PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Details should be nailed down for this period by now.

As Michael Snyder is fond of saying: “for amusement purposes only.”

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS at 300 hours... comparing to previous runs the GOA ridge signal has been trending weaker and the flow is more zonal as a result.  

[Tyler Mode]

Marshmallow goodness from Crater Lake this morning!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Marshmallow goodness from Crater Lake this morning!

Pity the Lodge does not rent rooms in the winter.

[NWbyNW]

A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

 

Corvallis, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Drizzly and 42 here this morning.

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

 

Eugene, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

Mmmmm… Jersey Mike’s. I think that’s Corvallis though. 

[MossMan]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS at 300 hours... comparing to previous runs the GOA ridge signal has been trending weaker and the flow is more zonal as a result.  

It’s over. 

[Eujunga]

31 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Eugene, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

 

Corvallis; Eugene. Oregon State; University of Oregon. Whatevs. It's all the same down there in Baja.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The models are all quite dry for CA now going forward... the faucet has been abruptly turned off again.

 

Yep that's out mid winter dry spell which is unusually late this year. The shortest ever was 8 days and the longest was 57 days. 2-3 weeks is pretty normal and much needed now. 

https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep that's out mid winter dry spell which is unusually late this year. The shortest ever was 8 days and the longest was 57 days. 2-3 weeks is pretty normal and much needed now. 

https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm

Praying for no rain  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is far from inspiring at 240 hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, we’ve completely lost the end of the month now. I do think first week of February gets chilly though we are trending towards a low amplitude ridge and deep west coast troughing with is interesting but not super cold. Seeing some support in extended runs for what the CFS is showing for February. Kind of an odd dynamic. 

[Deweydog]

For perspective, 2006 was a BLAST FURNACE until Valentine’s Day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we’ve completely lost the end of the month now. I do think first week of February gets chilly though we are trending towards a low amplitude ridge and deep west coast troughing with is interesting but not super cold. Seeing some support in extended runs for what the CFS is showing for February. Kind of an odd dynamic. 

Clown range doing clown range things. It may well come back.

[ShawniganLake]

GEPS improved. It’s gonna get cold in early February. January was most likely DOA but we basically knew that as early as mid December. 

[TT-SEA]

Get some sun breaks now... drizzle ended a couple hours ago.

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

GEPS improved. It’s gonna get cold in early February. January was basically DOA but we basically knew that as early as mid December. 

We basically knew that as early as mid-December 2017.

[Cold Snap]

12z EPS not bad at all.

[Cascadia_Wx]

I loves me some amorphous blue shapes over us.

[Deweydog]

SSW education!

 

[Cold Snap]

Here are the 850s.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is far from inspiring at 240 hours.

It’s double over. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Corvallis; Eugene. Oregon State; University of Oregon. Whatevs. It's all the same down there in Baja.

Calling your region Baja is a bit much. Bakersfield is not even within 200 miles of Baja California Norte.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

SSW education!

 

Cool video thanks matt I learned some stuff even though it had an unsettling lack of sarcasm 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

12z EPS not bad at all.

Step back though... trough is farther east than 00Z run at that time.   

I am sure something is coming in February but not sure how fast it will come.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Slight step back on the ensembles 

[MossMan]

It’s becoming a tradition! 
 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm....

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

 

Eugene, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

The sun has shined through a bit periodically this morning. Overcast now though.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s becoming a tradition! 
 

Looks about right!  

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Hmmm....

Neutral would be awesome!! 

[Phishy Wx]

Our annual sales conference is in FL 2/13 - 2/17.  I couldn't get out of going lol.  Half a** tried, but used up my travel mulligans to stay home from biz travel for the main cold event in December.

 

so if you want to know when it's coming, bet the house on that week

[NWbyNW]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Mmmmm… Jersey Mike’s. I think that’s Corvallis though. 

Oh my gosh.  I messed up.  I was thinking Corvallis and typed Eugene.  UGH.  Sorry.  I do that sometimes.   I guess I was just thinking of all the great people from Eugene here on the forums.  

I fixed the original post.

 

Mmmmm.... Sub sandwiches.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Oh my gosh.  I messed up.  I was thinking Corvallis and typed Eugene.  UGH.  Sorry.  I do that sometimes.   I guess I was just thinking of all the great people from Eugene here on the forums.  

I fixed the original post.

 

Mmmmm.... Sub sandwiches.

I grew up eating those on the east coast.  When I got to CA 12 years ago they were rare there and there is to this day only 2 or 3 in the Spokane area.  good stuff

[High Desert Mat?]

Has there been a quadruple dip La Niña in recorded history? 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Has there been a quadruple dip La Niña in recorded history? 

I do not think so

[NWbyNW]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I grew up eating those on the east coast.  When I got to CA 12 years ago they were rare there and there is to this day only 2 or 3 in the Spokane area.  good stuff

I've always wondered what the best 'chain' sub sandwich shop is.  I know people who swear by every single one of them.  I have never had Jersey Mike's or Firehouse Subs.  I don't eat out practically ever, but I should give those a try sometime.

When I was on the east coast, I loved the sub shops.  The best one's of course being the Mom n' Pop pop up making classic subs with longtime recipes.  No portioning, they just slapped em on thick.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Jim, can you cancel winter again pls? That always seems to help. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the end of the 12z GFS, the progression looked pretty reasonable. Not a sexy arctic blast, but a non-negative outcome. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All this talk of 2006, there was a nice cold trough that March. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

40 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Jim, can you cancel winter again pls? That always seems to help. 

The models need to get significantly torchier for late Jan / early Feb in order for that to happen.

BRING ON THE 60-BURGERS!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is pretty cringe so far. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Oh my gosh.  I messed up.  I was thinking Corvallis and typed Eugene.  UGH.  Sorry.  I do that sometimes.   I guess I was just thinking of all the great people from Eugene here on the forums.  

I fixed the original post.

 

Mmmmm.... Sub sandwiches.

That Jersey Mike's is my go-to for outdoor trips. Ate one of their sandwiches on top of Lava Butte last spring.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run is pretty cringe so far. 

like Tim said, its unsettling how much the GFS operational wants nothing to do with showing the goods in fantasy land

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All this talk of 2006, there was a nice cold trough that March. 

The thing was a BEAST.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

like Tim said, its unsettling how much the GFS operational wants nothing to do with showing the goods in fantasy land

My concern is we are trending towards a coolish boring pattern. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

The thing was a BEAST.

In Silverton/Mt. Angel that was our only sticking snow of the winter after missing out on the little December event. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The thing was a BEAST.

I think it got a bit chilly up here? I don’t remember any snow. I could be wrong. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually almost got stuck up on Bald Peak in my old truck during that March event, easily 6-8" up there, not quite to the top.