Tom Posted July 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 This, I gotta see, which would fit the idea of a highly amplified and unusual summer pattern. Target date is set for 7/22 to see if a direct discharge of summer time arctic cold, cross polar flow, to engulf the nation. While departures may be well BN, avg temps this time of year are still well into the low/mid 80's for most of us except for the deeper south. Check out the vectors off today's 12z GEFS illustrating an almost winter-like pattern setting up for the last week of July. Amazing if it comes into fruition. Folks, this may just be the beginning stages of where the atmosphere is heading as we head closer to Autumn. A major amplification of the North American 500mb pattern is going to set up shop to close out the month. Of note, all of this is happening while maintaining a +AO which clearly is suggesting that the -EPO, along with minimal Greenland Blocking, to be the driving force behind this set up Monster NE PAC Ridge... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Joe Bastardi map from his Twitter Page. This map looks nice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Joe Bastardi map from his Twitter Page. This map looks nice.20EECA94-6579-412A-AA12-942F508D665A.jpeg70's and low 80's with low DP's...give me that all day for the rest of summer! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 70's and low 80's with low DP's...give me that all day for the rest of summer!Sounds great Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Lincoln NE with a current heat index of 104 with a 71 dew. Yikes. I am at a 96 heat index and a 68 dew in Central Nebraska. Better get a light jacket. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Another day another nickel. 94.8*F and yucky. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Another day another nickel. 94.8*F and yucky.Had to check your currents as I saw Eastern Nebraska was in a heat advisory. Those nickels are sure adding up this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Marshall had a high Tues of 88F but the HI was running 2-3 deg's lower...poor Plains peeps are suffrin tho! HI here hasn't been all that bad, thankfully. Its just too dry and hot. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Sunny, beautiful afternoon w temps in the low 80s. Humidity is at a comfortable level. DP levels are in the mid 50s. HI is at 81. Same as the temp. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Had to check your currents as I saw Eastern Nebraska was in a heat advisory. Those nickels are sure adding up this summer.Heat advisory expanded to tomorrow. Tomorrow will be the worst day for a while I think. I genuinely do believe we saw our hottest readings for the Summer in June. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 I like what I'm seeing over the next 10 days as we settle into a cooler and wetter pattern. This weekend, nature will provide a nice "drink" for most of us across the Plains/MW. Its been rather dry across the area and I can see some lawns already turning a bit brown. More importantly, as a deeper trough develops, it will suppress the pattern and shift away from the "old" one we have been seeing over and over again this summer. Folks who have missed out on the rains, will welcome them. 00z GEFS showing increased chances of noteable precip across MO/KS where the drought will be eaten away. It is my opinion, as we head into the later cycles of the LRC, during late summer, the LRC and the cyclical nature of the pattern, is still useful but when "other" influencing factors arise, I need to make adjustments. Hense, the reasoning why I think the S MW/Plains get wetter as we finish off summer and places near the GL's/MW get drier later next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Last night, was yet another example of WGN hyping the hot/humid weather. During last nights wx segment, Skilling's 7-day forecast showed low 90's Thu-Fri, mid/upper 90's Sat/Sun 95F/98F...why they would even suggest those temps are beyond me. Since then, temps have been lowered to near 90F which makes much more sense. Who's ready to turn off the A/C and give it a break finally??? Gosh, while we did enjoy a couple days of low DP's, the humidity is back this morning. While the sticky airmass is getting pretty old (I don't know how those who live in the Plains survive an entire summer), I think we all are looking forward towards next week as nearly all the models are in agreement that a Canadian airmass will invade the region by the start of next workweek! Breaking News: https://www.theguardian.com/news/live/2018/jul/10/thai-cave-rescue-third-mission-planned-to-bring-out-remaining-boys-and-coach-live-updates I'm thrilled to hear the coach and all the boys lives were saved. What a wonderful ending to this story.They probably swung too far in the cooler direction. Tomorrow in particular looks fairly hot with mid 90s not out of the question at ORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 They probably swung too far in the cooler direction. Tomorrow in particular looks fairly hot with mid 90s not out of the question at ORD.Ya, they've been going back and forth with temps but like today, debris clouds in the area may keep temps from reaching the 90's, esp on Sat and Sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 An interesting system has been showing up on the models for Thu/Fri of next week that has an autumn-like look to it, tracking from the Plains towards the GL's. Trough goes neg tilt and buckles as downstream blocking near Greenland blossoms. You don't see this to often, esp in mid July. Let's see if it holds on to this idea over the next couple days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 92 with heat index of 98 and a 68 dew at 2 pm. Forecast shows nothing this warm again in the foreseeable future. Gosh I hope so, the Central Air Conditioner could sure use a break. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 95.1°F with a DP of 70°F making for a HI of 103°F. Another nickel of a day. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 An interesting system has been showing up on the models for Thu/Fri of next week that has an autumn-like look to it, tracking from the Plains towards the GL's. Trough goes neg tilt and buckles as downstream blocking near Greenland blossoms. You don't see this to often, esp in mid July. Let's see if it holds on to this idea over the next couple days.We've seen a couple this summer. Seems a bit odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 After digesting the JMA Weeklies and the pattern going forward, I think most of the central CONUS may have temp departures end up near average or even slightly below. Some places near the GL's/MW may have some steeper departures depending how strong the troughs end up becoming. Quite a balanced summer....hot start and like a "flip of the switch", right at the middle part of met summer, the cooler pattern hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 98/67/102It's hot, and I love it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 93F temp with dew point of 77 producing a HI of 108. Furnace blaster. Dew points pooling ahead of the line of storming forming to the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 90s are returning for 3 days starting tomorrow. UGH! Hopefully some wet weather by Monday, next week. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Debris clouds from the storms up north have kept temps in the upper 80's (87F) at ORD. Tomorrow will be a different story, on the flip side, the weekend around here will prob feature more clouds than sun, esp with the frontal boundary over head. Doubt we hit the 90's Sat/Sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Temp down to 69 and torrential rain at the moment. I have never seen it rain so hard. Monsoon action. