April 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

And this I am okay with, April snows suck... this Winter sucked big time around this part of the world, there is no reason to prolong it any further.

 

Yeah I agree. I mean if it's going to happen, sure, I'll root for as much as I can get. Might as well see 12" than 1" if it's going to snow regardless. But yeah, I wish I was in the Ohio Valley right now for this severe wx outbreak instead.

[bud2380]

hope?

 

 

[NEJeremy]

And this I am okay with, April snows suck... this Winter sucked big time around this part of the world, there is no reason to prolong it any further.

Agree 100% At this point let's just take this winter out to the pasture and shoot it to put us in Omaha out of our misery Cold and brown in April is 1000x worse than cold and brown in January.

[snowstorm83]

The thing I don't like are cloudy days without any precipitation falling. Cold, but sunny days are some of my favorite weather days of the year. Bonus points if there's snow on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

The thing I don't like are cloudy days without any precipitation falling. Cold, but sunny days are some of my favorite weather days of the year. Bonus points if there's snow on the ground.

I like these days! Although bonus points are given if precip is falling, and even more bonus points if it's snow or sleet.

[Minny_Weather]

If the models showing a multi-wave snow event this weekend verify I'll jog the entire length of O Street between N 84th and NW 48th naked.

 

Don't worry, I'm attractive.

[james1976]

[james1976]

GFS looks to still be showing snow here for sun-mon

[Minny_Weather]

If models verify this weekend we could be looking at a top 5 all-time April here snow-wise

[bud2380]

12z Euro is weaker for the Sunday/Monday system than the past few runs have been.  

[Minny_Weather]

I think GFS is bullish for both waves considering the brunt of snowfall in both instances will be in daylight. Euro seems more realistic, although it is rather bullish for Friday.

[james1976]

Can anyone post a Euro snow map?

Thanks!

[NEJeremy]

GFS is actually showing a decent severe weather setup for 4/13 for eastern Nebraska and Kansas. CAPE 2-3500 and shear 40-50 kts. Too bad it's 10 days away.....

[Tom]

CPC seeing the pullback out of the colder pattern during the 11th-17th, esp out in the Plains...overall coolness may still hang on for the northern tier and GL's...

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[jaster220]

^^^ I'd be thrilled just to see "N" greys over mby, but not happening 

[Minny_Weather]

Yucky. The sun is out. At least the wind is still howling. 35.4*F.

[westMJim]

Just had some rain and small hail here, rather dark for this time of day temp is now at 34

[Minny_Weather]

GFS continues to be bullish, I'm gonna stick with the Euro for now. Friday looks like it could be a fun day with powdery snow potential.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs just south with heaviest for friday but nam bullseyes omaha. Also, several models have rather scary consistency in regards to sundays system. Im in heaven! Im at 21 here hoping to make it to avg

[hlcater]

System at the end of the Euro run is very impressive. It's been toying with the idea of a big trough in the west during that period.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018040312/240/sfcmslp.conus.png

[NEJeremy]

System at the end of the Euro run is very impressive. It's been toying with the idea of a big trough in the west during that period.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018040312/240/sfcmslp.conus.png

GFS has that big system too for the 13th

[james1976]

GFS also showing a wild cutoff Low for the 15-16th timeframe. What a crazy pattern!

[Minny_Weather]

System at the end of the Euro run is very impressive. It's been toying with the idea of a big trough in the west during that period.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018040312/240/sfcmslp.conus.png

THERE'S Spring.

[james1976]

DMX on the sun-mon system:
Finally...still keeping an eye on yet another potent system into
the upcoming weekend. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all in reasonable
agreement depicting anywhere from 0.25-0.75" of QPF. Thermal
profiles still support a majority of this pcpn falling as
snow...so significant snow accumulations are a possibility. With
this system still being nearly a week away, things can obviously
change so please keep up with later forecasts on this system.
 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Since when was that storm a week out. More like 5

[Minny_Weather]

Amazing model consistency in favor of at least 4" this weekend between the two waves. Still think we'll get under 3" from Friday's wave due to daylight.

[Niko]

In NYC currently. Weather here is drizzly and cold w temps in the 30s. When I arrived at LGA, there was snow on the ground. Patchy snow around. Very impressive for this time of the year and considering, NYC is a warmer climate than Detroit.

