Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 From OMA- Main forecast concern is the impending winter weather event tonight and Thursday. In the meantime, expect clouds to only increase today, with particularly grungy low clouds and some visibility restrictions in western IA and easternmost NE. Temperatures will remain mild under continued southerly surface to mid-level warm air advection. Meanwhile, the southwestern upper-level trough will deepen today as it moves toward the TX panhandle, with the Canadian trough dropping toward the Dakotas. Think that other than some mist in the grungy areas, precipitation will hold off during the day today until both systems are closer. Toward the early side of this evening, as southern low opens and ejects to the central Plains, models consistently break out showers and perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder in the warm sector (funny to use that phrase in January). Later in the evening, the post-frontal precipitation (rain or mix,then quickly changing to snow) approaches the northeastern CWA. Have backed off on POPs in the evening hours in between those areas and have slowed the approach of the post-frontal precipitation a bit. As the two systems phase, the focus for heaviest precipitation becomes the frontal zone as it reaches north central IA to east central and southeast NE. Post-frontal winds continue to look strong, with speeds around 25-30 mph and gusts up to around 35 mph. The northwestern CWA ends up missing the sustained frontogenetic lift, and thus think most of that areawill see lighter snowfall amounts of 1-3". As a result, and givenearlier start time to snow, will convert watch to an advisory forsnow and blowing snow north of a line from around Wayne to David City to Fairbury. Have some confidence in a 4-7" snowfall band likely extending fromsome part of the CWA eastward into IA, with amounts supported by snow- liquid conversion of QPF as well as by the Garcia method, asfrontogenetic forcing is sustained from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As with any banded snowfall situation, the confidence on the placement of that likely rather narrow band is on the low side, though current indications would say it would endup within a county or two of I-80 in Nebraska and I-80 to Highway30 in Iowa. Naturally, this is an awfully high visibility segmentof our forecast area, with Lincoln on the western fringe, Omaha/Council Bluffs potentially in the swath, and both I-80 and I-29 at risk for the higher-end amounts. Think some part of the remaining watch area may eventually need a warning, but would liketo give the next shift another chance to look at the model trendsregarding placement of the mid-level frontogenetic band, especially since snow won't begin there until after midnight. Haveleft a watch, and added a few counties on the southern side to capture potential for the higher swath and trends a bit further south. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 No major change from DMX- (not surprising) Tonight into Thursday: Scenario remains similar as in past nights with overall precip types, frontal passage, amounts etc. Biggest changes continue to be on placement with the models coming in a bit further east/south with the track of the heavier snow band. The biggest issue regarding this system though continues to be the strong push of cold air and gusty winds on the back side of this system. Given overall snow amounts in the light to moderate range, the gusty winds creating the blowing and drifting snow and reducing visibilities especially in rural areas will make for hazardous travel conditions across much of the northern/western portions of the forecast area. Even in areas that are not expected to receive much snow toward the DSM/ALO metro area and points southeast, there will be a period of time where icy conditions can be expected and some reduction in visibilities as the snow sets in and northwest winds increase. With snow amounts generally around an inch or less in the aforementioned areas, prolonged visibility reductions from blowing snow not expected but a few hour period surrounding the time of transition to snow is possible. Additional travel headaches outside the watch area possible as temperatures rapidly fall behind the front and icy conditions occur from the initial wintry mix/snow freezing to surfaces including walkways and roads. This timing is expected to happen during the morning commute hours in both the Waterloo/Des Moines areas. Further northwest in the watch area, a band of heavier snow expected to develop along a line from around the Denison area northeastward toward Fort Dodge, Algona and Forest City. Still some possibility of this heavy band to shift some in the next 12-24 hours, as the track of the sfc low becomes more defined as it lifts across western and central Iowa late Wednesday night. Deformation zone then in place across the western/northwestern half of the state into early Thursday as the mid-level trough moves through aloft. Strong push of CAA and strong pressure rises on the backside to contribute to the increasing winds. Largest isallobaric push will come across the southwest but overall NAM has around 6-8mb 3 hr pressure rises which are all decent to get blustery conditions. Much of the area could see advisory criteria sustained winds and gusts, which could lead to considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow in the watch area. Concern though centers around the type of snow expected as thermal profiles suggest initial onset of snow to be more wet, heavy with snow ratios of around 6 to 8:1, with increasing snow ratios as the column cools and the lift taps into the DGZ. Therefore not sure how well the heavier wet snow will blow. This should still only result in maybe a difference of widespread 1/2 mile vsbys versus 1/4 mile to near zero if the snow was drier, lighter but the near blizzard/blizzard conditions can't be completely ruled out. