bud2380 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well you know what they say. Always best to be in the bullseye 168 hours out.... wait... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Canadian jogged 200 miles NW with the Friday - Saturday system from 0z to 12z GFS went the exact opposite way. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Canadian jogged 200 miles NW with the Friday - Saturday system from 0z to 12z GFS went the exact opposite way. Lol. Just the fact that the GFS can shift 500 miles within 12 hours should tell everyone how ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE that model is. It is not called the Good for Sh*t model for nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just the fact that the GFS can shift 500 miles within 12 hours should tell everyone how ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE that model is. It is not called the Good for Sh*t model for nothing. Thus my advice is to use the ECMWF in the mid-range and the HRDPS / RGEM-LAM in the short range...and maybe the NAM as a second choice; but only inside 36 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thus my advice is to use the ECMWF in the mid-range and the HRDPS / RGEM-LAM in the short range...and maybe the NAM as a second choice; but only inside 36 hours.With that being said, seeing both GFS/EURO agreeing on a lower Lakes cutter this far out is intriguing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nice gfs run but 7 days out is too bad. Its gonna bounce around all week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 With that being said, seeing both GFS/EURO agreeing on a lower Lakes cutter this far out is intriguing. Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess. As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour. Expecting my best snow event of the month! Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow... Hoping to double my money... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess. As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour. Expecting my best snow event of the month! Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow... Hoping to double my money...True, there will be many solutions at this range but this is the first time this season I've seen the Euro at this range "see" a potential system in back to back runs. It brings me back to a comment that Bud posted last week I believe it was where he mentioned the lack of any model consistency in the medium range among the models. Maybe the blocking is helping the models "see" the energy better? Who knows but its something that has my attention going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'm happy we're not in the bullseye for either wave so far lol. 7 days out and being out of the storm track(s) doesn't hurt. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 True, there will be many solutions at this range but this is the first time this season I've seen the Euro at this range "see" a potential system in back to back runs. It brings me back to a comment that Bud posted last week I believe it was where he mentioned the lack of any model consistency in the medium range among the models. Maybe the blocking is helping the models "see" the energy better? Who knows but its something that has my attention going forward. I hope you get your snow today. Illinois & Wisconsin have been experiencing a similar snow deficiency as areas around here. Wisconsin especially; with Milwaukee & Madison still 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I hope you get your snow today. Illinois & Wisconsin have been experiencing a similar snow deficiency as areas around here. Wisconsin especially; with Milwaukee & Madison still Thanks...believe me, I'm going to soak it all in...Meantime, shifts in the 12z GEFS with the southern piece...this will take a few days to try and figure out... After that, the model gets confused... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=240&r=us_mw&dpdt= K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess. As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour. Expecting my best snow event of the month! Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow... Hoping to double my money... I just looked at the 925 mb map and it showed temperatures above 0 C here until after 3 PM; causing concern.. Then, my sanity returned (albeit briefly) and recalled that 925 mb temps are irrelevant here; since 925 mb level is about 2500' up. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro completely different than gfs through 120 No sign of any HP in Canada on the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 There are reports that over 4” of snow fell at the lake about 15 miles to the west of me. Here at my house just a trace fell. As for tonight and tomorrow GRR is not all that hyped up with maybe a 2 or 3” event. With a E to SE wind the other side of the lake should do better. We will be leaving for Florida on Tuesday so I have been keeping a eye on the weather heading south. It looks like trip down will be a cold one with a chance of some snow on either of the two routes that I use. ( US 32 to I 65 to US 231 to I 10) I call that the west way or ( US 131 to I 94 to US 33 to I 77 to I 26 to I 95) I call that the east route. At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 18° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Climatology for today January 14th At Grand Rapids, MIThe average H/L is 31/18The record high is 53° in 1928 the coldest maximum is 7 in 1929The record low is -13° set in 2015 the warmest minimum is 44 in 1929The most snow fall is 7.2” in 1963The most on the ground is 22” in 1979Last year the H/L was 31/18 and there was no snow on the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 At hr 144 euro has a strong Colorado low but also has a very strong system in southern Canada (sub 985) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 -110% that doesn’t verify!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 In terms of the low positioning at 168 euro and gfs are nearly identical But up in Canada? Not so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro came further south than previous runs. Still gives Minnesota and northern Wisconsin the best snow, but from my perspective, seems to be a step in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 -46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! What an ice box! What a name! Can I pass on both, lol? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro came further south than previous runs. Still gives Minnesota and northern Wisconsin the best snow, but from my perspective, seems to be a step in the right direction. Definitely. Just need a weaker northern stream like gfs is showing and get some blocking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro MJO going into Null Phases in the extended...will come out in the cold phases to open Feb??? LRC says yes... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Cloudy and a temp of 15F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 18z still has a good cutter for next weekend. Much stronger with northern stream system but it digs it far enough south where it still doesn’t matter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 And an active long range as well Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 We all know what happens when 18z GFS fantasy range shows a 4-day long storm here! Yup, it happens! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 90DD3C06-CE49-46A7-8AAE-44112686190D.pngBetter start a thread. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 yeah just lock that in...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GEFS has two primary tracks for next week's storm now. Perfect track for us then around snow starved areas like Chicago or S WI, or perfect track for a Dakota special then Northwoods hit. One member has a KC special, and 2 members have half-assed "storms". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is Tom one of the mets at the Hastings office now? .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018Went with CONSshort for lows tonight/highs Monday, with highs inthe single digits and teens for Monday and Tuesday with a modestwarmup in store as the week further progresses and the upper ridgeedges east. We have another shot at Rain/Snow over the weekendin advance of yet another amplified longwave trough approaching,which will introduce yet another shot of cold air toward the veryend of the long term and beyond. We cannot seem to break thispersistent cold pattern as fast as we had once thought it would. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GEFS has two primary tracks for next week's storm now. Perfect track for us then around snow starved areas like Chicago or S WI, or perfect track for a Dakota special then Northwoods hit. One member has a KC special, and 2 members have half-assed "storms".EPS is mostly the same. Except more members take the Dakotas track with snow & the means are generally weaker. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cloudy and quite cold w a reading of 12F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Money post disapeared Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Money post disapearedWhat you talking about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well GFs back to its track through Iowa again. Easy come. Easy go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 What you talking aboutOne 2nd I saw a money post on the Colorado low now it's gone. We are gonna need that high pressure to play ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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