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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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As we approach the 2nd fastest warming month of the year, our sub forum (except for the southern Plains) is NOT going to feel like Spring but more like Winter.  Nature has decided to throw a wrench into Spring-like wx for the majority of our members.  When will this end???

 

March has been a rather wild ride for much of the nation and forecast models are suggesting another wild open to the month of April.  The latest CFSv2 weeklies show the cold open for early April standards....if you want to believe the LRC, the first 10-15 days of the month should on average stay BN.  I'm hoping for a mid-month temp rally but if the blocking is still holding strong, then expect a battle zone across our sub.  As we get deeper into April, Spring-like warmth will certainly begin to blossom in the southern Plains and eventually win out, but it will in turn turn very wet where the clash of air masses takes shape.

 

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018032500

 

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

Posted Images

CFSv2 trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

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I decided to get a golf membership this year, and the course opens on April 2nd.  Based on the GFS, it probably won't be opening on April 2nd.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032512/222/sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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Guess I should be talking about this here instead of the March thread. I'm not willing to believe in a storm on the 3rd quite yet. A) There's little ensemble support and B ) As far as I know, GFS is the only one showing this. We all know what happens when GFS is the only one showing a storm. Powdery snow in April would be something, though.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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And the Canadian.  Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_40.png

Yup, I want some 70s now. But the first week of April isn't looking so hot. Given I don't want the snow, probably gonna get a 24" storm

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 18.7"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles?

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles?

 

KLNK_2018032512_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Wow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members.

It'll be back. The ensembles look decent.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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It'll be back. The ensembles look decent.

What are you basing this off of? I think it's more likely that more and more ensemble members gradually lose a system for early next week.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...

North Texas snow in April? That'd be a record.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...

 

LOL @ same ole dead zone for ORD and SWMI...and I thought last winter had some stretches of wx h*ll   :lol:  :wacko:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS has now taken next week's storm and changed it to rain. But at least there's a 19" snowstorm @ 276!  :rolleyes:

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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attachicon.gifGEM 2.png

12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS.  

 

Yep, I get 3" vs 1"  :lol:   Prolly still be getting dustings in June at this rate.. :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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60s and 70s all day!!

 

100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D

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100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D

I LOVE THIS WEATHER and I wish we had it every day. I'd be a much happier person. Sunny weather makes me want to write dark poems on this thread.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Sheesh, the Euro weeklies are definitely holding onto to widespread BN temps this entire month and even into the first 10 days of May.  Some warmer periods are mixing in but the general theme is "No Torch" in site.  Head to Cali/SW and FL where  temps are largely AN if you want some spring fever.

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Next 4 weeks per the CFSv2....where were you in the winter???

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

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NWS Hastings morning disco.  Accumulating snow on the Easter Eggs?  

 

..winter is not over yet as Arctic air will plunge south into
the region and it could be followed by accumulating snow at
times...

There is a pool of Arctic air over wrn Canada this am...where
temps are below zero and as cold as -26f. This pool will expand
and eventually unload into the cntrl/ern Continental U.S.. there will be a
few very cold days ahead over the next 2 wks. I think lows in the
teens for 1-3 days and highs in the 20s for 1 day are on The
Table.

Precip: there are 2 main periods of concern as there is potential
for accumulating snow that is not currently reflected in our fcst
due to model disagreement/uncertainty. They are centered on Thu
and sun. Model/ensemble qpfs vary greatly...but we cont to see
some qpfs that are very aggressive. Most are not...but believe
it's important to communicate what we are seeing. There are not
big/deep lows that will be crossing the rgn which is a large
reason for the uncertainty...but sufficient forcing exists for
some light-moderate snowfall amts (1-2 or as much as 4-6") for
parts of the County Warning Area.

Wed night thru Thu night needs to be watched as the upr trof and
the lfq of an upr-lvl jet streak move thru. The forcing aloft will
be there and this situation looks like the more potent of the two.
Sun has an fgen-band look to it.

Suggest closely monitoring future fcsts as more details come into
focus.

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Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers.

No joke!  Pretty remarkable to see those temps being advertised not only by the GFS but the Euro as well.  Not a nice looking forecast for Easter this year!

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If we're not gonna have any severe thunderstorms in April may as well have snow chances!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It looks like we are in for a cold Easter weekend so I thought I would look to see what some of the records are for both March 31st and April 1st

At Grand Rapids on March 31st the average H/L is 51/32 the record high is 78° set in 2010 the coldest maximum is a cold 20° set in 1923 the record low is also in 1920 at a bone chilling +6° the most snow fall is 3.7” in 1951. The last time there was more than a trace of snow was in 1991 (0.4”) the last time there was one inch or more was in 1975 with 2”

For April 1st the average H/L is 52/32 the record high is 82 in 2010 the recorded coldest maximum is 29 in 1911. The record low is 13 in 1954 the most snow fall is 4.8” in 1972 The last time more than a trace fell was in 2002 when 0.9” fell there was a trace in 2016, 2013, 2009 and 2007.  The last time more than 1” fell was in 1993 when 2.8” fell and there was a reported 1” on the ground.

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Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 18.7"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already.

I'd send you all of those high risk days you could stand if you wanted them. Lol. I'll pass. Severe wx just gets old when you're used to it I guess.

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I’ll pass on the high risk as well. Seems like big hail and destructive winds are the norm in eastern ne anymore. I’m tired of insurance claims and constant work on my home, property and vehicles. Give me a good lightning show and some rumbles of thunder in the distance and I’m happy.

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Yeah I'll also pass on the tennis ball hail we seem to get at least 3 times each Spring

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NWS Hastings now says snow for Central and Southwest portions of Nebraska this weekend with several inches falling.  Boy they have flip flopped this week.  I don't buy any scenario yet.  Usually they wait until very close to an event, but they have been talking about this system since Sunday.

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JMA Weeklies pretty much agreeing with the CFSv2 on any noteable warm periods this month.  Head to the west/SW....or of course, the south looks pretty nice, esp the beaches of FL.

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I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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