bud2380 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks like quite a few of the GEFS members must be showing the system the following weekend like Tom has been mentioning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 This is supposed to be the year when we're no longer the zone of dearth across this sub. I will be surprised if this has finished trending this far out. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Funny how most of the GEFS members get rid of this storm but put on a good show for Christmas Eve/Christmas. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Hopefully the trend stops but the NW trend seems to be continue through HR 84 GFS with warmer air even further N compared to previous runs. I hope I'am wrong but I call a SD- Central MN to N WI jack pot. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gfs is gonna be way north this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 0z GFS seems to be slowing things down a bit, and heading north through hour 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gem coming in way north also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 This isn’t good for anyone here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121700&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=118 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121700&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=143 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gfs is gonna be way north this runDoesn't seem any more north than it was at 18z. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Doesn't seem any more north than it was at 18z. It dug far enough south but it didn’t look good at the start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Well crap, that run wasn't what I wanted to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 What do ya know, nebraska missing out again lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 1-3” for most of Iowa. 1” to the south, 3” to the north. Wisconsin with 3-5” for a good chunk of the state but 6”+ for the eastern most counties along the lake. For MBY looks I’ll be lucky to get anything over an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 If there's any positives, the southern wave is stronger and it dug more into OK. For some reason, precip did not follow suit and never really got anywhere. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The nice, sharp upper trough digs into the central Rockies, but as it ejects eastward the northern stream comes in and stretches it apart, so it's just rather feeble overall. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sad to say- I'd sign up in a heartbeat (and I think many on here would) for the 2" the GFS shows for mby. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 None of which adds up for a pattern with such potential. Something will happen, but it will be when the cold is on the move, similar to the 4-5th system. First system may end-up being just the warm-up act.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sad to say- I'd sign up in a heartbeat (and I think many on here would) for the 2" the GFS shows for mby.Absolutely, 2" snow would be great at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 So the ukie digs it into Texas And next frame http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 So the ukie digs it into Texas And next frame http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144Wow what the hell, that actually looks good. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think that’s the first model I’ve seen in awhile dig it that far south which would be pretty big No blocking showing up tho which is why it went so far north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think that’s the first model I’ve seen in awhile dig it that far south which would be pretty big No blocking showing up tho which is why it went so far northWish i could see precipitation maps. Tomorrow should be the day the pattern in the Pacific gets past an area the models have a hard time with, so maybe we should start to see some better turn outs. Not giving up until the fat lady sings. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Come on EURO...throw us a bone!!!! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 144 hr UK precip map http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121700/conus/ukmet_6hr_precip_conus_144.png 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Thats interesting. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 144 hr UK precip map How much of that is snow exactly? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 How much of that is snow exactly? Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west.It's probably better then you think. But I actually love the placement of what the uk is showing Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west.Not a whole lot going on up there then. NW side of the surface low looks deprived. But that hard cutter evolution is unique among the models. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Well euro is way warmer through 96 compared to 0z yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Here's the wx.graphics UK page. You can see the storm is beginning to blow up at 144 hrs as it crosses central Iowa. The low is 989 mb and it's just beginning to make the connection to a deep moisture feed. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks further south at hour 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks further south at hour 120Looks farther north tbh http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017121700&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Crap. Yes you are right. I was looking at the secondary LP down in texas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The splitting of the energy into 2 lows seems like a new evolution this run. Northerly component tracks right thru Iowa and ends up being a Minneapolis special. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The splitting of the energy into 2 lows seems like a new evolution this run. Northerly component tracks right thru Iowa and ends up being a Minneapolis special.Yup it actually digs it way south and then a piece breaks off and heads right through ia and WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yup it actually digs it way south and then a piece breaks off and heads right through ia and WIBut why though. You'd think it it was gonna dig like that it would stay in one piece instead of a piece breaking off and heading straight into the feature that was making it dig in the first place. There's a lot of high pressure to the N/NW of the system while it digs. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Dang, that jumped way north. No bueno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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