August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s a fluky statistic. It hasn’t been a hot summer here...1949 was a blast furnace.

It's not fluky when you go 44 straight days with highs at or above 80 and your next best streak was 29 close to 70 years ago. Albany posted a +4.7 departure for July. Parts of the Northeast have also been in a drought.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20180807/20180807_Northeast_text.png

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wall of elevated smoke moving south...

 

Yuck

[Jesse]

Head out to the Snoqualmie Valley. Not too much dead grass out here.

 

Took this pic getting off I-90 in North Bend last night... grass is still green and growing out here.

 

 

No improvement in the smoke situation through Tuesday at least.

What on earth prompted you to stop and take that picture?

[TT-SEA]

What on earth prompted you to stop and take that picture?

Did not stop to take pic... we were in line on the off ramp. Just came back from Everett and noticed how much greener it was out here along the freeway. Was going to post it yesterday with some cloud and rain pics.

[TT-SEA]

Took this pic in a downpour in south Everett yesterday afternoon as well...

 

 

And this one driving west on I-90 near Fall City on the way to Everett. Sky looked so pretty... we sure messed that up today.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What on earth prompted you to stop and take that picture?

 

That is a type of grass that typically grows in marshy areas.

[TT-SEA]

That is a type of grass that typically grows in marshy areas.

Not marshy there... all of North Bend and Snoqualmie has green grass. The valley floor here holds water well. The grass is much drier along the roads up here.

 

The area in that pic is usually mowed very short before winter. Its on a small hill too... actually slopes upward to the right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Smoke rolled in during the late afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of talk about PDX record for 90 degree days, but should also mention Salem is likely going to smash the record they set in 2015 as well. Notable as Salem's period of record is about 45 years longer than PDX. 

 

Also Salem is now at 61 days without measurable rain. Their all-time record is 79 days without rain. I see no indication of measurable rain in the next 10-15 days at least, so they could get very close if not break it. 

 

Salem has only had measurable precip on 11 days out of the past 117. 

 

Since April 18th Salem has only had 1.03" of rain. So 1 inch of rain in 4 months. It would not be out of the question for them to get into mid-October before receiving significant rainfall...Though certainly possible it could arrive during the latter half of September.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The line of smoke now stretches all the way to Newfoundland. Looks like the upper level low yesterday pulled a lot of smoke around it from the north side. It's pretty clear on the colour satellite and stretches well out to see. Today it's been pivoting back onshore.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Current Air Quality Index for the PNW. Right now it looks like we are fine west of the Cascades but there's unhealthy air east of the Cascades in SE BC/NE WA.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Current Air Quality Index for the PNW. Right now it looks like we are fine west of the Cascades but there's unhealthy air east of the Cascades in SE BC/NE WA.

 

It’s very thick in central BC. Clinton has reported less than 1 mile visibility all day.

[TT-SEA]

 Smoke map for tomorrow afternoon from the 00Z run... actually better than today.  

 

Seems unfair that CA has almost no smoke now.  

 

[MossMan]

Chilly evening...already in the 50’s!

[Dave]

 

Also Salem is now at 61 days without measurable rain. Their all-time record is 79 days without rain. I see no indication of measurable rain in the next 10-15 days at least, so they could get very close if not break it. 

 

 

Eugene has gone 62 straight days without rain. Unwatered grass and unkempt fields are tinderboxes. Seems like there is a small fire somewhere almost daily.

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly evening...already in the 50’s!

What’s your averages there this time of year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It’s very thick in central BC. Clinton has reported less than 1 mile visibility all day.

Arghhh, hopefully that thick smoke doesn't spread west over the Cascades.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Troughy September here we come!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Average for tomorrow is 78/47 here. We had a low of 47 this morning. The only low so far this month that has been average or below... High only made it to 74. 

 

Record high for tomorrow is 98 set in 2002.

 

Record low 34 in 1951.

[TT-SEA]

Chilly evening...already in the 50’s!

 

Hard to believe... but your area is STILL more than 120% of normal precip for the year.    My area is still above our very wet normal as well.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Troughy September here we come!

 

 

Would be nice.

[MossMan]

Hard to believe... but your area is STILL more than 120% of normal precip for the year. My area is still above our very wet normal as well.

