April 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

I'll be honest with you, this year the northern tier may have the shortest period between "last flake" of this season vs "first flake" of next season.  There's a chance that the growing season in Canada and northern U.S. will be extremely short this year and could drastically effect commodities across North America.  Something is brewing and I believe it's tied into the solar minimum which is forthcoming.

 

I think we tracked that for SMI back in '13 and it now holds at least the modern day record. 

[westMJim]

  Today is opening day at the local minor league baseball team where I work  and it is going to be a long cold day for me. I have to be there at 3 pm for a 6:35 start time and there are fireworks after the game. Here at my house I still have a good amount of snow on the ground and while the airport only looks like it got down to 23° for a low here at my house it dropped all the way down to 16° At this time it sunny but with lots of clouds to the west and a temperature here of 31°

[jaster220]

..and meanwhile mby is under a winter headline 

 

If it verifies would be the largest in nearly 2 months since my 3.1" way back on 11-Feb

 

[westMJim]

I think we tracked that for SMI back in '13 and it now holds at least the modern day record. 

At Grand Rapids the last snow in 2013 was on April 25th and the first in the fall was on October 23rd as the the last 32 reading in the spring it came on May13th with a low of 29° and the first in the fall came on October 25th with a low of 31°, In 1945 the last 32 day was on June 4th and the first in the fall came on September 30th and in 1946 the last 32 day came on May 13th and the first in the fall was on September 3rd That September 3rd is the record for the earliest 32 day and that June 4th is the latest for a 32 day here at Grand Raids.

[Tom]

I think we tracked that for SMI back in '13 and it now holds at least the modern day record.

As well as parts of IA and N IL iirc....would be something if that transpires.

[Tom]

At Grand Rapids the last snow in 2013 was on April 25th and the first in the fall was on October 23rd as the the last 32 reading in the spring it came on May13th with a low of 29° and the first in the fall came on October 25th with a low of 31°, In 1945 the last 32 day was on June 4th and the first in the fall came on September 30th and in 1946 the last 32 day came on May 13th and the first in the fall was on September 3rd That September 3rd is the record for the earliest 32 day and that June 4th is the latest for a 32 day here at Grand Raids.

#statman...if anyone ever needs a reliable stat, they need you on speed dial.

[jaster220]

#statman...if anyone ever needs a reliable stat, they need you on speed dial.

 

      

[jaster220]

At Grand Rapids the last snow in 2013 was on April 25th and the first in the fall was on October 23rd as the the last 32 reading in the spring it came on May13th with a low of 29° and the first in the fall came on October 25th with a low of 31°, In 1945 the last 32 day was on June 4th and the first in the fall came on September 30th and in 1946 the last 32 day came on May 13th and the first in the fall was on September 3rd That September 3rd is the record for the earliest 32 day and that June 4th is the latest for a 32 day here at Grand Raids.

 

Nice grab. How many days between flakes then in '13?   I know folks in parts of the UP were building snowmen in early June of '45 so that may hold the flake record there?

[westMJim]

Nice grab. How many days between flakes then in '13?   I know folks in parts of the UP were building snowmen in early June of '45 so that may hold the flake record there?

In 2013 the last reported snow fall at Grand Rapids was on April 25th (0.2") and the first in the fall was on October 23 (t)

[St Paul Storm]

Official temp yesterday got down to 8F, making it the 5th coldest temp on record in April since 1873 and the coldest since 1995. My seedlings for the garden are going to remain in the house until late May at this rate.

[bud2380]

GFS weakened considerably in Iowa Sunday, looking much like the Euro.  Still some decent April snows.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040512/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Hawkeye]

12z UK and GEM still taking the best snow from nw to se across Iowa.

[Tom]

12z GFS also brings the summer-like warmth for a lot of us next Friday. Some spots may see snow flakes flying the next day after seeing 70’s/80’s.

[jaster220]

12z GFS also brings the summer-like warmth for a lot of us next Friday. Some spots may see snow flakes flying the next days after seeing 70’s/80’s.

 

  ..bipolar Plains. Does any other place on Earth have such wild swings in conditions??

[jaster220]

In 2013 the last reported snow fall at Grand Rapids was on April 25th (0.2") and the first in the fall was on October 23 (t)

 

Then from 4/26/13 to 10/22/13 we got (153) days "flake-free" and that sounds like a familiar number iirc.  Interestingly, Marshall scored a solid 0.5" on Oct 23rd, thus a pre-cursor that the I-94 corridor was to be ground zero of that epic historic and fantastic winter. 

