Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
With today's underperformance, KSEA exactly doubles its April 2024 rainfall total, adding another 0.43" to the bucket and filling it gently to an even 0.86"... Pending some stray stratoform rainbands over the next day.
Tomorrow will clear earlier than modeled over the Sound with a mostly-dissipated occlusion front overhead and weakly negative low level lapse rates. Any residual stratus should be digested mighty well by that steamin' late April sun, mixing skies into hazy sunshine before noon. I'm going for a gutsy 64/47 day at KSEA. Might even get a bit muggy, some CAM's have dewpoints pushing fifty in the favored sheltered areas, despite what I claim to be too much modeled cloudcover.
For my area we are under the slight for today. We will have an initial round of decaying storms this morning near sunrise, with CAMs showing some supercells popping off in the afternoon. There is little agreement on exactly where or when, other than that it will probably happen near or east of Tulsa. So I don't actually expect a lot of activity here today.
It looks like a better bet of dry line convection on Saturday afternoon, and this happens in a jacked out parameter space. Still a little early to try to guess exactly what this ends up looking like but the ceiling is high and I expect a moderate to come out on tomorrows outlook for Saturday. Saturday into Sunday either over or just east of me the initially discrete storms merge into a line of heavy rainfall so that is also in the potential mix.
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