February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.

[Tom]

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.

Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.

[hlcater]

Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.

Well your bowling ball is manifesting itself FH168-186, nice looking, but it's a loooooong ways away. I'll start getting excited 2 days out

[Niko]

@ St. Paul Storm.....

 

Just saw the post about your accident. Glad you are okay.

[gabel23]

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.

I seen that....he also mentioned last night to buckle up because the next couple weeks are gonna be wintery around here. I'm hoping for a snowy and cold start to march, and warm severe weather time ending to March!!! 

[gabel23]

Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.

Tom, I must say your knowledge of the LRC and the current weather pattern is starting to show! Looks like things will get wild for my area once again, I might have a chance at reaching 45+" of snow for the season! Hope you right though about the warm ending to March; I need all the snow gone in time for my annual good Friday golf game. This year the plan is to head up to Tatonka Golf Course up in Northern Nebraska or Table Creek in Nebraska City. I'll go anywhere in the state where it's warm enough!!! 

[Minny_Weather]

I seen that....he also mentioned last night to buckle up because the next couple weeks are gonna be wintery around here. I'm hoping for a snowy and cold start to march, and warm severe weather time ending to March!!!

Agreed. Around March 20 is when I start welcoming Spring with open arms. Gimme a good severe season!

[GDR]

I’m excited for the 50s next week

[Niko]

According to my calendar, Winter ends mid March. Then, afterwards, its all about preparations for Spring and Easter coming up down the road and etc.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro 10-day snowfall...  broken record for ec/se Iowa... if no wnw/nw flow, no snow.  The pattern is pretty active, with bowling ball potential, but odds are it'll be mostly rain for us.

 

[Stacsh]

Curious to see if the GFS continues to spin a low up south of Chicago middle of next week.  

[hlcater]

12z Euro 10-day snowfall...  broken record for ec/se Iowa... if no wnw/nw flow, no snow.  The pattern is pretty active, with bowling ball potential, but odds are it'll be mostly rain for us.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png

24" for SE SD and S MN, they've been spoiled lately, while the hwy 30 corridor in NE and Iowa have been picking up scraps for years now. If this pattern ever changes and we get a big storm, it might be a rude awakening.

[Tabitha]

The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

 

If this March 2nd storm does not shift westward by at least 250 miles; I will experience the most profound sorrow...

 

Time is running out; so I will need to put a Spell on the Atmosphere to Effectuate a Westward Shift.

 

*Looks for Her Spell Book*

[Tabitha]

If this March 2nd storm does not shift westward by at least 250 miles; I will experience the most profound sorrow...

 

Time is running out: so I will need to put a Spell on the Atmosphere to Effectuate a Westward Shift.

 

*Looks for Her Spell Book*

 

Ah; found it....

 

Thou amber moon

Thou crimson witch

Summon the black wolf

And his howling b*tch

 

I am tied to them

Forever and On

So I lift up My Cup

And adore Babylon!

[Tabitha]

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.

[bud2380]

the 18z GFS has 4 separate systems tracking the SLP directly through Iowa.  The Iowa SLP magnet is real. I'd actually love to start seeing some 50s and 60s in the extended.  Last year at this time temps hit the 70s in Eastern Iowa.  I even went golfing in shorts it was so nice out.  

[Tabitha]

Wier blier, limber lock,
Three geese in a flock
One flew east. One flew west
One flew over the cuckoo's nest!

[Tabitha]

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.

 

It seems My Spell worked too well; as the March 3rd storm jumped 400 miles to the N&W (on the 0z GFS); rather than the 250 I was aiming for.

 

I need to work on My Aim.

 

Though it now looks like a 2nd wave is developing at 240 HRS...late on March 3rd.

 

Ended up rather flat...in a flow that quickly went zonal.

 

We'll work on it.

 

Its the GFS anyway...lol.

[Tabitha]

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.

 

Working with the ECMWF; as the heavy snow closed to within about 125 miles of here with the 0z run.

[GDR]

the 18z GFS has 4 separate systems tracking the SLP directly through Iowa. The Iowa SLP magnet is real. I'd actually love to start seeing some 50s and 60s in the extended. Last year at this time temps hit the 70s in Eastern Iowa. I even went golfing in shorts it was so nice out.

if we don’t have any snow on the ground next week looks warm

[Tom]

Extraordinary warmth accompanied with a near record -PNA/SE Ridge pattern in Feb has lead to a LONG list of cities (24) with the warmest February day ever recorded for the month.  #Torch

 

 

 

[Tom]

I started a March thread....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1751-march-2018-observations-and-discussion/

[Tabitha]

It is 0 F at the Rapid City Airport; and most of the models don't have anything too extreme tonight.

 

However the ICON drops them down to -28 F by morning; and I absolutely agree with it.  Maybe not quite that far; but at least to -20 F.

 

I came quite close; the low yesterday morning was -18 F; an all-time record for the date.

[Niko]

Some icy conditions expected tomorrow morning, but quickly transitioning to plain rain. Lots of flooding here. Roads had to be closed due to snowmelt and previous heavy rains. Temps today remain in the 30s w clouds breaking in the afternoon and allowing for some sunshine to peak through.