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 War of the Worlds type lightning out there. Insane storm although not warned in my county. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Daylight is becoming noticeably less. We've had to have lost quite a few mins by now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 It's been hot and dry here for the past 11 days. Things have been drying up around here, even after a very wet June. Looking forward to rain chances this weekend and Monday, some models are showing 1-2 inch totals across the midwest. Only have had 0.4 inches of rain here in Cedar Rapids during the month of July so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Congrats to my friends up north. By Sunday, most of you will be past your hottest average day of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Daylight is becoming noticeably less. We've had to have lost quite a few mins by now?Indeed, I was thinking about that last night. In the Chicago area, we peaked with 15 hours and 14 min of daylight on June 22nd. Yesterday, marked the 1st day we ended up with less than 15 hours of daylight (14:59). Wer're losing about 1 min/day on average but starts increasing to about 2 min/day next week. In Aug, we start losing close to 3 min/ day and that continues into Oct. Some subtle signs that Autumn is approaching. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Happy Friday the 13th! Today's date has significant numerology meaning behind it. Make it a phenomenal day. Meantime, the forecast next week is looking amazing. Those who need the rains in the S MW will get hit and the cool down will be welcomed by many. Nice 7-day right there... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 The Aztec Indians in the desert SW must have sent some impactful prayers to the Gods, bc nature is responding with a real fast start to the Monsoon. Plenty more rain coming. Although, with the heavy rains in the mountains, comes flash flooding and one of the most popular spots in AZ, Havasupai Falls, 100's were evacuated the other day. https://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/arizona/2018/07/12/havasupai-falls-flash-flooding-forces-tourist-evacuations/779156002/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 With 0.02" of rain last night the string of rain free days at Grand Rapids has ended at 11. But it is still very dry as going back to June 28th Grand Rapids has only had 0.14" of rain and since June 10th only 0.98" has fallen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Mid 70s already. Its uncomfortable this morning. I see im in a Flash Flood Watch this pm-night. Looking forward to some t-storm action. Next weeks looks much cooler! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Mid 70s already. Its uncomfortable this morning. I see im in a Flash Flood Watch this pm-night. Looking forward to some t-storm action. Next weeks looks much cooler!Your area and most of IA has been a magnet for storm action this summer. Except for the southern and eastern tip of the state, IA has done real well, but too much of a good thing in some places is bad for crops. Looking forward to some storm action this weekend as I can see some cracks in the soil around my yard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Temps near 90 today thru Sun. Averaging above average 90 degree days. Typically, 11 days of 90F is on average per Summer season. So far, pushing 14 and counting. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Dry weather continues w potential pop-up t'stms. Better shot coming by Monday as a LP area approaches the area. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 With 0.02" of rain last night the string of rain free days at Grand Rapids has ended at 11. But it is still very dry as going back to June 28th Grand Rapids has only had 0.14" of rain and since June 10th only 0.98" has fallen. Another ground dampening for mby!! http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif This Obs is almost laugh-worthy and very telling of the crappy dryness that has become the defacto wx pattern here: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 I was a bit surprised to see this considering I think storms will be scattered in nature. But whatever floats their boat (pun intended). Flood WatchNational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE353 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT....Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon andcontinue overnight along a slow-moving cold front drifting towardInterstate 80. The thunderstorms will be slow-moving as well, andwhen combined with abundant moisture in the atmosphere, heavyrainfall of 1 to 3 inches or more could occur, leading to flashflooding.IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ044-045-050>053-065>068-078-131700-/O.NEW.KOAX.FF.A.0006.180714T0000Z-180714T1500Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Including the cities of Missouri Valley, Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap,Harlan, Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak, Sidney, Hamburg,Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Fremont, Blair,David City, Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion,La Vista, Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City,Crete, and Wilber353 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAYMORNING...The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest Iowa and Nebraska,including the following areas, in southwest Iowa, Fremont,Harrison, Mills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie, and Shelby.In Nebraska, Butler, Cass, Dodge, Douglas, Lancaster, Otoe,Saline, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, and Washington.* From this evening through Saturday morning* Slow-moving thunderstorms combined with abundant atmosphericmoisture could cause very heavy rainfall tonight. Althoughaverage rainfall amounts will likely total an inch or two,pockets of heavier rainfall of 3 inches or more could occur,with could lead to flash flooding.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that leadto flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take actionshould Flash Flood Warnings be issued. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Have had over 1/2” of rain from a storm at 2:30 AM and rainfall in the last 3 hours. It is 70 degrees with light rain continuing to fall. What a pleasant change. 12 z GFS keeps the wet pattern going through the rest of July. Nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 It's a hot, summery day here in Chi...surprised to see the DP is only at 58F which is making the 91F temp quite bearable. Who knows, but today may be Chicago's last time it hits 90F+ for the summer. Lucky Friday the 13th! Edit: Just checked the surrounding areas and they are reporting DP's in the low 60's. ORD's reading must be off or something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 It's a hot, summery day here in Chi...surprised to see the DP is only at 58F which is making the 91F temp quite bearable. Who knows, but today may be Chicago's last time it hits 90F+ for the summer. Lucky Friday the 13th! Edit: Just checked the surrounding areas and they are reporting DP's in the low 60's. ORD's reading must be off or something. Just peeked, Marshall's DP is 57F and here at Benton Harbor it's 60F so not that much different tbh 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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