Geos Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 3km NAM actually shows more snowfall across a wider area of Puget Sound than the 18z while maintaining a slight emphasis on King and Snohomish counties... More similar to the 12z run. Looks good to me. Was just noticing this model is running way warm on the temps now. Like 4-5 degrees.Temp is tanked really rapidly tonight. Already approaching the morning low of 24 here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 I have a bad feeling about the Euro. Hope my feeling is wrong.Yeah, me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 -5 at my cabin property. By friend lives close and temps there match mine at cabin. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Totally shooting from the hip here, but I think our next opportunity comes in the January 15-25 range. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 You can see it yourself by going to https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017122400&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0Thanks for the link. Got to start book marking these and learn how to zoom in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 What is interesting in the 00z GFS is how the jet keeps pushing energy into Astoria. May not be too bad in portions of W WA if the systems are stronger and keep pulling cool air down from Canada. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Was just noticing this model is running way warm on the temps now. Like 4-5 degrees.Temp is tanked really rapidly tonight. Already approaching the morning low of 24 here. Unfortunately, the temperatures are near ground. Shallow cold air from nocturnal cooling can be eroded very quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 The extended GFS keeps hinting at some cold troughing... We'll see... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Of course I know that. But I like seeing the wxbell images. They just do a good job with the way their graphics present. It’s pretty like an Apple product Total snow through 4 p.m. Monday. I find the GFS snowfall maps to be fairly inaccurate though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 I have a feeling a lot of meteorologist are going to be writing about how the EURO is the superior model and America needs to figure out how to catch up to it... Again... 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 In one hour... by around 10:05 we will have 00Z ECMWF surface maps through 48 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 I have a feeling a lot of meteorologist are going to be writing about how the EURO is the superior model and America needs to figure out how to catch up to it... Again...No one model is better in every situation. But the ECMWF does do a much more thorough initialization (they spend hours just initializing their model) then run it at higher resolution. US runs faster, more often, and they run many more models. EC has more horsepower as well. I guess the reason we are chasing them are due to the questions: "how good is good enough?" and "how much are you willing to spend?" How much spending do you want on weather forecasting vs other things that the gov needs to pay for? Above my pay grade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 In one hour... by around 10:05 we will have 00Z ECMWF surface maps through 48 hours.Going to be a reality check Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 What is interesting in the 00z GFS is how the jet keeps pushing energy into Astoria. May not be too bad in portions of W WA if the systems are stronger and keep pulling cool air down from Canada.I was looking at that as well. It's not far off from being a fun time with snow chances. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 I have a feeling a lot of meteorologist are going to be writing about how the EURO is the superior model and America needs to figure out how to catch up to it... Again...And they will be right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 The best model will be the GOLU for this, my gut says more snow will fall than what is shown in the real models. But that's just me.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Unfortunately, the temperatures are near ground. Shallow cold air from nocturnal cooling can be eroded very quickly.Buzzkill post of the night... 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 And they will be right.If Bernie was elected we wouldn’t be having this discussion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/This must be the equivalent to the magic 8 ball: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 What is interesting in the 00z GFS is how the jet keeps pushing energy into Astoria. May not be too bad in portions of W WA if the systems are stronger and keep pulling cool air down from Canada.November 1996 was when I learned that Lows coming in around that area is a very good thing for us up here! Nearly 8” snow that day when the forecasts called for a quick slushy inch then a warm up by mid morning, never did change over up here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 November 1996 was when I learned that Lows coming in around that area is a very good thing for us up here! Nearly 8” snow that day when the forecasts called for a quick slushy inch then a warm up by mid morning, never did change over up here.Wow, great memory on that event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Buzzkill post of the night... Jaya is right. I have seen it all my life. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Wow, great memory on that eventFrom that day forward I would watch a lot of satellite loops in hopes that we could get lows to come in around Astoria whenever there was cold air just on the other side of the border! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Jaya is right. I have seen it all my life. Ditto... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Unfortunately for PDX area folks the NWS curse has now been activated. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 When the going gets tough i lean toward the good ol AVN model. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Jaya is right. I have seen it all my life. Yeah, in a way it's better to have someone on this forum be the buzzkill in advance of nature itself being the buzzkill. