The Winter Solstice Storm

[St Paul Storm]

A phased monster on the GFS...Tis the season

The GEM was sniffing this out yesterday.

[snowman1]

All the way down into Mexico at 78?

 

 

[bud2380]

[Tom]

Wow, this is what I’m talking about...I know a lot of you gave up, but this year is one where you can’t give up till Mother Nature says it’s over.

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

CMC is holding the energy further south for longer.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Milwaukee to GB smasher.

[WBadgersW]

That's one nice looking storm. Hopefully we can get some consistency going.

[bud2380]

Canadian has this going through the OHV

 

 

[Madtown]

[Tom]

Canadian also trending back towards a phased system tracking along the LRC’s highway...

[snowman1]

Canadian has this going through the OHV

 

 

 

 

Doesn't get as wound up. Only down to 1005 on CMC whereas GFS gets it down to sub-1000 when it reaches Ohio Valley.

 

If trends hold with any sort of cutter - how about a Canadian coup? Had this cutter look back on Sunday 12z.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

You mentioned changing thd title, so gonna post this here vs Dec daily stuff. Can move if you like.

 

GEM, then follows up with an even more ominous SLP coming almost due north from GA a couple days later that looks more wrapped-up. What will this be, one eventual system, or a dbl whammy? 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Wow, this is what I’m talking about...I know a lot of you gave up, but this year is one where you can’t give up till Mother Nature says it’s over.

With that being said.....the towel is thrown, officially. Good luck to all those still in play!

[Niko]

@ Tom

 

You mentioned changing thd title, so gonna post this here vs Dec daily stuff. Can move if you like.

 

GEM, then follows up with an even more ominous SLP coming almost due north from GA a couple days later that looks more wrapped-up. What will this be, one eventual system, or a dbl whammy? 

 

gem_mslpa_us_fh132-162.gif

Could be back to back monsters.

[SE Wisconsin]

Models all over the place, no consistency, every run seems to offer a different solution - I think the best solution is to just wait until this energy comes on shore later today or tonight and we can finally get some decent sampling.  Otherwise, it just seems to be guesswork - at best! 

[gosaints]

Nope, GFS trending towards a large second wave...

Without a doubt post deleted.  If that first wave continues the weakening trend.....  Madtown watch out..

 

And if the lead wave is being under modeled it would be dull

[Snowshoe]

Without a doubt post deleted.  If that first wave continues the weakening trend.....  Madtown watch out

 

Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying?

[james1976]

Hard cutter if GFS keeps strengthening southern piece and weakening northern piece

[Tom]

Good call Tom. You've been saying it for days.  DVN aslo mentioned it in their AFD on Sunday I believe.  The GEM showed a brief flash of this for a couple runs a couple days ago, but went away yesterday.  Now the GFS is jumping on board.  Definitely interested to see what the other global models do today.  Last nights Euro was a mess, so maybe it was just starting to latch on to the idea and we'll see a better run from it today.  

Appreciate it Bud!  Now, let's hope this thing can give us both some snow for the holiday.  I'm interested to see what happens with the GEFS ensembles and the Ukie/Euro today.  I still expect some shifts/changes going forward, I've learned from the past, that models still struggle how to handle the southern energy, esp if it digs so far south as they are showing.  I bet we won't get any clear indication till Thu pm.

[St Paul Storm]

Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying?

.

 

Quite possible. If the lead waves turns into nothing this thing could cut very hard.

[gosaints]

Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying?

Yes it would, but I wouldnt by any single solution currently.  Especially until the 500 vorticity get on shore..  Tons of moving parts.

[Madtown]

This is more Fri now right? Got travel plans!

[gosaints]

Looks like something about to really pop after hour 78. Tom’s reeling one in.

Absolutely.  Lots of moving parts turning into a thread the needle event.  

[hlcater]

Holy wtf is that GFS? Massive run changes. Looking through, I thought for sure that the wave was gonna get suppressed, but instead, the southern energy takes control and we get a GLs cutter. Maybe the CMC had the right idea. Also the storms that benefit Madison from the SW usually give us something too. However, one run is not a trend.

[Snowshoe]

This is more Fri now right? Got travel plans!

 

Driving I39/94 to Milwaukee. If the 1st wave wimps out i may have to leave early.

[Tony]

The GEM was sniffing this out yesterday.

How often do you see the GEM win out....well at least for today. Who knows what tomorrow will show but the way the models have been waffling you know things will change. I for one gave up on anything happening for the lower lakes and I am still not convinced.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yep thats seems more plausible then neb being hit. The one that hits us dies and the monster one misses to the east. Do you guys still wonder why we hate this place? Lol

[james1976]

[hlcater]

Yep thats seems more plausible then neb being hit. The one that hits us dies and the monster one misses to the east. Do you guys still wonder why we hate this place? Lol

But you've got the finest brown grass in the whole of the country! Can't you at least take some pride in that?

[Clinton]

It's going to be an inside slider.

[St Paul Storm]

Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS.

[gosaints]

Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS.

Dont stop the trend.....

[Tony]

0Z EPS matches up nicely with todays 12z runs.

[Snowshoe]

Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS.

 

Looks drunk but i like it

[St Paul Storm]

Dont stop the trend.....

I agree, but I’ve already conceded.

[gosaints]

I agree, but I’ve already conceded.

I bit of a pipe dream but if the northern stream continues to weaken not out of the realm of possibilities.

[Snowshoe]

GFS throws out another GLC for NYE. 

[Tom]

12z Ukie digs it down to N MX...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

 

Then ends up near Toronto...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[St Paul Storm]

I bit of a pipe dream but if the northern stream continues to weaken not out of the realm of possibilities.

I’ll be model watching the rest of the day. If anything this is quite entertaining to watch unfold.