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hope this is right http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018011006/036/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 00z/06z GEFS...notable shift SE trend has commenced and now may impact our IA members...looking good for OMA/LNK members and into SE MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 3-5” in the point. May only get 1-2” if the band sets up SE of where most models currently show. Nowcast and radar watching in effect. I’m thinking leafblower as opposed to snow blower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 3-5” in the point. May only get 1-2” if the band sets up SE of where most models currently show. Nowcast and radar watching in effect. I’m thinking leafblower as opposed to snow blower.LOL...ah man, that's funny...could be worse...I was teased by the Euro just 24 hours ago that has all but vanished any chances of snow. Maybe some LES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 OAX issued advisory for Western and Northern counties. Kept the watch from Lincoln Eastward. Smart move. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 LOL...ah man, that's funny...could be worse...I was teased by the Euro just 24 hours ago that has all but vanished any chances of snow. Maybe some LES.I don’t think I’ve ever tracked a 1-2” snowfall as long as this one. It is what it is. The trend so far this winter has been southern stream dominant. The northern pieces of energy look good in the models up until 24-36 hours and then they crap out. This is no different. Still the potential for nice surprises tonight/tomorrow, but I’m not banking on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Even with model trends, I still think this will be a nowcast thing. It's nice that models are showing the band back over us 24 hours out, but really it all comes down to what happens in 24 hours. We have seen models crap the bed plenty. Who knows? The band could end up being over Grand Island. This is the type of thing that the radar will probably make the models look stupid. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 @ Madtown, RPM model looked good for your trails up in N Wisco...keeping your trip up north alive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 gfs has the heaviest where im headed... the nws isn't too impressed. 4-6 when most models show 7+ looks like should be a go just need to get it on the ground now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 NWS going 2-5 here. With recent trends I think a max amount of 5 is appropriate Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 12z NAM keeps trending SE across NE/KS/IA...looks weaker...DSM/N IA area looks like some intense "thump" snow with heavy hourly snowfall rates...2"/hr stuff showing up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 12Z NAM will not make most Nebraskans on here happy. Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 12Z NAM will not make most Nebraskans on here happy. Not good. It's almost looking like a summer time "training" thunderstorm frontal event...good luck to whoever is lucky enough to be underneath this thing...razor thin that's for sure.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM is still wrong I think. Where does that dry air in the middle come from? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 trending turdier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 3km is thin. Let's see if it thickens out as it progresses. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 OLU-THU 06Z 11-JAN 1.4 0.2 1004 85 90 0.00 550 547 THU 12Z 11-JAN -7.4 -9.6 1014 63 97 0.12 546 535 THU 18Z 11-JAN -8.1 -13.1 1023 45 42 0.01 545 527 was .23" at 12Z JYR- THU 06Z 11-JAN 1.6 0.2 1004 85 92 0.00 550 547 THU 12Z 11-JAN -7.3 -9.6 1014 64 97 0.15 546 535 THU 18Z 11-JAN -7.8 -12.3 1023 45 34 0.02 546 528 was .23" also at 12ZBoy, looking like maybe 2" of snow. Amazing and painful how this thing goes from giving me 3-6" to now a trace to 2". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 The opposite of spreading the wealth http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011012/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 3km literally looks like a Spring time severe squall line. Only difference is it's snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 3km literally looks like a Spring time severe squall line. Only difference is it's snow.My exact thoughts...it could be pound town for a couple hours if you get underneath the best frontal banding... