April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Are you calling Tim a square?

 

Fitting.

[Jesse]

Fitting.

Maybe he’s complimenting you for being in shape.

[TT-SEA]

For weather geeks... the Minneapolis AFD is a good read tonight.   

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

Here is the opening statement...

 

The watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the rest

of southern Minnesota and most of west central Wisconsin. The

watch continues north of the warning area.

 

Confidence continues to increase severe winter weather will

develop beginning Friday night and last into Saturday evening.

 

 

And just to mess with those poor people even more... another snowstorm follows the weekend blizzard in the middle of next week.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Jared is going to be enjoying some April snow as well over the next 10 days.    And the totals from Nebraska to Minnesota are just insanity.  Normally snow in mid to late April can cause lots of tree damage because they are leafing out... but that is not a problem this year.   Its looks like January there in the Midwest.  

 

 

 

 

 

And side note... there is a 3rd massive snowstorm in southern Minnesota on days 9 and 10 per the 00Z ECMWF.   This is just the day 9-10 total.   

Beyond record smashing for April if the 00Z ECMWF verifies through 4/22. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light rain and 39.

[Deweydog]

IT'S OFFICIAL!!!

 

For the first time in 50 months, the PeeDeeOh slipped into negative territory in March.  A robust -.05.  

[Front Ranger]

I think today might be drier than expected for much of Puget sound region Seattle north. Strong Olympic shadow and sharp cutoff of the rain offshore.

 

Afternoon especially could be "nice".

[TT-SEA]

I think today might be drier than expected for much of Puget sound region Seattle north. Strong Olympic shadow and sharp cutoff of the rain offshore.

 

Afternoon especially could be "nice".

 

 

Yes... definitely looks beautiful on the 12Z NAM this afternoon.    Gorgeous!

 

[Front Ranger]

We'll see. Doesn't look like the total washout that's been advertised to me.

[MossMan]

Yes... definitely looks beautiful on the 12Z NAM this afternoon. Gorgeous!

 

Looks dry for me!

[Front Ranger]

Jared is going to be enjoying some April snow as well over the next 10 days.    And the totals from Nebraska to Minnesota are just insanity.  Normally snow in mid to late April can cause lots of tree damage because they are leafing out... but that is not a problem this year.   Its looks like January there in the Midwest.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe DEN can finally manage to get past their record low seasonal snowfall. They're still somehow an inch short.

[TT-SEA]

We'll see. Doesn't look like the total washout that's been advertised to me.

 

Dude... every single time we are stuck in a perpetual warm front pattern there will some areas that are protected for most of the event.    

 

Side note... I said it will be a washout here and that is 100% guaranteed.    It will likely not stop raining here until Sunday if we are lucky and the trough actually digs in the ECMWF has been showing.   I still think it will ultimately not dig as aggressively.      

[TT-SEA]

Looks dry for me!

 

Yes... you might be in the lucky area today.

[TT-SEA]

I am well aware that there is almost always some 'nice' areas during our large rain events.   

 

All of my comments have been related to my area and what is normal in my area for April.   

[MossMan]

Yes... you might be in the lucky area today.

If so it will be the first time in a long time!

[ShawniganLake]

Have received 1/2” of rain here so far this morning.

[Front Ranger]

I am well aware that there is almost always some 'nice' areas during our large rain events.

 

All of my comments have been related to my area and what is normal in my area for April.

I was never commenting to you or specifically for your little area. All I said was today might ended up drier than expected for some areas, specifically in shadowed areas. And this afternoon may be drier a lot of places.

 

When you look at the GFS precip maps, for example, the expectation would be widespread washout pretty much the entire day from BLI to SLE. But there are often times that's not the case, and today looks like one of those days.

[TT-SEA]

I was never commenting to you or specifically for your little area. All I said was today might ended up drier than expected for some areas, specifically in shadowed areas. And this afternoon may be drier a lot of places.

 

When you look at the GFS precip maps, for example, the expectation would be widespread washout pretty much the entire day from BLI to SLE. But there are often times that's not the case, and today looks like one of those days.

Well... I used the term washout so I assume you were referring to that. And it applies here of course. No individual system is that strange... it's just the persistence which has been unusual.

[Front Ranger]

Well... I used the term washout so I assume you were referring to that. And it applies here of course. No individual system is that strange... it's just the persistence which has been unusual.

 

What I'm hearing is that you'll take what you can get.

[TT-SEA]

I was never commenting to you or specifically for your little area.

 

Also not just raining in my little area. 

 

[TT-SEA]

What I'm hearing is that you'll take what you can get.

 

Indeed.    Fingers crossed that Sunday is just cloudy and cold instead of also pouring rain.    Exciting! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The CPC/IRI just updated their ENSO probability forecast. Their thinking a transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May and continuing until the fall when chances are we head into an El Nino, albeit a weak one in winter.

 

[Jesse]

The CPC/IRI just updated their ENSO probability forecast. Their thinking a transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May and continuing until the fall when chances are we head into an El Nino, albeit a weak one in winter.

 

 

You are thinking this Niño will bring our snowiest winter on record right?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You are thinking this Niño will bring our snowiest winter on record right?

I'm just reporting what the CPC/IRI forecast is. There is more to it than that. I got all year to make my official winter forecast. I haven't made a summer one yet.

[Jesse]

I'm just reporting what the CPC/IRI forecast is. There is more to it than that. I got all year to make my official winter forecast. I haven't made a summer one yet.

Winter starts in just 7.5 months! 1.5 to summer. Better get on it!

[TT-SEA]

Winter starts in just 7.5 months! 1.5 to summer. Better get on it!

 

Hottest summer ever recorded... coldest winter ever recorded.

 

Done!  

[Jesse]

Hottest summer ever recorded... coldest winter ever recorded.

 

Done!

Hard for me to even imagine the piles of scientific research that must have gone into this.

[MossMan]

Windy and dry! I will take it! Wish it was 30 degrees warmer though.

[Jesse]

Even I will admit the weather today is basically garbage. The mild lows and inability to clear out and get any northerly flow between systems kind of sucks. We need sharper ridging offshore again.

 

Looks like we could go into a better pattern for that next week. A little more variable.

[Jesse]

We are definitely overdue for a convective episode of some sort as well.

[Phil]

IT'S OFFICIAL!!!

 

For the first time in 50 months, the PeeDeeOh slipped into negative territory in March. A robust -.05.

CALLED IT!!!

[Jesse]

CALLED IT!!!

Matt making the first substantive weather-related post in weeks if not months, or the PDO dropping?

[Phil]

[Phil]

Matt making the first substantive weather-related post in weeks if not months, or the PDO dropping?

Haha, the latter in this case. I’m pretty sure I made the call in one of my late night rants/tangents in early March.

[Front Ranger]

Also not just raining in my little area. 

 

 

And I didn't say it wouldn't rain today...

[Front Ranger]

Hottest summer ever recorded... coldest winter ever recorded.

 

Done!  

 

This is exactly how it works.

 

- Deweydog

[TT-SEA]

This is exactly how it works.

 

- Deweydog

 

I was guessing Frontal Snowsquall's forecast. 

[Front Ranger]

I was guessing Frontal Snowsquall's forecast.

It fits Dewey's theory to a t.

[Jesse]

It fits Dewey's theory to a t.

 

People's theories about cause and effect and dueisms seem to exhibit a strong correlation to their preferences. Might need to look into this.

 

Of course I know I am guilty of it.