January Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z doesn't quite get there...

[High Desert Mat!]

If you extrapolate the 12Z GFS beyond 17 days and then re-configure the pattern in your mind to something better... you could imagine a major arctic blast. <_>

 

 

 

Oh Lord....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z GFS looks like it is prolonging the cold in the upper midwest and delaying our pattern change a bit.

Sounds familiar.

[TT-SEA]

I think February will feature more interesting weather and lowland snow at some point.   

 

January just feels too early this time around.

[stuffradio]

I was clearing out some weeds yesterday to prep for winter planting. Good timing by me!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think February will feature more interesting weather and lowland snow at some point.

 

January just feels too early this time around.

I am thinking March... for some slop.

[TT-SEA]

I was clearing out some weeds yesterday to prep for winter planting. Good timing by me!

 

I did some weeding yesterday as well.    We have parsley doing very well in the garden.   Does parsley usually make it through the entire winter?

[Guest El nina]

I did some weeding yesterday as well.    We have parsley doing very well in the garden.   Does parsley usually make it through the entire winter?

I have some catnip still surviving.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Does it seem like niñas will bust and be more niño-ish more often than niños busting and being niña-ish?

 

Sure seems to have happened a lot since I moved here. Not a single niño has brought snow here while many niñas have ended up with nothing too. 2010-11 and this winter being the most notable.

[Deweydog]

I think February will feature more interesting weather and lowland snow at some point.

 

January just feels too early this time around.

Translation:

 

It's the seventh of a quiet January and the 12z GFS of that particular January 7th wasn't very exciting.

[Phil]

I was clearing out some weeds yesterday to prep for winter planting. Good timing by me!

Did some digging w/ the plumbers yesterday (we have two blown pipes leading outdoors, apparently, resulting from a leaking shut-off valve), and our soil is frozen solid down at least 8-10”. It’s hilarious...I don’t see how any weeds could survive this. But they’ll find a way, that much I’m sure of.

[snow_wizard]

Did some digging w/ the plumbers yesterday (we have two blown pipes leading outdoors, apparently, resulting from a leaking shut-off valve), and our soil is frozen solid down at least 8-10”. It’s hilarious...I don’t see how any weeds could survive this. But they’ll find a way, that much I’m sure of.

 

You are right about the weeds.  Those things even survive in areas with permafrost.  You would probably find weeds at ground zero of a nuclear blast site after a few years.  8 to 10 frost penetration has to be rare where you live.  Going to be very costly.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty intriguing how every GFS ensemble run keeps getting just a tad better than the previous.  The GEM ensemble looks even a bit better than the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty intriguing how every GFS ensemble run keeps getting just a tad better than the previous.  The GEM ensemble looks even a bit better than the GFS.

 

Yeah I was going to mention the same thing. Best ensemble suite yet. 

[Phil]

You are right about the weeds. Those things even survive in areas with permafrost. You would probably find weeds at ground zero of a nuclear blast site after a few years. 8 to 10 frost penetration has to be rare where you live. Going to be very costly.

Lol, it’s insane. Mother Nature just doesn’t give a crap sometimes.

 

And yeah, I’ve never seen the frost this deep, and we’ve seen MUCH colder weather than this. I think it’s a combination of the lack of snowcover insulating the ground and the prolonged nature of the cold (IAD broke its record for most consecutive days below freezing..12 days and counting). Even the 1970s never pulled off sustained subfreezing weather like this.

[snow_wizard]

Lol, it’s insane. Mother Nature just doesn’t give a crap sometimes.

 

And yeah, I’ve never seen the frost this deep, and we’ve seen MUCH colder weather than this. I think it’s a combination of the lack of snowcover insulating the ground and the prolonged nature of the cold (IAD broke its record for most consecutive days below freezing..12 days and counting). Even the 1970s never pulled off sustained subfreezing weather like this.

 

I haven’t touched freezing in 13 days. Hopefully that streak ends tomorrow..I’d like a little break so I can complete the retaining wall and finish staining the deck.

 

This kind of sounds like olden days stuff.  Let's hope we have entered a new and exciting climate phase.

[Phil]

Despite all this cold, I think SEA still has seen more snowfall than DCA this winter (3.0” vs 2.7”).

 

#LolDCA #TooColdToSnow

 

I’ve seen 6.7”, but that’s still lol.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I was going to mention the same thing. Best ensemble suite yet. 

 

One interesting thing on the ECMWF and GEM ensemble means vs the GFS is they progress the Asian ULL much more than the GFS does.  The GFS holding the ULL back makes the blocking set up a bit too far west.  The other two are much more favorable for having a great outcome for us.  I'm pretty sure this is due to the GFS holding the MJO wave back too much which is a common error on that model.  Also...the mean of the last 4 CFS runs shows cold beginning late this month and climaxing in February.