[Niko]

Gotta love the -NAO. Big potential here for a big snowstorm for my area end of Feb to early Mar. It tries to go as a warm cutter, but changes course and heads south of SMI, which is a excellent track. Areas that get affected also are Eastern IA,  far Northern IL, Southern WI and SMI.

[jaster220]

Extraordinary warmth accompanied with a near record -PNA/SE Ridge pattern in Feb has lead to a LONG list of cities (24) with the warmest February day ever recorded for the month.  #Torch

 

 

 

 

D*mn! now that's some heat right there! My 61F came with flooding conditions, so no bueno wrt this taste of early spring

[westMJim]

This is some information as to the flooding that is expected in the Grand Rapids metro area Friday and Saturday. This is the write up from CH 13 Grand Rapids

 

GRAND RAPIDS, MICH. - There are projections, computer models and educated guesses, but no one is certain how high the Grand River will rise in West Michigan this weekend.  

So, a lot of people who live along the river are preparing for the worst. They say experience tells them to never underestimate nature.

Willow Drive NE is a residential area prone to flooding when the river is high. Now, because of snow melt and recent rain, some projections predict a flood comparable to 2013. People in low lying areas say they are getting ready.

“A little flood is nothing but what they are talking about, it’s going to be in some people’s houses down here again,” says Willow Drive resident Lawrence Kok.  “What they are talking about is the top of the bottom sash of those windows,” he says while pointing to the first-floor windows on his house."

“Prepare now,” says Kent County Emergency Manager Jack Stewart. “It still hasn't hit yet but it is going to hit. We are going to get flooded.”

Across the river from Willow Drive, a big beer festival is scheduled at Fifth Third Ballpark Friday and Saturday.  In 2013 that parking lot flooded.  

On Facebook The Michigan Brewers Guild says their Winter Beer Festival will go on as planned this weekend. They say they hope there is not a major flooding situation, but they have contingency plans for parking and traffic flow they can implement if necessary.

“The projections look like this is going to be a major event,” says Stewart. “Not quite to the degree of 2013 but we don’t know because all we have are projections.” 

[jaster220]

   ^^^ The beer drinking must go on!! To soothe the winter wx woes, if nothing else here across SWMI

 

[Hawkeye]

If we aren't going to see any snow, this isn't a bad Euro 10-day temp forecast.

 

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today w sunshine and temps in the upper 30s. Feels warmer for some reason.

[Niko]

Real surge of mild air returns early next week w temps well into the 50s. Bring it on. Would feel very pleasant and that comes w sunshine as well. Whoa!!!

[Tabitha]

Working with the ECMWF; as the heavy snow closed to within about 125 miles of here with the 0z run.

 

This March 3rd Storm has now disappeared entirely.

 

Will it come back?

 

As Judge Rayford once said; while high above eastern Maryland on a winter day in 1979:

 

"Maybe; maybe not"

[westMJim]

The flooding that will/is taking place is more likely than not the worst non ice jam flooding to take place in Michigan history. At this time the total precipitation here at Grand Rapids for this month is now at 4.82" this puts GR in 3rd place for the all time most for February and is the most for any February since 1938 when 5.30" was reported the record is 5.77" in 1898 but in looking at the daily report for that month I question that amount (there are back to back days with 1.40" and that is with 6 and 5" of snow) that would be 2.80" with just 11" of very wet snow and on the 2nd day the H/L was 22/18.  For comparison the so call GHD storm in 2011 Grand Rapids had 17.2" of snow with 0.98" of precipitation with similar temperatures

 

Here are the latest flood information 

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/area.php?wfo=GRR&hydro_type=0&hsa_type=1

[Niko]

Man, these potholes are really starting to piss me off. Horrible streets. Construction workers need to do a better job. As for flooding, there are some flooded areas in my vicinity, but hopefully, that resides soon. Near 50F today w cloudy skies.

[Niko]

A friend of mine emailed me this pick from NW New Jersey as freezing rain iced up everything.

[Tabitha]

This March 3rd Storm has now disappeared entirely.

 

Will it come back?

 

As Judge Rayford once said; while high above eastern Maryland on a winter day in 1979:

 

"Maybe; maybe not"

 

My little March 3rd snowstorm seems to be coming back to life on the 12z Euro in eastern Pennington County...less than 40 miles to my east!

[Tabitha]

If this March 2nd storm does not shift westward by at least 250 miles; I will experience the most profound sorrow...

 

Time is running out; so I will need to put a Spell on the Atmosphere to Effectuate a Westward Shift.

 

*Looks for Her Spell Book*

 

The 12z Euro Control now properly destroys SW South Dakota with a delightful blizzard.

 

Like I said; these things sometimes take time...

 

*Evil Grin*

[Hawkeye]

It's looking like a good shot at 50s here for 2 or 3 days early next week.  We can finally get rid of the remnant snow & ice and thaw the ground.

[BrianJK]

Sunny and 60 here Tuesday - hello Spring.

[Niko]

Mainly cloudy today w pleasantly chilly temps. Looking forward to next weeks delightful temps.