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 They are going to need a good wet 5"-6". Terrible year so far in most of Wisconsin. @ Madtown, RPM model looked good for your trails up in N Wisco...keeping your trip up north alive... http://dx1webcamhosting.com/lolrec/trail.jpg Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Okay, where is this dry slot on the NAMily coming from? It's actually annoying. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 They are going to need a good wet 5"-6". Terrible year so far in most of Wisconsin. http://dx1webcamhosting.com/lolrec/trail.jpg #Craptastic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 HRRR isn't looking too awful so far. Nice area of rain at the end of the 12Z run. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I am going to follow the short term models more closely. Maybe they lend some good news, or more of the same. Dreaming of Colorado Lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Lando is bad right now....got friends in the Mercer area atm ans its a little better. This should be enough to make it enjoyable and get to the UP if need be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 We have all been here before and we all should know by now that models this close to event should not be taken as literal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM 3KM is literally the NAM except those outside the band fare slightly better Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hope you're able to have a great trip. Lando is bad right now....got friends in the Mercer area atm ans its a little better. This should be enough to make it enjoyable and get to the UP if need be. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 just got to check the NAM and haven't read through the thread yet. I have to imagine there are some meltdowns going on. That is one narrow deformation band. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Gonna end up right between the band to the north and the one to the south. Bare ground coming up after 43F today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I still don't see the dry slot that the short range American models are showing happening. Seriously, for a frontogenic system filled with moisture, I just don't see it. Dew points and RH values are fine throughout the system. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 This question is for eastern Nebraskans. If the GFS remains exactly the same from last night and this morning and pretty much every run since Monday morning, do we get to finally stop talking about the NAM? GFS has been arguably the most consistent model from the beginning. If 00z falls in line with NAM I rest my case and this thing is a bust. It’s like a new run comes out and everyone forgets every single model prior to it. It’s confusing and makes no sense.^^This includes attention to NAM over the EURO which has now been consistent for 2-3 runs as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 This question is for eastern Nebraskans. If the GFS remains exactly the same from last night and this morning and pretty much every run since Monday morning, do we get to finally stop talking about the NAM? GFS has been arguably the most consistent model from the beginning. If 00z falls in line with NAM I rest my case and this thing is a bust. It’s like a new run comes out and everyone forgets every single model prior to it. It’s confusing and makes no sense.We're paying attention to trends. Since last night, almost every model (including GFS) has trended Southeast. I comment on every run of every model because I feel it is important to do so in case it's a new trendsetter. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I think if the NWS was believing the southeast trend they would have placed the Falls City area in a watch as well. I don't think they're buying the last minute changes with the models-- they're clearly thinking the band will setup from Lincoln to Omaha somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 I think if the NWS was believing the southeast trend they would have placed the Falls City area in a watch as well. I don't think they're buying the last minute changes with the models-- they're clearly thinking the band will setup from Lincoln to Omaha somewhere.It's encouraging to see they left us in a watch. Means they're actually watching this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Monitoring trends is completely fine with a model that has been consistent! Folks, the NAM had us in like 8”+ a day and a half ago. GFS hasn’t deviated more than 2” since 00z Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Monitoring trends is completely fine with a model that has been consistent! Folks, the NAM had us in like 8”+ a day and a half ago. GFS hasn’t deviated more than 2” since 00z Monday.Just because a model is consistent now doesn't mean it will stay consistent. Now, I hope GFS stays consistent cuz it has 8" for me. Like I said earlier, though, I'm not buying NAM's and HRRR's idea of a slot. The DPs are literally gonna be the exact same as the temps. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.