 

No dire drought around my area. Things have stayed quite green even with the warmth of the last few weeks.

[MossMan]

Chilly and wet for our morning walk on my property. Sneak peek of the approaching change of seasons.

[Jesse]

Ensembles spicing it up a little.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles spicing it up a little.

 

At this point probably best to take a wait and see approach. Operational gets PDX to 35 90+ days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Generally by mid-August we see people throwing around a lot of analogs and unrealistic expectations for the coming winter. Not so much this year. As if last years Nina fail and the endless torching has dampened expectations as the ground outside turns to dust. Perhaps we can end the drought with our tears?

[MossMan]

Generally by mid-August we see people throwing around a lot of analogs and unrealistic expectations for the coming winter. Not so much this year. As if last years Nina fail and the endless torching has dampened expectations as the ground outside turns to dust. Perhaps we can end the drought with our tears?

As long as we can stay weak Nino or neutral I have a feeling we will see a very active winter. Jim will be posting a lot!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As long as we can stay weak Nino or neutral I have a feeling we will see a very active winter. Jim will be posting a lot!

Really hope so. Last year was incredibly boring.

[ShawniganLake]

Generally by mid-August we see people throwing around a lot of analogs and unrealistic expectations for the coming winter. Not so much this year. As if last years Nina fail and the endless torching has dampened expectations as the ground outside turns to dust. Perhaps we can end the drought with our tears?

Probably your typical front loaded winter with spring arriving 2nd or 3rd week of January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably your typical front loaded winter with spring arriving 2nd or 3rd week of January.

 

January 2017 was good, so we'll have another good one in 5-10 years.

[BLI snowman]

Probably your typical front loaded winter with spring arriving 2nd or 3rd week of January.

 

I don't consider much of late January to be winter here. Winter is November 20-January 20 with an occasional cameo appearance sometime in February.

[WeatherArchive]

Really hope so. Last year was incredibly boring.

But it was suppose to eclipse the 2008 snow period!   It was to be the best eveeeeeeeeeeeer! So many posters here got eggs in their eyes.  I saw the writing in the wall that October.

[WeatherArchive]

January 2017 was good, so we'll have another good one in 5-10 years.

So you call a couple flurry events good? Wow standards sure have changed around here! LOL.   I think you mean December 2016. At least I hope you do.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice "cool" morning at 50 degrees.

I see the gradients have switched to offshore through the gorge.

I also notice more and more readings in Alaska in the 20s and 30s

[MossMan]

Chilly 51 here and cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

Chilly 51 here and cloudy.

Clouds or smoke?

 

Smoke above valley fog here. Smoke is way lower than yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

Smoke doesn’t look quite as thick as yesterday here.

[Phil]

It's not fluky when you go 44 straight days with highs at or above 80 and your next best streak was 29 close to 70 years ago. Albany posted a +4.7 departure for July. Parts of the Northeast have also been in a drought.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20180807/20180807_Northeast_text.png

Cherry picking one station out of several hundred is not how you decipher large scale pattern analogs. The weather pattern this summer has not resembled 1949, nor has the solar cycle or ENSO/tropical forcing state.

 

For instance, my city was very dry and hot in 1949. This year we’ve had 46” of rain since May 1st. Huge difference.

[Phil]

Took this pic in a downpour in south Everett yesterday afternoon as well...

 

 

And this one driving west on I-90 near Fall City on the way to Everett. Sky looked so pretty... we sure messed that up today.

 

Everett must be your regional garden of eden or something.

 

I remember it was much “greener” there too compared to West Seattle. The grass was all brown at the latter location but still relatively lush and green further north for whatever reason.

 

And it never got hot in Everett when I was there this year or last year.

[Phil]

Generally by mid-August we see people throwing around a lot of analogs and unrealistic expectations for the coming winter. Not so much this year. As if last years Nina fail and the endless torching has dampened expectations as the ground outside turns to dust. Perhaps we can end the drought with our tears?

IMO, there’s actually a good chance at some legit action for you guys during Nov/Dec this year, as opposed to last year’s ridging during that timeframe.

 

Something like 90% of post-mature -QBO years w/ low solar and east-shifted warm pools feature frontloaded winters in the West. The ones that don’t deliver early usually don’t deliver at all, but those have all occurred during high solar years, and we’re pretty far removed from that now.