall rates even higher. This most likely would occur in the
midnight to noon time frame on Tuesday, with the large majority of
the snow expected to fall within this window.

In addition to the snow, we continue to see the potential for at
least a period of stronger northerly winds, also during the Monday
night-Tuesday time frame, though confidence on speeds is still on
lower than confidence in the very heavy snowfall. In either case,
blowing snow looks to be a significant concern, but confidence is
not quite high enough to push out a Blizzard Warning just yet.

Unfortunately, those that do not see significant snowfall amounts
will likely see significant icing due to freezing rain. Portions of
eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and far southern Minnesota look
to be on track for this to occur, as the warm nose aloft lifts as
far north as I-90 Monday night before colder air pushes eastward
Tuesday morning. Given the amount of moisture with this system is
near the peak of climatology for early January, this could lead to a
major ice storm for parts of the region.

Congrats, that would be cool to see thunder snow! 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro. Much will depend on amount of ice and changeover  

[Andie]

78* tomorrow and 75% chance of rain.  
Heck of a January!

[gosaints]

Nam warmer in these parts should help with zr

[jcwxguy]

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

 

 

Whoa. That would be devastating for power lines and trees. 

[gosaints]

That ice in NE looks real.  Outside of the western flank of the storm the 0z meso models looking less impressive as far as snow goes 

[gosaints]

Now the RGEM comes in the slightly cooler tomorrow night

[hawkstwelve]

00z RGEM looking better on snow totals and even more importantly, lessens ice amounts overall.

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z RGEM looking better on snow totals and even more importantly, lessens ice amounts overall.

Compare the to what the NAM shows and we realize real quick how difficult it is to work at the NWS.   

[Iceresistance]

Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 

[Hawkeye]

Rain-wise, this thing continues to dry up for my area.  A few of the short-term models this evening have me down to only about 0.25".    The Euro had 1.5" a few days ago.

[gosaints]

Whoa the GFS has some of those warnings looking very nervous

[hawkstwelve]

Look at the difference for Central Nebraska between tonight's 00z and last night's 00z run.

[gosaints]

Model mayhem

[hawkstwelve]

Overall the system moves through further NW and quicker than what the Euro is showing. Euro hangs it up around the NE/IA border while the GFS scoots it along to N IA fairly quickly.

[gosaints]

Lol GFS 2 inches in Mankato and the GGEM with 18 inches