[snow_wizard]

Despite all this cold, I think SEA still has seen more snowfall than DCA this winter (3.0” vs 2.7”).

 

#LolDCA #TooColdToSnow

 

I’ve seen 6.7”, but that’s still lol.

 

Yes...the agony of overpowering cold.  We had that happen two times in 2013-14.

[snow_wizard]

I find it kind of interesting how the last couple of GFS runs have greatly weakened and shrunken the extent of the Aleutian low next week.  Previous runs had that much more pronounced.

[crf450ish]

.

[Phil]

Yes...the agony of overpowering cold. We had that happen two times in 2013-14.

I recall the PDX folks raking in the goods that year. Sort of like when Raleigh NC scores a blizzard and I’m left smoking cirrus.

[Phil]

Going to be very costly.

And yeah, we were actually planning to go skiing out in Park City, UT in March. But it looks like these repairs might put the kibosh on those plans. Very expensive fix.

[TT-SEA]

And yeah, we were actually planning to go skiing out in Park City, UT in March. But it looks like these repairs might put the kibosh on those plans. Very expensive fix.

 

We are booked in Park City during the first week of April.   Hopefully they get enough snow in the next couple months to extend the ski season to the normal end around April 15th.   

 

Skiing in April there might be pretty toasty.    

[Phil]

Sorry for all this OT crap, but these records that are dropping today fascinate me. I’ll try to make this my final OT post for the day.

 

BWI (records extend back to 1872) set a record low today of 1*F. Broke the old record of 3*F, set in 2014. So there’s definitely been some old-timer’s style cold here in recent years (cool to see years like 2014 and 2015 showing up amongst years from the 1880s).

 

IAD (records extend back to 1962) also set a record low today of -1*F. Broke the old record of 1*F, which was also from 2014.

[TT-SEA]

Sure wish the rain would stop for at least 10min at some point this weekend...

 

 

Looked like it was going to rain non-stop today when I woke up... but now there is a huge break in the action and you can even see the sun through the clouds at times.  

 

 

Yesterday was dry for 95% of the day here as well.     

[MossMan]

Looked like it was going to rain non-stop today when I woke up... but now there is a huge break in the action and you can even see the sun through the clouds at times.

 

Yesterday was dry for 95% of the day here as well.

Wish I could say the same...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like ecmwf trended more south but i can't see the frame that shows where the low comes onshore.

[Phil]

We are booked in Park City during the first week of April. Hopefully they get enough snow in the next couple months to extend the ski season to the normal end around April 15th.

 

Skiing in April there might be pretty toasty.

Cool. We did that one year while staying at the Canyons Resort (I think it was in April but it might’ve been in March..not sure) and there was a massive storm system that came through which made the trip special for me. Started off as rain and strong SE winds that evening, and was followed by a late evening cold front passage which was followed by blizzard conditions overnight. It dumped something like 12-18” in 7-8hrs. Fell asleep before the front, so when I woke up and saw the snow drifts I was like wtf?

 

This was sometime in the middle 2000s, I think. It must have been, because I was going through my growth spurt and was getting wobbly on my skis, lol. There are no excuses for wiping out on blues when your grandmother is skiing double black diamonds with ease.

[Phil]

There was also a large avalanche on Squaretop mountain that year, IIRC. I’ll never ski that sucker..doesn’t look all that difficult but too much bad juju there for me.

[Jesse]

We are booked in Park City during the first week of April. Hopefully they get enough snow in the next couple months to extend the ski season to the normal end around April 15th.

 

Skiing in April there might be pretty toasty.

Probably not this year. Expect deep troughing to be parked over the west most of April and May.

[Geos]

Looked like it was going to rain non-stop today when I woke up... but now there is a huge break in the action and you can even see the sun through the clouds at times.  

 

 

Yesterday was dry for 95% of the day here as well.     

 

Yeah not too bad right now. 

Almost seems like a rain shadowing effect in King County right now.

[TT-SEA]

Probably not this year. Expect deep troughing to be parked over the west most of April and May.

 

Probably true.

[Jesse]

Probably true.

Should be great skiing at least.

[TT-SEA]

Should be great skiing at least.

 

Yeah... I think my kids would prefer cold and snowy while we are there.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like ecmwf trended more south but i can't see the frame that shows where the low comes onshore.

 

12Z ECMWF trended a little north with the ULL on Thurday.  

[BLI snowman]

Euro is a bit quicker than the GFS with plowing that energy into us. Looks like the 16th is when winter begins.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF definitely more aggressive than the GFS/GEM with the zonal flow onslaught in the 8-10 day period.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Euro is a bit quicker than the GFS with plowing that energy into us. Looks like the 16th is when winter begins.

 

Winter in terms of a parade of storms with rain and wind... does not look too impressive even at day 10 with any arctic air up north. 

 

[Jesse]

Euro more in line with the GFS and GEM ensembles.