james1976 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts.Yeah i read DMX and was wondering that since the 0z Euro looked wet. Didnt really make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 So yesterday, from 12z to 18z to 00z, the NAM took two big steps forward, transitioning from way out of phase nothingburger to well-phased biggie. Great trend, right? Well, from 00z to 06z to 12z it gave those forward steps right back. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 I'm going to discount the NAM, because it's the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Like the NAM, the ICON became more phased by 00z, but is now back out of phase. The ICON has been reluctant to wrap this system up in general. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 This looks like it is going to be a all or nothing event... Passing showers a possibility Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Uh, oh.... after days of consistently phasing and wrapping up a biggie, the 12z GFS is showing cracks. Like the latest NAM and ICON, it's speeding up the northern wave and slowing the southern wave, leading to less/delayed phasing. Iowa gets squat this run, for the first time. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 GFS shows the storm not getting it's act together until well east of Iowa. Swing and a miss here. Let's see what the Euro says. This is clearly a very difficult storm for the models to handle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Solid run for Chi-town. Rain to heavy snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Epic run..... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018022612/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Canadian is a big nothing either. I'm very curious to see the Euro. It also wouldn't surprise me if we see this storm pop back up again on future runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts.Our WFO has actually been very good with amounts. There has been multiple times this year where looking at models, you wonder what they are looking at with the lower amounts they forecast. In the end they have been very accurate. Of course this could be because it's Nebraska, but I actually trust their forecast numbers over what the models have been showing this winter. Amounts have consistently been overdone on almost every storm on every model from the RAP/HRRR to the NAM to the global models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Our WFO has actually been very good with amounts. There has been multiple times this year where looking at models, you wonder what they are looking at with the lower amounts they forecast. In the end they have been very accurate. Of course this could be because it's Nebraska, but I actually trust their forecast numbers over what the models have been showing this winter. Amounts have consistently been overdone on almost every storm on every model from the RAP/HRRR to the NAM to the global models.They learned from last year when they overforecasted everything. Thankfully for them, this year is a colder copy of last year. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Craig, it is very important that we focus on your malfeasance. This habit of yours; of shifting culpability in an effort to exculpate yourself needs to cease immediately; if not sooner. From the tenor of your posts, I get the sense that you are; by your very nature, rebellious...someone who; Goddess forbid and shocking though it may be; might even disobey their girlfriend from time to time. LOL. @ Tabitha ..vituperative..malfeasance..exculpate..blasé Was your great-great-great-grandpa Daniel Webster by any chance? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 It also wouldn't surprise me if we see this storm pop back up again on future runs. It would surprise me. The way things have gone this year, when a storm is gone, it's gone. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 And now the UK is caving... much weaker and east this run. Gosh dangit. How many years has it been since the northern and southern streams cooperated for eastern Iowa? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Of course this happens. Iowa doesn’t get big storms. Duh. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 So, now the 12z GFS takes this on a classic track for SWMI..NAM and Euro also improved a bit on the transition from RN->SN Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Of course this happens. Iowa doesn’t get big storms. Duh. Detroit magnet rule in effect. Wouldn't surprise if they ended up being the jack-zone. Still dealing with my flooded basement, so personally the less qpf the better for mby right now. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 12z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 The thermals on the gfs are terrible. Verbatim Kuchera totals are to high across the board... Need a better phase otherwise wherever the snow falls will be a couple inches of complete slop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 You guys can take this one for us. It's already 50 degrees out and am now left wondering why I even want snow. It is seriously amazing outside. Bring me Spring already! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Euro has a 1001mb low in Central IL at hour 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 This thing crapped out fast...12z Euro is extremely weak...1001 mb low in C IL...LOL...I think the record -NAO has something to do with it. Its supposed to be off the charts about -5 on the 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 You guys can take this one for us. It's already 50 degrees out and am now left wondering why I even want snow. It is seriously amazing outside. Bring me Spring already!Bro, I'm with ya! I just had a lunch meeting with a friend and its absolutely gorgeous out there with full sun. Tomorrow is going to be top notch 61F and blue skies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Actually, the 12z Euro strengthens rapidly across IN and precip blossoms across N IL/N IN at HR 78 and then into S MI...will post maps soon.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 yep, massive changes on the Euro as well for Eastern Iowa. Basically rain changing to wet snow, with less than an inch. Any QPF related to snow went from about 1" to about .15" for Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 12z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Chicago on this run of the Euro looks like what Cedar Rapids did on yesterday's 2 runs of the Euro. About 1" qpf with 850s below zero. So big shift east on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 At 500 mb, the 12z euro is doing the same thing as every other model... northern stream is a little faster and digs less until it gets farther east, southern stream is a bit slower. It still has more for eastern Iowa than other models, but much less than earlier runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Good thing I never really got involved with this one since the runs today are overwhelmingly a massive swing and a miss for E IA, per usual. I honestly don’t think there’s anywhere else in the country that gets more systems yanked away from them than Iowa. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Well Tom's map painter a better picture than the text output I'm pulling off of accuweather does. Not quite as far east shift as I thought, but still definitely got worse for a good chunk of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 That's an interesting tail the euro has sticking up through MSP. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 weather.us has about .7 QPF at ORD falling as snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 That's an interesting tail the euro has sticking up through MSP.Agree, whats up with that??? Well, I guess it will continue to snow where it has been of late at the MSP magnet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 weather.us has about .7 QPF at ORD falling as snow...That'll prob equate to 4-5" of the wettest snow of the year if it transpires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 It's mind boggling how bad the 00z EPS was from last night suggesting the main snow to fall way north towards MKE/Fondy...only to have the 12z Euro Op and all the other models shift much farther S/SE today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 That'll prob equate to 4-5" of the wettest snow of the year if it transpires.Ya somewhere around there. concrete mixer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yeah its hard to not have spring fever when its 50 and sunny in late Feb. Im grilling a pork chop when i get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 12z Euro close-up paints quite a bit now across SWMI If this wasn't several days out yet, this might be the biggest single fall of my season. But, still too much time for it to continue a S and/or E trend, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Bro, I'm with ya! I just had a lunch meeting with a friend and its absolutely gorgeous out there with full sun. Tomorrow is going to be top notch 61F and blue skies.54 degrees here and sunny, I have checked out concerning Winter now. Unless it’s a big storm with 8+ inches of snow, keep it away. So glad to see the calendar flipping to my favorite month weather-wise around here (March) in the next few days! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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