[St Paul Storm]

Courtesy of Ryan Maue....the projected low of 5F on Saturday morning in Mpls would be the second coldest April temp on record dating back to 1872. Crazy.

[Minny_Weather]

With high pressure, clear skies, and a slight NW breeze, our original record of 13*F on 4/4 could be in jeopardy tonight. 23.2* right now.

[Minny_Weather]

70% of our nights during the actual Winter weren't even this brutal. 21.0*F. Wind chill 6*F.

[OKwx2k4]

Meanwhile in Oklahoma....

Gonna be a cold night in Hell around these parts. Not weather related but too good to pass up the share.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS stepped towards Euro for Friday-Sunday here. Think it's finally taking daylight into account. Never tracked a snow event this late in the season so I really don't know much about how models handle daylight.

[Tom]

Late week Plains/MW Snow threat....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1779-46-47-plainsmw-spring-snow-system/

[Tom]

Is there light at the end of the tunnel???  Yes, finally, a trend towards warmer (normal) temps as we approach mid next week.  Meantime, recent snows have edged towards decadal highs in terms of North American snow cover.

 

[Tom]

Chitown may "weenie" its way towards seasonal norms as an Alberta clipper may lay down a couple of inches tomorrow.  Sox home opener may be in question.  Opening week for baseball this year has had many games cancelled or postponed due to snow.

 

 

 

Biggest item of concern in the near term is the northwest flow
shortwave progged to affect the area Thursday into Thursday
evening. Hard to believe that we`re watching an Alberta Clipper
for snow potential in April, but that is the case for tomorrow
with a channelized shear vort moving southeast into the region
during the afternoon. Seeing an increasingly concerning signal in
the various models, most of which are depicting a strong low-mid
level frontogenetic circulation developing Thursday. The f-gen
circulation will be aided by strong upper level divergence in the
left exit region of a strengthening upper level jet progged to
nose into the area during the day.

Forecast soundings strong support precip in the form of all snow
with this system with evaporative/dynamic cooling likely to knock
boundary layer temps down enough to support accumulating snow.
There is a wide range in model output wrt where this mdt-hvy f-gen
driven band of precip will set up. Unfortunately, there are models
targeting the IL/WI border region while others favor points south,
even as far south as our far southern CWA. Given the mesoscale
nature of this event, pretty hard to pin down the most likely area
to be impacted at this point. While placement varies, models do
agree that max QPF within the band should exceed 0.25" and
possible over a half inch. Even with low ratios and some of the
snow going to melting, it`s hard to discount the realistic threat
of a band of at least several inches of snow falling Thursday
afternoon and evening somewhere in our CWA.

[westMJim]

Looks like winter here now. There is just under 2" of snow on the ground here this morning and everything is covered in snow except the road. but the grass, roofs and trees all have a winter like snow cover even some snow on the driveways. Still snowing and windy with a temperature of 29 here at my house.

[westMJim]

Chitown may "weenie" its way towards seasonal norms as an Alberta clipper may lay down a couple of inches tomorrow.  Sox home opener may be in question.  Opening week for baseball this year has had many games cancelled or postponed due to snow.

The minor league team I work for opening day is tomorrow and  they play here on Friday as well.  Believe it or not they have played in the past with snow on the ground and in the stands. I do not look forward for the first two games this year. And it does not look all that good for next weeks games on Monday thru Thursday either. 

[Tom]

Tweet from Ryan Maue regarding record cold high potential on Friday as the Polar Vortex makes one last visit this cold season:

 

 

 

Daytime highs on Friday won't get out of the 20s in the Midwest and upper-Plains. That will also set many records for low-maxes. Map shows w/squares where the forecast will threaten an existing record (from long period database > 100 years)

[Tom]

As daylight emerges, the landscape is white and its quite blustery and cold out there this morning with temps in the mid 20's.   The stratus clouds are racing across the sky and it looks like a day you would see in late Oct or early Nov when you get that first real taste of winter.

[St Paul Storm]

9.5” of fresh snow and 10F with a wind chill of -2F. If you had no idea what month it is you’d probably think it was mid January. The roads are an icy mess. They were fine during the storm as temps were in the upper 20s. But they iced over when temps dropped.