January Weather In the PNW

[snow_wizard]

What happened to Mount Agung saving us from Tim’s early blooming daffodils?

 

In all seriousness a major volcano would probably be a good trigger to get us into a good global cooling episode.  I think Phil is largely correct that we are seeing heat release from the ocean right now delaying the onset of that.  It's pretty amazing how just a few tenths of a degree of global cooling can have huge effects.  1985 was the last time global temps really tanked and we got huge benefit from it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was looking through my personal weather records and realized I went from Jan 2001 through Nov 2005 without a single month averaging below 40 degrees.  Now we see them all the time.  In general I think the Jan 1999 through Dec 2006 period was where we bottomed out.  It has been much better since.

 

Wow. Not even January 2004?

[snow_wizard]

Wow. Not even January 2004?

 

Nope.  It torched way too hard after the cold wave.  It's incredible how easily I score sub 40 months now.  Things have shifted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nope.  It torched way too hard after the cold wave.  It's incredible how easily I score sub 40 months now.  Things have shifted.

 

Silverton had a 38.7 mean that month so that surprises me.

[BLI snowman]

Then we followed up with the mediocre 2001-02 and the super dud of 02-03'...

 

March 2002 was at least a sustained nice upper level pattern but was a definite case of too little-too late. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 2002 was at least a sustained nice upper level pattern but was a definite case of too little-too late. 

 

True. On the valley floor we saw lots of snow falling that month. Not much in the way of sticking, but it was something. 

 

January 2002 had two major foothills snow events at least. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. Everything is still totally dormant here.

You are just not looking. Garden group on FB is very active now with reports of things coming up or even blooming (early blooming stuff) in the lowlands all over the place... even in the colder and more stagnant places. I am sure its no different there. Quite a few posts from Maple Valley and Auburn.

[BLI snowman]

I was looking through my personal weather records and realized I went from Jan 2001 through Nov 2005 without a single month averaging below 40 degrees.  Now we see them all the time.  In general I think the Jan 1999 through Dec 2006 period was where we bottomed out.  It has been much better since.

 

Looks like we had three here in that timeframe (Dec. 2001, Jan. 2002, Jan. 2004). 2014-15 and 2004-05 were our last two winters to not score a sub-40 month. It's pretty rare.

[BLI snowman]

True. On the valley floor we saw lots of snow falling that month. Not much in the way of sticking, but it was something. 

 

January 2002 had two major foothills snow events at least. 

 

That was a winter where the upper level patterns seemed to favor us, especially later on, but there just wasn't much cold air to go around.

[Deweydog]

18z!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

True. On the valley floor we saw lots of snow falling that month. Not much in the way of sticking, but it was something. 

 

January 2002 had two major foothills snow events at least. 

 

Silver Falls recorded 30" of snow in January 2002, even with a couple days missing when snow may have fallen. They had some snow in December 01', and recorded snow in March 02', though some of their biggest snowfall days that month are missing too. Given the missing days and that I usually do better than the park for snow, it may have been a 50"+ winter here. 

[Phil]

So, I think March will (largely) be determined by one factor this year, and will be more straightforward.

 

I could find six non-contaminated -ENSO winters featuring QBOs transitioning from positive to negative @ 50mb.

 

These are 1960/61, 1962/63, 1981/82, 1983/84, 1995/96, and 2000/01. Of these winters, three had completed the transition to easterly/-QBO @ 50mb by March. These are 1960/61, 1962/63, and 1981/82.

 

All of these featured more typical -PNA/SE-ridge patterns through March, with some variability, some of which is explainable via the rapidity of said QBO flips, solar, warm pool, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

Now, the three winters which failed to transition into easterly/-QBO @ 50mb by March were 1983/84, 1995/96, and 2000/01. Those years featured very consistent +PNA/eastern trough patterns during the month of March, again with some modest differences, like the first group:

 

 

 

[Phil]

So, what does this imply?

 

Well, for one, it implies that the February transition into a more traditional Niña/-PNA cell could end up being a short lived/intraseasonal affair if the system fails to downwell the easterly shear/-QBO to 50mb within the next 7 weeks.

 

However, if the system does indeed successfully flip modes in this regard, then the back half of winter may behave more like a traditional La Niña.

[Phil]

So..watch those QBO/stratosphere numbers! They probably hold the answers to the second half of this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The details are not to exciting, but definitely some nice troughing on the 18z...

[Dave]

This winter sucks @ss. I wonder if Phil is ready for his personal tour of the pit of misery.

[Jesse]

The spring talk in January every year is so silly. It happens like clockwork and everyone acts like it’s this amazing anomaly or sign of something. Even last year when we were experiencing our coldest regional January in at least 25 years there was talk of bulbs popping up. If that is going to happen during a year where some west side locations have average monthly temps near freezing, it is going to happen every year.

[Phil]

FWIW, I’m not very interested in the upcoming jet extension, as far as western cold is concerned.

 

When the jet peaks/retracts, I guess a modest -PNA response is possible, but I’m not sure how long it lasts before the NW-Pacific trough/AK-BC ridge/Hudson Bay Vortex pattern returns.

 

I’m more interested in what could happen in February/March and when the QBO flips @ 50mb, and perhaps if a SSW could accelerate this process.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The spring talk in January every year is so silly. It happens like clockwork and everyone acts like it’s this amazing anomaly or sign of something. Even last year when we were experiencing our coldest regional January in at least 25 years there was talk of bulbs popping up. If that is going to happen during a year where some west side locations have average monthly temps near freezing, it is going to happen every year.

 

I agree. It is moronic trolling.

[snow_wizard]

The details are not to exciting, but definitely some nice troughing on the 18z...

