December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Model Comparison

00z GFS / 00z CMC

 

Day 1-2 ridge on GEM bit more 'upright, tilted', Kamchatka low a bit further west of GFS. Day 2. 00z CMC better tilt of ridge. Both GFS/CMC feature same 998mb cut-off same exact placement. CMC 2mb stronger ridge. Due to better tilt cold trough digs bit more efficiently. HR 60 CMC block a notch or two further west. HR 60 500mb height anomalies shows both the block and Aleutian ridge stronger with CMC Just a few notches, not by a large margin. Day 3 CMC ridge merger touch stronger and the now merged block strengthens sooner. Also, energy with trough in Bering Sea held further west on CMC. HR 72-84 cut-off low doesn't intensify and lifts north. HR 84 big difference with energy dumping into trough west of Block. Far less with CMC. Hudson's Bay vortex exact same placement. HR 96 - 120 energy dumping into trough cut off with CMC. GFS continuous energy dumping into trough. SO basically the GFS ridge merger was a bit weaker, GFS few notches weaker with block, energy in Bering Sea not held back all that well and fed into trough west of Block energizing cut-off low.

 

00z ECMWF in 57 minutes

 

 

To your credit. You knew the GFS was going to suck by day 2-3. 

[Parksvillewx]

WRF keeping the same trend.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least my kids get a white Christmas with the 00z GFS...

[Deweydog]

In the case my vasectomy magically reverses itself, I'm naming my next child Kamchatka.

[Deweydog]

Torchy start to 2018...

[Front Ranger]

February 1989 had a ridiculous amount of anticyclonic return flow.

 

December 1983 too.

 

 

February 5, 1982.

 

I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows.

 

Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west.

[snow_wizard]

I thought I saw a question that disappeared.  I think the GFS is a mess during week 2 because it's poorly teleconnected and I think the surface high complex over the US is overdone by a ton.  Sometimes a run is gibberish and this is one of those.

[Front Ranger]

In the case my vasectomy magically reverses itself, I'm naming my next child Kamchatka.

 

'Tis the season of miracles!

[snow_wizard]

I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows.

 

Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find.

 

Little doubt there are going to be surprises in the coming days.  Pretty exciting potential though.

[Deweydog]

I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows.

 

Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west.

Of course. Hence the fact we became extremely cold.

[snow_wizard]

Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up.  Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck?  This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

'Tis the season of miracles!

 

I should probably consider one of those...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Prediction: GFS ensembles...A step back...

[BLI snowman]

I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows.

 

Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west.

January 12, 1997 might be a good match also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up.  Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck?  This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch.  

 

It is a major outlier compared to its ensmbles...They are a definite step back... Event cancel pending...

[MossMan]

I should probably consider one of those...

How many are you up to now?

 

Well hopefully the Euro will be inline or even better than the GEM tonight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up. Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck? This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch.

It's the upgrades. It has been so consistent in bringing in cold air and hasn't wavered. We can't ignore what it's showing right in front of our faces.

[Perturbed Member]

Should be a pretty interesting 00z Euro tonight. Will hopefully settle the GFS-GEM fued.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How many are you up to now?

 

Well hopefully the Euro will be inline or even better than the GEM tonight.

 

Four. All girls...

 

4 yr 11 mo

3 yr - twins

6 1/2 months...

[Front Ranger]

Of course. Hence the fact we became extremely cold.

 

Looking a little closer at it, Dec 1983 did have a fairly similar block configuration, with high heights extending all the way across the NW Territories. More similar than Feb 1989. But yeah, all huge, top heavy blocks that basically covered all of Alaska/Yukon and extended into the Arctic.

 

In 1989, the blocking persisted for awhile after the main blast, but in 1983 it dissolved pretty rapidly shortly after Christmas.

[MossMan]

That’s it...I’m putting the old bald tires back on my wife’s car. Event cancelled.

Wet Christmas.

Phil was wrong.

Seahawks suck.

[Perturbed Member]

It's the upgrades. It has been so consistent in bringing in cold air and hasn't wavered. We can't ignore what it's showing right in front of our faces.

When was the GEM upgraded?

[Deweydog]

When was the GEM upgraded?

When it turned cold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

When was the GEM upgraded?

I forgot who but someone said it had an upgrade recently. I think this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS too much energy dumping into trough. A step backwards, but massive spread showing up among members. 00z CMCE 850s for Troutdale mean temp with first blast same as 12z -8c and a nice cluster of members -10c to -14. It does however seem like there might be an unfavorable trend emerging. Not sure yet. I can't tell you how many times we've seen last minute flip/flops with something falling apart, or then it flips back in our favor the next set of runs. With the ridge right now currently at 170 W progressing to 160 W by morning I can't see why the models are having an issue with initializing or handling of the pattern change.

[Front Ranger]

January 12, 1997 might be a good match also.

 

Yeah, that's actually the closest.

 

 

I don't remember anything notable happening in Tacoma that January...looks like a dry, chilly backdoor deal with a brief overrunning event at the end.

[TT-SEA]

That’s it...I’m putting the old bald tires back on my wife’s car. Event cancelled.

Wet Christmas.

Phil was wrong.

Seahawks suck.

 

You are 100% correct on one of these points.

[MossMan]

One year ago today...sadly it might be more than what we get over the next two weeks.

[MossMan]

Very windy all of a sudden. 46 degrees.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well this place got gloomy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS disaster.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well this place got gloomy

Reality sunk in

[Deweydog]

Retrogression seems to have disappeared from everyone's vocabulary. It's like the dial tone and Zima.

[Timmy]

Ok,

Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think everyone has a pretty good idea where the EURO is going. I think the event probably is back on the table in 24 hours before the rug is pulled out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ok,

Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast.

 

GUILTY!

[Front Ranger]

Ok,

Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast.

 

Well, a bunch of people confessed earlier. Jim claimed early victory. Plus, Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile EUG is in their own little world again at 34. 

[Winterdog]

The GEFS has totally given up on anything cold after the 2nd little cooldown.  If the Euro colapses on us like it seems is likely we will then have only the GEM showing anything good.  What a revolting development this is. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, that's actually the closest.

 

compday.2mVk7XNVWK.gif

 

I don't remember anything notable happening in Tacoma that January...looks like a dry, chilly backdoor deal with a brief overrunning event at the end.

Yeah that was a very impressive event for a lot of the Intermountain West but pretty boring in the PNW.