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Portland issuing winter weather advisory Freezing rain Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/This must be the equivalent to the magic 8 ball: I got a happy snowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Portland issuing winter weather advisory K.O.D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Nws latest forecast discussion doesn't look as bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FXUS66 KSEW 240447 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 845 PM PST Sat Dec 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will pass across Western Washington on Sunday night and Christmas morning bringing a chance of rain and snow to the area. Weak upper ridging around Tuesday should bring a drier period. A warmer and wetter pattern should be in place around next Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM...Clear skies over Western Washington this evening looks to be resulting in no shortage of sub-freezing temperatures across the area. Cold though it may be...at least it is a quiet night. The same cannot be said for the upcoming holiday as the next weather system of interest starts to seep into the area from the SW Sunday morning. Initially there looks to be a bit of warming...but the northward extent of this will be pretty limited...optimistically making it to the Seattle metro area. The incoming cold front is pretty quick to nix this however...with colder conditions kicking in first in the Hood Canal area by mid-afternoon. For most places...precip starting in the morning and early afternoon with generally fall as rain...although as just stated Hood Canal is likely to make the transition to the white stuff first. As the cold front draws nearer mid to late afternoon...will see snow levels north of Seattle fall quickly and a transition to snow during the evening. For Seattle...points south and along the coast...precip still expected to fall as rain...or perhaps a rain/snow mix...into Sunday evening and Sunday night. The Seattle metro will likely see a transition to snow during the overnight into early Christmas morning. The timing of this transition will be key in determining the amount of snowfall expected. Current forecast suggests that for points north of the Seattle metro area...amounts of 1-3 inches are expected when this is all said and done while the metro area itself may see up to 2 inches with the higher end of that spectrum expected in northern portions of the metro area. Given the amounts possible...currently weighing the prospects of putting out a Winter Weather Advisory for snow in a late evening update...though would like to see the 00Z ECMWF first. To avoid tunnel vision here...also worth mentioning that the southern and central Cascades zones look to creep across their Winter Weather Advisory for Snow thresholds as well with this system...so weighing adding that to a potential update as well. Precip will gradually taper off on Christmas Day, with just a few lingering rain/snow showers and little additional accumulation. An upper ridge will stand up near 130W on Monday night, then flatten as the ridge axis moves inside 130W on Tue. This will support a mostly precip-free period for the Tue/Tue night time frame. The 12z ECMWF appears to be an outlier in showing light precip (rain/snow mix) on Tue night. SMR/Haner .LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Models are leaning toward a flat ridgy solution for next Thursday and Friday, though they are different in showing where the ridge axis will be. What the GFS and ECMWF agree on is depicting this as a flat, dirty ridge, with rain spreading into Western Washington next Thu night and/or Friday. Have increased PoP for this period. The New Years weekend forecast for now features near normal temperatures and chance PoPs. Should be mild enough on New Years weekend to avoid lowland snow being part of the conversation. Haner && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft over Western Washington this evening will back to west on Sunday as a frontal system moves into the offshore waters. Northerly offshore flow will continue at low levels. The air mass will remain dry tonight, with moisture increasing Sunday -- first aloft and then at the lower levels. There will be no significant cloud cover below 12,000 feet tonight, but patchy FG/FZFG is likely in the most fog-prone spots. Ceilings will gradually lower on Sunday, with widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions likely late Sunday afternoon due to reduced visibility, low ceilings, and rain/snow. KSEA...Northeast wind 6-10 kt. Cloud cover will gradually lower Sunday, with conditions probably deteriorating to MVFR late Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation will probably begin during the afternoon, with up to 2 inches of snow possible at KSEA by early Monday morning. McDonnal && .MARINE...High pressure over southern British Columbia will maintain moderately strong northerly offshore flow and Fraser outflow winds through tonight; small craft advisory winds will continue over the northern inland waters, central and western Strait of Juan de Fuca, and the coastal waters. Another frontal system will move through the area Sunday and Sunday night, and the resulting will be continuing small craft advisory winds especially for the coastal waters. Northwest flow will follow the front for a brief period late Sunday night and Monday, then weak offshore flow will prevail Monday night through Wednesday. McDonnal && .HYDROLOGY...River flooding is unlikely for the next 7 days. A period of heavier rain is possible around next Thursday night or Friday. This will bear watching for the flood-prone Skokomish River. Other rivers may experience rises but are not expected to flood. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && www.weather.gov/seattle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 And that map is really stupid. Have we ever seen precip coverage that looks like that? I will say it again, FUKK the models! Actually... the 00Z ECMWF is just as phallic as the MM5 NAM at 10 a.m. tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Come on Euro show us the goods! Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 Think Euro is going north. Astoria landfall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 00Z ECMWF shifted back north again... this is snow total through 4 a.m. Christmas morning. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2017122400/washington/ecmwf_tsnow_washington_7.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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