 

I like how much more impressive the blocking is on this run.  It's ultimately a bit too far west, but we get two decent cold shots in the 10 to 15 day period.  Likely the GFS is progressing the MJO wave too slowly so the blocking may end up in the sweet spot late month.  Good chance the ensemble will improve again.

 

I still think it's utterly crazy to be giving up on this winter.  Even giving up on something really good is a bit short sighted.

[snow_wizard]

I agree. It is moronic trolling.

 

There probably would have been someone saying it during the three warm days in Jan 1950.

[James Jones]

You are just not looking. Garden group on FB is very active now with reports of things coming up or even blooming (early blooming stuff) in the lowlands all over the place... even in the colder and more stagnant places. I am sure its no different there. Quite a few posts from Maple Valley and Auburn.

 

I saw this tree today and it made me think of you, lol. Winter never started!!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, I’m not very interested in the upcoming jet extension, as far as western cold is concerned.

 

When the jet peaks/retracts, I guess a modest -PNA response is possible, but I’m not sure how long it lasts before the NW-Pacific trough/AK-BC ridge/Hudson Bay Vortex pattern returns.

 

I’m more interested in what could happen in February/March and when the QBO flips @ 50mb, and perhaps if a SSW could accelerate this process.

 

Does anyone have any idea why the MJO is acting so weird yet?  First we had the skipped negative phase last winter and now we have it taking an unprecedentedly long time to down well form 40mb to 50mb.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I agree. It is moronic trolling.

Yep and every place blooms at different time anyways. If i see a flower even try to poke its head out of my tundra i will step on it like a bug.

[snow_wizard]

Why is it I never see this early spring stuff in my neighborhood?  I never even see crocuses until mid Feb most years.  At any rate it's meaningless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought I would patronize Tim and go look for blooming bulbs. Here are my daffodils! 

 

I can kind of see one down there...

 

Oh, here. We'll pull some barkdust away...

 

[snow_wizard]

Yep and every place blooms at different time anyways. If i see a flower even try to poke its head out of my tundra i will step on it like a bug.

 

I might even resort to using a shovel...

[ShawniganLake]

Does anyone have any idea why the MJO is acting so weird yet? First we had the skipped negative phase last winter and now we have it taking an unprecedentedly long time to down well form 40mb to 50mb.

QBO!

[Jesse]

I saw this tree today and it made me think of you, lol. Winter never started!!!!!

 

 

I’ve noticed those all over as well. What kind of tree is that? A lot of them seem to be stuck in autumn foliage mode. Seems to be particular to that species.

 

I don’t think weather is even a factor since temperatures have easily been cold enough since October to push them into dormancy.

[TT-SEA]

The spring talk in January every year is so silly. It happens like clockwork and everyone acts like it’s this amazing anomaly or sign of something. Even last year when we were experiencing our coldest regional January in at least 25 years there was talk of bulbs popping up. If that is going to happen during a year where some west side locations have average monthly temps near freezing, it is going to happen every year.

 

Leaves turn every fall as well... we still talk about that.   

 

I always take note of what is happening with the vegetation.   I said it was not that unusual at all.   Our daffodils have come up every year in January since at least 2013... I can't remember before that.  

 

Side note... there is no way everything is dormant in Covington.   The grass is green all over the entire Snoqualmie Valley.    I don't think PNW lowlanders really know what dormant looks like.   The Midwest without snow cover in the winter is starkly brown.  

 

Posting this pic again from Monday... that is not dormant grass.  

 

[TT-SEA]

I thought I would patronize Tim and go look for blooming bulbs. Here are my daffodils! 

 

I can kind of see one down there...

 

 

Oh, here. We'll pull some barkdust away...

 

 

 

 

They are coming up even at 1,600 feet.   Told you.   

[Blizzard777]

Ugh! Going to be out of town as well.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

One heatwave in late June. The rest of the summer was a snooze-fest.

I see, thanks.

[Jesse]

Yep and every place blooms at different time anyways. If i see a flower even try to poke its head out of my tundra i will step on it like a bug.

To be fair the reason Tim does it is for the very thing we are giving the issue, and by extension him, right now....attention.

 

Between him and Phil I can’t decide who was ignored more frequently as a small child.

[umadbro]

To be fair the reason Tim does it is for the very thing we are giving the issue, and by extension him, right now....attention.

 

Between him and Phil I can’t decide who was ignored more frequently as a small child.

Jesse can insult others. I cant. Got it. I'm on my way to mod review everyone.

[Phil]

Does anyone have any idea why the MJO is acting so weird yet? First we had the skipped negative phase last winter and now we have it taking an unprecedentedly long time to down well form 40mb to 50mb.

You mean the QBO? It probably started with that strange series of off-sequence slow propagating rossby waves in February 2016, depositing easterly momentum beneath the westerly shear, triggering the early final warming/PV breakdown in March of that year, such that we actually entered our boreal summer stratospheric circulation by the spring equinox, at which point the damage was done and there was no going back.

 

This year, the process has been slow for other, more “normal” reasons. A rossby breaker/SSW would actually accelerate the process this time, ironically.

[TT-SEA]

I’ve noticed those all over as well. What kind of tree is that? A lot of them seem to be stuck in autumn foliage mode. Seems to be particular to that species.

 

I don’t think weather is even a factor since temperatures have easily been cold enough since October to push them into dormancy.

 

I know there is some variety of an oak tree that holds it leaves through January and then starts over again... there is a road in North Bend lined with them and they were fully leafed out and green in December when I went by there.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They are coming up even at 1,600 feet.   Told you.   

 

Well, they weren't really visible yet until I cleared the barkdust back.

[Phil]

I saw this tree today and it made me think of you, lol. Winter never started!!!!!

 

That looks like a Sweetgum, but I can’t tell for sure.