December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I could I would quit looking at the models for a week or so...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wrong Timmy, how’s your drought?

 

Sorry, you Tims are all pretty similar. The upcoming death ridge is concerning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

Toss this Euro run. Waaay too much SW dig in the rear quadrant there.

 

 

It looks basically the same as the GFS at day 6.

[Gradient Keeper]

Kamchatka Bomb? or does it track into the Aleutians...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/168/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DJ frantically trying to create suspense...But there is none...

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ frantically trying to create suspense...But there is none...

Doing the absolute best I can without resorting to silly wishcasting.

[stuffradio]

If I could I would quit looking at the models for a week or so...

You don't quit the models, the models quit you.

[Eastvanisle]

Ok, ok...very funny. Now, where are the REAL models indicating that winter is upon us?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doing the absolute best I can without resorting to silly wishcasting.

We appreciate the effort.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 NOPE

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

We appreciate the effort.

There's a chance my nightly play-by-play is jinxing things. I won't be here or awake for 6z, so maybe things take a sudden turn for the better by 2:30 AM.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 and very surprised to see this run is mirroring the GFS Op tonight. Only the CMC doesn't show this system moving in from the southwest cutting into the block.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/216/500h_anom.na.png

[stuffradio]

What are the “control” models.

I believe Control = operational. Is that what you're asking?

 

Edit: Actually I believe I'm wrong. If you look at the ensemble chart we always post, there is a separate entry for control members.

[Phil]

It looks basically the same as the GFS at day 6.

Except it really doesn't. Small errors in the handling of shortwaves can make a huge difference down the road.

 

This is erroneous:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air moving southwest towards Montana southeast BC, southern AB.

[ShawniganLake]

I believe Control = operational. Is that what you're asking?

 

Edit: Actually I believe I'm wrong. If you look at the ensemble chart we always post, there is a separate entry for control members.

Yea. They are different. I am assuming the operational is generally the most accurate though

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm out. Good night all

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes

[Front Ranger]

Except it really doesn't. Small errors in the handling of shortwaves can make a huge difference down the road.

 

 

That was my point. It really didn't lead to much of a difference down the road. Very similar evolution to the GFS overall.

 

Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. One possible error in the handling of a shortwave doesn't mean you have to throw out the entire run.

[snow_wizard]

I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us.

[liquidsnow]

I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us.

The ridge will likely take the first half but I believe the trough can take the 2nd half. Just need a few touchdowns. Onside kick to start the 3rd Q?

[ShawniganLake]

Some signs of retrogression at the end of the GEPS.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the solar is really tanking now.  The November sunspot number was only 5.9 and the AP index is currently below 5.  Another reason this winter should be great.  Blocky La Nina winter at the bottom of the solar cycle are usually quite good.  Out of the last 3 cycles 1984-85, 1995-96, and 2008-09 all fill that criteria.

[ShawniganLake]

Meanwhile the solar is really tanking now. The November sunspot number was only 5.9 and the AP index is currently below 5. Another reason this winter should be great. Blocky La Nina winter at the bottom of the solar cycle are usually quite good. Out of the last 3 cycles 1984-85, 1995-96, and 2008-09 all fill that criteria.

I agree with this. I have run the numbers for low solar La Niña winters in southern BC. Looking only at snowfall for YVR, YXX and Shawnigan Lake. 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 84, 95, 07, 08. Average snowfall for those winters was 213%, 214%, and 177%, respectively.

[snow_wizard]

I agree with this. I have run the numbers for low solar La Niña winters in southern BC. Looking only at snowfall for YVR, YXX and Shawnigan Lake. 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 84, 95, 07, 08. Average snowfall for those winters was 213%, 214%, and 177%, respectively.

 

Yes indeed.  I am seriously thinking this death ridge is a good sign for later.  It has to be made up for.

[snow_wizard]

People might want to check out my post about the Dec 1956 cold wave in the This Day in History thread.  It's pretty relevant to our current situation.

[FroYoBro]

PDX is all the way down to 39! 

[TT-SEA]

31 and clear here!   It has happened.    

[Geos]

Another freeze here. At 30 currently. No fog like the rest of the area.

 

Congrats Tim, you finally made it!

[Deweydog]

37 degree rain!

[Geos]

Just went down to 29.8. Can see just some hints of the fog in the distance.

 

Edit: Actually fog is thickening up as it gets lighter.

[TT-SEA]

Actually there are some high clouds out there making for a nice a sunrise... there is lots of ice because it was wet last night.

 

[MossMan]

30 frosty degrees here!

[Gradient Keeper]

Tim, congratulations on your first freeze.

 

Christmas Countdown: 21 Days
12/4/17  Teleconnection Indices Forecast

 

The massive +PNA is forecast to steadily weaken through the 18th. Compared to previous runs this is a bit promising. Hopefully in the coming days that trend both continues and drops off a bit more quickly. We need the EPO also to turn negative in-step with a -PNA. Keep in mind, this forecast often changes from run-to-run.

 

[TT-SEA]

 

Tim, congratulations on your first freeze.

 

 

 

 

Thanks... it was a team effort.   I could not have done it without all of your support!  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS

 

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120412/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm betting by the end of the week the models will be latching onto something good for us.

I think this is very possible.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120412/144/500h_anom.na.png