January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

Jesse can insult others. I cant. Got it. I'm on my way to mod review everyone.

Do you have a setup where you get a text notification on your phone whenever I post?

[TT-SEA]

Well, they weren't really visible yet until I cleared the barkdust back.

 

 

But they are coming up... even there.   

 

One person in Tacoma said her daffodils are up 4 inches already.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you have a setup where you get a text notification on your phone whenever I post?

 

And here we thought forum tech was a dinosaur. 

[umadbro]

Do you have a setup where you get a text notification on your phone whenever I post?

What can I say? I'm infatuated. Cant be that I'm just sitting at home watching football and reading.

[Jesse]

But they are coming up... even there.

 

One person in Tacoma said her daffodils are up 4 inches already.

I’m sure that got you up four inches.

[Phil]

To be fair the reason Tim does it is for the very thing we are giving the issue, and by extension him, right now....attention.

 

Between him and Phil I can’t decide who was ignored more frequently as a small child.

I don’t post here because I want attention, if that’s what you’re wondering. I just enjoy taking science to its limit and making pointed long range forecasts. It’s a fun learning experience for me, even when I mess up.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

I don’t post here because I want attention, if that’s what you’re wondering. I just enjoy taking science to its limit and making pointed long range forecasts. It’s a fun learning experience for me, even when I mess up.

I believe it. I do think sometimes you go for the sensationalistic attention grabbers just a bit though, and those tend to be the forecasts that get you in the most hot (cold?) water. When you don’t let that get the best of you you do a stellar job. And I don’t mean that in a snarky, backhanded westcoastexpat way.

[Guest El nina]

You should be fine as long as the trees look like their in good shape. Douglas Firs are pretty strong trees and can withstand some punishment.

The driveway is under them and it gets extremely messy. It's a pain having to clean up everytime there is even a modest gust out of the south. This winter has been very nice in that respect so far.

[James Jones]

I’ve noticed those all over as well. What kind of tree is that? A lot of them seem to be stuck in autumn foliage mode. Seems to be particular to that species.

 

I don’t think weather is even a factor since temperatures have easily been cold enough since October to push them into dormancy.

 

I think Phil is right, Sweetgum. If it is one, it's really odd considering it's native to warmer parts of the continent:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidambar_styraciflua

 

For whatever reason, this particular tree never clued in to the fact that it's winter.

[Phil]

I believe it. I do think sometimes you go for the sensationalistic attention grabbers just a bit though, and those tend to be the forecasts that get you in the most hot (cold?) water. When you don’t let that get the best of you you do a stellar job. And I don’t mean that it a snarky, backhanded westcoastexpat way.

Very fair. I think you’re pretty much on point, to be honest about it. Maybe it’s partially a result of my enthusiasm when it comes to climate dynamics, perhaps analogous to Jim’s enthusiasm for cold/snow in the PNW, to some extent.

 

It’s tough to keep it in check sometimes, but at least I’ll always enjoy my job. Lol.

[Deweydog]

Those who might be a little worried about some of the sudden growth should keep in mind it's perfectly normal and won't prevent there being several more weeks of winter.

 

Now sun angles are a different story. If those start increasing then you can start to worry.

[TT-SEA]

Heather starting to bloom as well now... and Sallal bushes always look good in the winter and bloom very early.    Both plants add color to the winter landscape in the PNW.  

 

[Jesse]

I think Phil is right, Sweetgum. If it is one, it's really odd considering it's native to warmer parts of the continent:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidambar_styraciflua

 

For whatever reason, this particular tree never clued in to the fact that it's winter.

Yup, I think Phil nailed it. That fits the description of what I’ve been seeing as well.

 

This trusty screenshot from Wikipedia could explain the phenomenon we are observing:

 

[Geos]

Wet!!!!!!!!!! Ahhhhhhh. Outside Christmas lights are staying up another week, I want to stay dry. However I did manage to de-Christmas the inside of the house!

 

I got some down last week, but the icicle light along the gutter will be waiting as well.

Hoping for a break in the weather late week/next weekend. 

 

Been raining more moderate on and off the last few hours here. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

The botany forums are on a different site.

[Phil]

I think Phil is right, Sweetgum. If it is one, it's really odd considering it's native to warmer parts of the continent:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidambar_styraciflua

 

For whatever reason, this particular tree never clued in to the fact that it's winter.

We have a sweetgum as well, and it’s also amongst the last to shed its leaves (only Weeping Willow and Black Oak hold them longer here). It’s a surprisingly hardy tree with regards to temperature swings, but doesn’t always handle wind well. Plus those spiny fruits are like missiles in bigger wind events (they hurt like a mofo).

 

There are a number of natural ecotypes and cultivars as well with regards to sweetgum, IIRC. So I guess they could be found in various climates and have a number of unique adaptations in that regard.

[snow_wizard]

You mean the QBO? It probably started with that strange series of off-sequence slow propagating rossby waves in February 2016, depositing easterly momentum beneath the westerly shear, triggering the early final warming/PV breakdown in March of that year, such that we actually entered our boreal summer stratospheric circulation by the spring equinox, at which point the damage was done and there was no going back.