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS also brings the summer-like warmth for a lot of us next Friday. Some spots may see snow flakes flying the next day after seeing 70’s/80’s.

The 980mb that roars in reminds us that winter lives forever.

[westMJim]

Here is a update on the seasonal snow fall totals several sites around Michigan

Muskegon 100.3” Holland 80.6” Kalamazoo 73.6” Grand Rapids 73.3” Hastings 67.2” Bloomingdale 104.3", Hart 100.4", Scottville 80.7", Augusta 80.1", Fremont 71.1", Charlotte 55.7", Eaton Rapids 53.3", Lansing 51.6" and Grand Ledge 50.6" Detroit 58.7”, Flint 78”, Saginaw 36.8”,  Maple City 145.2", E. Jordan 138.8", Gaylord 131.1", Kalkaska 120.4", Northport 86.9", Alpena 61.2", Houghton Lake 48.0, Tamarack 285.2", Munising 187.0", Herman 168.4", Bergland Dam 156.0", Marquette 142.2" and  Sault Ste. Marie 104.9"

[jaster220]

Here is a update on the seasonal snow fall totals several sites around Michigan

Muskegon 100.3” Holland 80.6” Kalamazoo 73.6” Grand Rapids 73.3” Hastings 67.2” Bloomingdale 104.3", Hart 100.4", Scottville 80.7", Augusta 80.1", Fremont 71.1", Charlotte 55.7", Eaton Rapids 53.3", Lansing 51.6" and Grand Ledge 50.6" Detroit 58.7”, Flint 78”, Saginaw 36.8”,  Maple City 145.2", E. Jordan 138.8", Gaylord 131.1", Kalkaska 120.4", Northport 86.9", Alpena 61.2", Houghton Lake 48.0, Tamarack 285.2", Munising 187.0", Herman 168.4", Bergland Dam 156.0", Marquette 142.2" and  Sault Ste. Marie 104.9"

 

My kids live in Bloomingdale. It's an amazingly snowy place considering how far south it is. Neck-n-neck with far north places like SSM says a ton

[jaster220]

I posted yesterday how every month of the past 2 cold seasons have had nearly identical snow totals for mby except this past Feb and how last April I got 1.2" 

 

Well, per this map and WWA in effect, my ~1 or 2" could be on it's way over night 

 

[BLIZZARD09]

Hey Tom--what about this snow band expected to come thru our area this afternoon?

[bud2380]

canadian

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018040512/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

Hey Tom--what about this snow band expected to come thru our area this afternoon?

stat padding is all this is good for:

 

UPDATE...

1151 AM CDT

 

The main forecast concern continues to center on the increasing

potential for a band of moderate to briefly heavy snow across

portions of the area this afternoon and evening.

 

This band of snow has already set up from just north of DVN

southeastward towards PNT. DVN and MLI reported visibilities under

a mile with this band of snow as it moved through, so these

conditions are likely to accompany this band of snow as it

gradually shifts to the east into this afternoon.

 

HiRes Guidance continues to indicate that this band of snow will

continue to intensify later this afternoon and evening as the left

exit region of a 130+ kt northwesterly upper jet noses into the

area atop a strong band of lower-level frontogenesis. This in

combination with reduced static stability off the surface should

result in at least periods of moderate snow, with periods of

heavier snow reducing the visibilities under a mile. While

questions remain as to how much snow will accumulate on area

roads, it does appear that 1 to 2 inches of snow (isolated amounts

up to 3 also possible) will be a good bet on grassy areas across

much of northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. This may

result in some minor slushy accumulations on elevated road

surfaces. While we do not plan to issue an advisory for this

event, we have issued an SPS to highlight the event.

 

The snow should wind down from west to east later this evening.

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro came in a good bit farther south with the Sunday system, but also weaker.  It's still needs to come farther sw for CR to cash in on the extended snow north of the low track.

[gimmesnow]

Man this is ridiculous, I just want to go in the lake without having to worry my stand up jet ski is going to cold seize from the cold water. I might have to change my username if this keeps up.

 

At least it's a good sign for next winter. I guess the last two springs were really nice to us, I went from snowboarding to jet skiing in a few days. It's going to be almost a month before I make it.

[Snowshoe]

Close to giving up hope of ice off by May 5th in Northern Wi!

 

I'm hearing reports of +24" of ice in Oneida and Vilas counties. Bring your tipups for the opener.

