August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Would not matter if July and August were cooler and wetter than normal.

If the rain in April had created a mudflow that devastated the North Bend suburbs and you were forced to relocate to coastal North Carolina the dry July and August here would not matter.

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yUvxhGRUR3s

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o0JqC2UDpoE

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0pyA6jAM3_I

[Front Ranger]

Jared wanted me to remind you that one run doesn't mean it's going to happen. And that models are sometimes wrong.

Yessir.

[Phil]

D10 EPS looks Jesse-tastic. Also haven’t seen a Baffin vortex pattern on 8/20 in forever.

 

Curious to see if this actually verifies.

 

[Phil]

Re: the solar minimum. Now 41 out of the last 44 days have been spotless. The solar wind has come way down since this time last year.

 

The high latitudes could look quite a bit different this winter, should history repeat itself.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Re: the solar minimum. Now 41 out of the last 44 days have been spotless. The solar wind has come way down since this time last year.

 

The high latitudes could look quite a bit different this winter, should history repeat itself.

Block city?

[Jesse]

D10 EPS looks Jesse-tastic. Also haven’t seen a Baffin vortex pattern on 8/20 in forever.

 

Curious to see if this actually verifies.

 

Man those 582dm heights look sweeeet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This August is going to blow away July for mean temp...

[TT-SEA]

All the smoke is going to be shoved way east by tomorrow morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

If the rain in April had created a mudflow that devastated the North Bend suburbs and you were forced to relocate to coastal North Carolina the dry July and August here would not matter.

 

Really weak... not clever at all.    You are losing it.   

 

And my original point stands... the wettest rainy season in history can easily be wiped out by a hot and dry July and August.   Likewise a dry rainy season can be mitigated by a cool and wet July and August.

 

So it does not really matter what happens the rest of the year.    July and August decide everything.  

[Jesse]

Really weak... not clever at all. You are losing it.

 

And my original point stands... the wettest rainy season in history can easily be wiped out by a hot and dry July and August. Likewise a dry rainy season can be mitigated by a cool and wet July and August.

 

So it does not really matter what happens the rest of the year. July and August decide everything.

This is super silly.

[Kayla]

All the smoke is going to be shoved way east by tomorrow morning...

 

Not east enough... Been clear here up until this morning.

[TT-SEA]

This is super silly.

But true... just saw it last year here. Wettest rainy season ever and then tree-stressing heat and dry weather with endless smoke by August. The record wet rainy season did not help.

 

And it we had a repeat of July 1993 this year then the dry weather in May and June would not matter. There would be no fires or smoke and the trees would not be stressed.

[Phil]

Block city?

Maybe...

[Jesse]

But true... just saw it last year here. Wettest rainy season ever and then tree-stressing heat and dry weather with endless smoke by August. The record wet rainy season did not help.

 

And it we had a repeat of July 1993 this year then the dry weather in May and June would not matter. There would be no fires or smoke and the trees would not be stressed.

You are oversimplifying things just a bit. But I don’t need to tell you that.

[TT-SEA]

Smoke is much thicker and lower this morning... the worst it has been here since last August.   Tomorrow will literally be a breath of fresh air.    I am really looking forward to it.  

 

[WeatherArchive]

Block city?

I think you mean Block Town.

Pac Mania Block Town

[Jesse]

PDX holding at 71...

[Tyler Mode]

Nice to see the line of smoke clearing on the satellite photos.  Can't wait to have blue sky again.  It wasn't nearly as bad this year (yet) at the low levels. 

 

Temp is running +5 right now compared to yesterday.  Currently 72. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I can see the back line of the smoke!!! Central Valley almost done with it!

[BLI snowman]

Fall is just a few months away on the 12z.

[Farmboy]

Fall is just a few months away on the 12z.

Enjoy summer while it lasts, it's going, and will soon be gone. Feeling decidedly fall-ish this morning on the peninsula.

[MossMan]

Smoke! Nothing like last year but most as it’s been this season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Couldn't believe how dry it was on the Olympic Peninsula. 

 

The Hood Canal region looked like it was going to spontaneously combust!

[TT-SEA]

Couldn't believe how dry it was on the Olympic Peninsula. 

 

The Hood Canal region looked like it was going to spontaneously combust!

 

 

The Hood Canal region has been dry this year.

 

We had unusually persistent flow from the west and northwest (as opposed to the usual southwest) in the first half of the year which shadows that area while drenching the Cascades and adjacent foothills and also produces frequent convergence zones.

 

[Jesse]

Fall is just a few months away on the 12z.

PDX could make a run at 40 90+ days this year. We’re dew!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm sure the Asians would appreciate that too.

Usually we prefer not to see any typhoons at all. They do more harm than good for us here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It doesn’t always work that way, though.

 

And the mere idea that poleward recurving WPAC hurricanes *cause* western ridges and eastern troughs is flawed..those recurves occur during WPAC/warm pool forcing/ventilation regimes, which would favor that type of pattern anyway. The cyclones can amplify it when they get caught up into the extratropical streamflow via diabatic heat release/WAFs, but the cyclones aren’t the cause of the pattern. Rather, the same boundary conditions causing the cyclones to recurve is what often causes the ridge west/trough east pattern.

Yeah, I already know that. I believe I pointed it out when I talked about the typhoon rule on here before.

 

I know it's not 100% accurate but it has a good track record IMHO. The rule is just a quick way for people to see quickly into the future of the possible downstream effect the typhoon could cause without getting into all the technical stuff.

[Phil]

Usually we prefer not to see any typhoons at all. They do more harm than good for us here.

They do the climate system a lot of good, though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I can see the back line of the smoke!!! Central Valley almost done with it!

I haven't been able to enjoy this heatwave due to all the smoke. I'm happy it will be gone for the time being.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

They do the climate system a lot of good, though.

Yeah, I read before they remove pollution from the air and bring needed rain to some parts of the world. Mother nature always has a purpose for everything in the grand scheme of things.

[Farmboy]

Couldn't believe how dry it was on the Olympic Peninsula.

 

The Hood Canal region looked like it was going to spontaneously combust!

Indeed it is dry. There's a fire burning in the Hamma Hamma area right now. I hope the rain puts it out as that is one of my fave outdoor playgrounds.

 

Oh, and it won't be long until the misdeeds of Mueller and co. are exposed...

[TT-SEA]

You watch the smoke clearing from SW to NE across western OR on the satellite and ODOT cams.   

 

Back edge is also rapidly approaching the Seattle area now from the southwest.  

[Phil]

Yeah, I read before they remove pollution from the air and bring needed rain to some parts of the world. Mother nature always has a purpose for everything in the grand scheme of things.

Yep. And they ventilate truckloads of heat poleward from the tropics. Without tropical cyclones humans probably wouldn’t even exist (since we’d likely still be in the throes of an ice age).

 

The poles are in a perpetual energy deficit. They require a mechanical transport of heat to stay even remotely warm enough to melt ice. Inhibit that circulation of heat in any way, shape, or form, and you have a problem.

[Jesse]

Sort of a rudderless pattern on the Euro. Probably a lot of 85-93 type days next week.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of a rudderless pattern on the Euro. Probably a lot of 85-93 type days next week.

 

93, 98, 96, 89, 91 for Monday-Friday for PDX per 12Z ECMWF.

[Jesse]

93, 98, 96, 89, 91 for Monday-Friday for PDX per 12Z ECMWF.

Seems way overdone but that has been the theme this summer.

[Jbolin]

Modest instability for tomorrow afternoon