 

This year, the process has been slow for other, more “normal” reasons. A rossby breaker/SSW would actually accelerate the process this time, ironically.

 

Oops!  I did mean QBO.

[Phil]

Our Sweetgum turns mostly red/purple, not much yellow that I can recall. Seems to hold its leaves very late into the fall, though, even through hard freezes. Usually drops the leaves in late November or early December, then starts dropping those spiky fruits towards Christmas.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Phil likes to spew all these large words and at the end of the day he is normally wrong.  Guess he will learn more once he is older than 25, lol.

[Phil]

Phil likes to spew all these large words and at the end of the day he is normally wrong. Guess he will learn more once he is older than 25, lol.

I blame the lack of east wind density.

[snow_wizard]

I like how the models are advertising a total collapse of the surface pressure over Australia in the coming days.  A sure sign the pattern is in for a big shakeup and probably one favorable for us.

[Phil]

List of Sweetgum cultivars from wiki. Yeah, lots of variability here..more than I thought.

 

I’m guessing ours is the “Moraine” breed, given it’s probably over 60ft tall at ~ 35yrs old, and also fits the oval/rounded shape as described, along with the reddish hue to the leaves in fall.

 

 

[MossMan]

Someday a January on this forum will once again feature talk about epic snows and fridged temps that will be slamming us from the north. But not much to talk about right now other than that massive hit on Newton, and my wet mud that is really springing to life outside!

[TT-SEA]

Someday a January on this forum will once again feature talk about epic snows and fridged temps that will be slamming us from the north. But not much to talk about right now other than that massive it on Newton, and my wet mud that is really springing to life outside!

 

Cam got clobbered.  

[Jesse]

Ensembles continue to look somewhat decent after mid month. At least for more of a Niña pattern.

[MossMan]

Cam got clobbered.

He sure did! Surprised he came back in the game.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I once mistakenly believed Cam Newton would be the Michael Jordan of football.

[Phil]

The 384hr GFS is about to take out the PV.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018010718&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=669

 

Just FWIW, if we actually pull off a legit SSW, it could help complete the QBO cycle, which would constructively feed back with the Indo-Pacific tropical forcing to maintain the -PNA during the second half of winter.

 

We’re talking super-duper clown range stuff here, though, and it has to be a complete destruction of the vortex, not one of the half a**ed sissy punches that just pisses off the vortex more than it already is. Lol.

[MossMan]

The 384hr GFS is about to take out the PV.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018010718&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=669

 

Just FWIW, if we actually pull off a legit SSW, it could help complete the QBO cycle, which would constructively feed back with the Indo-Pacific tropical forcing to maintain the -PNA during the second half of winter.

 

We’re talking super-duper clown range stuff here, though, and it has to be a complete destruction of the vortex, not one of the half a**ed sissy punches that just pisses off the vortex more than it already is. Lol.

Finally something favorable for us!

[snow_wizard]

Finally something favorable for us!

 

The models have really been close to getting good the past couple of days.  I like what is about to take place in the tropics too.

[Phil]

Finally something favorable for us!

Only if it happens.

 

The QBO analogs that flipped quickly enough to sustain the -PNA through Feb/Mar all featured major SSW events between New Years and Feb 10th. Those that failed to transition also failed to take out the PV beforehand.

 

I literally just realized this. So yeah, I think taking out the vortex might be especially crucial this year, just like it was in 1988/89. We’ll see.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Finally something favorable for us!

Lol 384 hours... lol — I am not sure if that is favorable... maybe inside 240 there would be a 10% chance.

[Jesse]

Only if it happens.

 

The QBO analogs that flipped quickly enough to sustain the -PNA through Feb/Mar all featured major SSW events between New Years and Feb 10th. Those that failed to transition also failed to take out the PV beforehand.

 

I literally just realized this. So yeah, I think taking out the vortex might be especially crucial this year, just like it was in 1988/89. We’ll see.

It would be nice, but it seems like long range calls for SSW events rarely pan out. ssw (sad snow wizard) event is more likely.

[umadbro]

Cam Newton pout session coming up!

[TT-SEA]

Cam Newton pout session coming up!

 

Love to see him lose. 

[bainbridgekid]

Just saw an ad for KIRO weather and the weather guy said "turn to us, because the same Winter morning can bring rain in Seattle, flooding in Snohomish, and snow in Tacoma."

 

Uh, no. No it could not.

[Phil]

It would be nice, but it seems like long range calls for SSW events rarely pan out. ssw (sad snow wizard) event is more likely.

Lol. Been a rough stretch, but statistically we’re well overdue for one.

 

This is the now second longest stretch on record without a SSW event. The period of record extends well back into the 1950s, so it’s safe to say we can’t keep this dormant streak going much longer.

[MossMan]

Just saw an ad for KIRO weather and the weather guy said "turn to us, because the same Winter morning can bring rain in Seattle, flooding in Snohomish, and snow in Tacoma."

 

Uh, no. No it could not.

Haha! Harry Wappler is turning over in his grave hearing that!

[Timmy]

Love to see him lose.

How’d the Seahawks do in their playoff game?