[St Paul Storm]

I'm hearing reports of +24" of ice in Oneida and Vilas counties. Bring your tipups for the opener.

23-24” of ice confirmed here as well. Our lake is 60’ deep in the center. It’s going to take a few straight weeks of good warmth to melt it all. I’m thinking mid May.

[bud2380]

The Euro weakens considerably as it gets to Iowa.  I will be interested to see if the Euro changes course on that or if that ends up being the more accurate solution.  The other piece of this is there is a secondary vort where the snow looks to pivot and then drift southeast.  Right now the Euro has the best precip associated with that from southern Minnesota and into northeast Iowa.  The Canadian was further south with that secondary piece of energy.  

[Minny_Weather]

Weird how this is a "warm" day for April. More like late February. Clear skies, 53.6*F. I believe we get our last cold shot of the season tonight.

[Stacsh]

Part of Long Term AFD per GRR:

 

It seems to me we are in for a significant warm up the second half
of next week. We one more push of cold air early next week before a
major pattern shift midweek. The system on Monday may bring some
snow to the area and that will be followed by one final push of cold
air for Tuesday. Beyond that we will likely have a major spring
storm cross the CONUS and that may bring us severe storms late in
the week depending on how far north the warm front gets. We have a
very real chance of having our first day with highs in the 70s late
next week (with wind and storms).

As for the big warm up the second half of next week, that is
related to the re-adjustment of the upper wave pattern over North
America by the middle of next week.

[NEJeremy]

Man I hope the 12Z Euro can verify for next Friday the 13th. Shows major severe weather potential in Iowa.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/cape-surface/20180413-1800z.html

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/deep-layer-shear/20180413-1800z.html

[Madtown]

28+ on the Manitowish chain

[Stacsh]

Man I hope the 12Z Euro can verify for next Friday the 13th. Shows major severe weather potential in Iowa.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/cape-surface/20180413-1800z.html

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/deep-layer-shear/20180413-1800z.html

 All signs and models are pointing to a major spring storm late next week.  

[Niko]

Some snow is likely for the nyc area if you can believe that by tomorrow nite into sat (1-3"). Currently a windy, w a mostly sunny sky today and temps in the low 40s and lows dropping into the upper 20s to near 30F. Easter Sunday will be a cold one indeed. Cooking a lam outside will need a jacket and a hat, for sure. We are setting up a huge tent w heaters surrounding the area  . Crazy weather!

 

Brw: some piles of snow can be seen around the nyc area in spots.

[Niko]

Meanwhile, I heard that my area will be getting some snow as well (1-3") for the Macomb area, UGH!

 

Where is Spring folks???!!! 

[Tony]

Some snow is likely for the nyc area if you can believe that by tomorrow nite into sat (1-3"). Currently a windy, w a mostly sunny sky today and temps in the low 40s and lows dropping into the upper 20s to near 30F. Easter Sunday will be a cold one indeed. Cooking a lam outside will need a jacket and a hat, for sure. We are setting up a huge tent w heaters surrounding the area . Crazy weather!

I hate to the bearer of bad news but Easter Sunday just passed. You must have slept right through it.

[Niko]

I hate to the bearer of bad news but Easter Sunday just passed. You must have slept right through it.

Obviously, you never heard of Greek Orthodox Easter. Looks like you have been sleeping for over 2000 years. I guess you were awaken today.

[Tony]

Obviously, you never heard of Greek Orthodox Easter. Looks like you have been sleeping for over 2000 years. I guess you were awaken today.

Well then...a happy Greek Orthodox Easter to you

[Madtown]

.....Portillios coming to Madison!....oh yeah cold and snoeflakes today

[jaster220]

Well then...a happy Greek Orthodox Easter to you

Last year the Othodox Easter and Western Easter calendars aligned on 16-April. That was the first time since 1949. Sometimes they are weeks apart! My In-laws are Russian Orthodox and it was nice to celebrate at the same time. Happy Easter Niko..now get back and shovel your snow

[Niko]

Last year the Othodox Easter and Western Easter calendars aligned on 16-April. That was the first time since 1949. Sometimes they are weeks apart! My In-laws are Russian Orthodox and it was nice to celebrate at the same time. Happy Easter Niko..now get back and shovel your snow

Thanks Jaster! It will be a cold one also. Brrrrr. 

 

 

Yup, last year,  Catholic and Orthodox Easter was joined at the same time. Not sure when that will be again. Have to look it up when I get the time.