PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yesterday 00z versus today 00z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any Oregon maps? 

[JW8]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yesterday 00z versus today 00z

Higher temps or less precip?

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any Oregon maps? 

 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

At step back again on the Euro 

Wouldn't go that far. Plenty of Precip, the problem is temps.

However, dewpoints remain below freezing so we'll see who wins out 

[umadbro]

[Christensen87]

Welp. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any Oregon maps? 

[Kolk1604]

GEFS to the rescue like always 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

This could be a big run for anyone with a little elevation! Foothill and @TT-SEAspecial

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Thanks brotha. This looks great!

[jcmcgaffey]

22 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Dew Points remain below freezing the majority of the time. Your missing that 

I’m sure there will be lots of snow in the air but is definitely borderline for accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Don’t get me wrong it will fun to track and watch but looks to be many nights of borderline snow that will lead to both surprises and lots of frustrating “if only it were a few degrees colder “ nights

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Higher temps or less precip?

Higher temps. Euro has been running warm, we're fine.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I’m sure there will be lots of snow in the air but is definitely borderline for accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Don’t get me wrong it will fun to track and watch but looks to be many nights of borderline snow that will lead to both surprises and lots of frustrating “if only it were a few degrees colder “ nights

Anything over 4-500ft will be in good shape. 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Higher temps. Euro has been running warm, we're fine.

Euro warmer bias playing into the totals? Hope so

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This dovetails nicely with the 12z ECMWF.  Pretty ridiculous amounts of snow being shown for various places in the lowlands.

I really enjoy how that eastern system almost neatly matchee into the Idaho panhandle. Even though I'm not there, very pleasing to the eyes.

[Kolk1604]

Putting my money on a 10:1 Ratio 

 

[snow_wizard]

So many snow chances on the ECMWF it's ridiculous.  The thing I really like is it shows hard freezes Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights with precip around the area pretty consistently.

Even if the Saturday night thing doesn't work out great for some places there will be many more chances.  The Saturday night event could have some problems for parts of Pierce and South King Counties.  Just not sure yet.

[Requiem]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Putting my money on a 10:1 Ratio 

 

This is fantastic! 

[WeatherGeek2022]

sound better get buried like portland

 

I mean what's an event if we aren't both even

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I’m sure there will be lots of snow in the air but is definitely borderline for accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Don’t get me wrong it will fun to track and watch but looks to be many nights of borderline snow that will lead to both surprises and lots of frustrating “if only it were a few degrees colder “ nights

The nights are plenty cold on the ECMWF early next week.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Oregon looks good 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

sound better get buried like portland

 

I mean what's an event if we aren't both even

I'm sure you would be happy with a few inches.

[Kolk1604]

10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I’m sure there will be lots of snow in the air but is definitely borderline for accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Don’t get me wrong it will fun to track and watch but looks to be many nights of borderline snow that will lead to both surprises and lots of frustrating “if only it were a few degrees colder “ nights

It's be interesting for sure. There are times with temps in the low 40s, but dew points are around 30.

[Weiner Warrior]

@Kolk1604Thanks for posting the maps!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oregon looks good 

Most of WA too.  Time to start focusing on us again.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

It's be interesting for sure. There are times with temps in the low 40s, but dew points are around 30.

Don't let low 40s bother you during the day this time of year.  Nights are cold still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So many snow chances on the ECMWF it's ridiculous.  The thing I really like is it shows hard freezes Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights with precip around the area pretty consistently.

Even if the Saturday night thing doesn't work out great for some places there will be many more chances.  The Saturday night event could have some problems for parts of Pierce and South King Counties.  Just not sure yet.

There will be good cooling tomorrow night before the high clouds roll in, Saturday should stay chilly with the cloud cover. 35-43 or so but with low dew points. Most places should be in the 32-36 range when precip arrives. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This is OT but I’m observing some of the craziest thermal contrasts I’ve ever seen here. We decoupled and dropped from 80°F to 54°F fairly quick after sunset, but winds aloft are increasing and starting to mix back down to the surface.

The sensor at the SW end of the property is currently reading 71°F, while the one on the NE end (which is only ~200ft away and 50ft lower in elevation) is 56°F!!

I walked between the two and it’s crazy, hot spots, cold spots, etc. You can feel how much warmer the puffs of wind are compared to the antecedent air. This has happened before but never to this extent.

sorry lol, just can’t help geeking out over this stuff.

That is the stuff I live for.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There will be good cooling tomorrow night before the high clouds roll in, Saturday should stay chilly with the cloud cover. 35-43 or so but with low dew points. Most places should be in the 32-36 range when precip arrives. 

I'm just concerned about some shadowing or down sloping in this area.  I do remember the ECMWF handled a situation earlier in the winter pretty badly though, and I ended up with snow when the ECMWF showed mostly rain.

At any rate even if that falls through it shows snow here Sunday night.

[RCola]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oregon looks good 

Big ouch for Seattle. Was hoping the trend would be the other direction this evening.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is the stuff I live for.

Is that what's happening here? Wanna go check for us? 

[snow_wizard]

Very cold trough dropping down at the end of the ECMWF run.  Most likely everyone will see snow before the cold pattern is over.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah. Day 9'er

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow 11in for South Hill this run. Totals are creeping up in the south sound 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z EPS - Better for Washington, Insane for Oregon 

 

I honestly never know how I'm going to do and I actually enjoy it even if it means having days where I get nothing. The screw zone on the longer range always extends just to the edge of my county on the west with the north and south better due to higher elevation. East is weird for me due to the the summit but in some occasions Lewiston or Clarkston have done better (but I usually beat them). They had three or four inches in Nov when I had a very small amount. I was jealous but happy for them too.

If this were to be true I'd be thrilled.

If I can squeeze fifteen inches out I'll call my winter a B. Otherwise it is a C but won't downgrade since it's all extra credit season. I have 4.5 inches to go before I get there. But again, that's the fun of it. Just like Oakland hills getting snow today...super.cool.

[Cloud]

Today is part of the record books… sorta, it’s a rarity. 
 

 

[Cloud]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow 11in for South Hill this run. Totals are creeping up in the south sound 

Oh look! The donut hole right over me… like it’s been all season  

[MossMan]

Currently 22 degrees. 

[bainbridgekid]

Already down to 22 here and steadily dropping. Good shot at teens by morning which is pretty rare here since I don’t do well for radiational cooling.