February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

A couple of really good signs...Forks has a dp of 29 with west winds and northern Whatcom County has already fallen to the low 30s with ENE winds.  No way we have to worry about rain by late tonight.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

CZ looks to be firing up.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now.

[snow_wizard]

850s still at -10 on Thursday on the ECMWF!  Holy sheeit!

[Perturbed Member]

Tacoma south looks really good for the Tuesday/Wednesday event on the 00z ECMWF.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now.

 

The Euro has this area getting snow too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now.

This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed.

[snow_wizard]

I'm beginning to think the next 10 days could average 10 or more degrees below normal.  That would be insane, but very possible.

[Geos]

Snowing!

Nice. I see there's some 33° temps showing up in your area.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Euro has this area getting snow too.

Yeah, I hope the models get snowier for both of us on Tuesday as we get closer.

[snow_wizard]

This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed.

 

They'll get a handle on it.

[GHweatherChris]

A couple of really good signs...Forks has a dp of 29 with west winds and northern Whatcom County has already fallen to the low 30s with ENE winds. No way we have to worry about rain by late tonight.

DP at Forks is now 27!

[Esquimalt]

It's a balmy 40 farenheight here.  I wonder when it will start dropping?  

[snow_wizard]

Everything is turning to snow on the radar now.  Cold air is certainly taking over faster than expected.

[luminen]

Just changed over to snow here after some heavy rain.

[HighlandExperience]

The Euro has this area getting snow too.

Hope that trends snowier for us on the midweek storm

[Front Ranger]

The hrrr is junk outside a few hours.

This is correct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37 here. I would imagine I will start seeing snow around 2-3am. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed.

Yeah we don't need another episode where kids are stranded on school buses until close to midnight again. Hopefully the GFS jumps on board soon enough so all the models will be on the train.

[Perturbed Member]

3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now.

 

GFS has slowly but surely been trending towards the others on that too. Things are looking pretty good for the midweek at the moment. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Tacoma south looks really good for the Tuesday/Wednesday event on the 00z ECMWF.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021800_87_494_215.png

Looking tremendous!

[Geos]

Everything is turning to snow on the radar now.  Cold air is certainly taking over faster than expected.

I wasn't expecting areas in Snohomish County to flip over this early.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS had tons of snow above 1000' next weekend. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS has slowly but surely been trending towards the others on that too. Things are looking pretty good for the midweek at the moment.

Yeah and looks like quite possibly another system drops in on Thursday. I'm not going to get much sleep this next week!

[Jbolin]

Yeah and looks like quite possibly another system drops in on Thursday. I'm not going to get much sleep this next week!

No true winter weather fan around here will.

[snow_wizard]

DP at Forks is now 27!

 

The maritime air being that dry is really going to help make it cold enough for all snow later tonight and tomorrow.  I can't imagine rain anywhere in the northern 3/4 of WA tomorrow...probably not even the extreme south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow reminds me of a poor man's version of 1/1/17.

[Esquimalt]

Wow spots are starting to show up all over the radar, including an intense band just north of Neah Bay, in Snohomish County and in Vancouver BC.  Amazing!! 

[MossMan]

35 with random snow flakes

[snow_wizard]

I think it's highly possible the afternoon temps will be colder than progged tomorrow given the way things are unfolding.

[Phil]

Radiational cooling allows the temperature to fall to it's dewpoint. Without that you're risking trapping the warmth from daytime heating at the expense of evaporative cooling that will increase the dewpoint.

Well, radiative cooling is a process of inversion and stratification. If you precipitate into an inversion you’ll just mix out the inversion. The reduction in convective overturning that creates the inversion (relative to the adiabatic/hydrostatic lapse rate present) warms the atmosphere just above the inversion. So when you mix that out, I’m not sure there’s any notable effect. The boundary layer can’t be analyzed as a parcel.

 

Plus, under CAA, you’re probably not going to radiate well from the surface at all, regardless. The atmosphere will likely be far too turbulent.

 

As for wetbulbing/evaporative cooling, it’s relevant across the entire boundary layer containing a non-zero dewpoint depression. There’s also dynamic cooling via melting of falling snow as well, if the base of the boundary layer is above freezing.

 

So, IMO, precipitation > no precipitation. At least at this point in time.

[Front Ranger]

Tomorrow reminds me of a poor man's version of 1/1/17.

Puget sound posters cannot relate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Things seem to be unfolding right on schedule to me. After 06z all the models showed the cold air just booking it south.

[HighlandExperience]

temps in bham dropped 6 degrees in 15 mins

[MossMan]

Legitimate snow now!

[jaya]

Snowing in South Everett.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow spots are starting to show up all over the radar, including an intense band just north of Neah Bay, in Snohomish County and in Vancouver BC. Amazing!!

Snowing in Shawnigan now. Still a strong SW wind too. That band heading towards Victoria could be a surprise for some.

[Esquimalt]

Snowing in Shawnigan now. Still a strong SW wind too. That band heading towards Victoria could be a surprise for some.

Yeah I think that the upper levels may be cold enough to support some snow.  Weird because that band wasn't modelled to hit Victoria, yet it's looking pretty robust.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Model struggles becoming real.

[seattleweatherguy]

Technology still has a ways to go