November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

It’s early November. Despite the favorable pattern a lot of moving pieces need to align. We know how this game works. Getting overly excited for a snowstorm in early November more times than not will lead to disappointment.

[Money]

I am just curious what is the average snowfall in Ontario?

Why

[Niko]

Where are/did you see that?

 

 

If I looked out far enough, ofc I would have some. Did you mean this coming week, or when exactly? NWS local only mentioning a chance of mixed RN/SN later this coming week. No hype via GRR - guarantee u that amigo

TWC, apparently was high on something.     It all disappeared from my forecast now, once the 4pm discussion rolled on through, although, cold temps remain, w highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s and scattered snowshowers towards the end of next week.

[jaster220]

It’s early November. Despite the favorable pattern a lot of moving pieces need to align. We know how this game works. Getting overly excited for a snowstorm in early November more times than not will lead to disappointment.

 

THIS.

 

And your climo is far better at this point. Way S and E of Minny down here, it requires a much more rare alignment. Almost all the better Nov storms happen in the 2nd half of the month.

[jaster220]

TWC, apparently was high on something.     It all disappeared from my forecast now, once the 4pm discussion rolled on through, although, cold temps remain, w highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s and scattered snowshowers towards the end of next week.

 

Looks like TWC was suckered by the model tricks and "rushed to publish" but retraction was just as sudden

[jcwxguy]

Twc is calling 3-5 inches here (Gretna nebraska) on Thursday lol

[Esquimalt]

Twc is calling 3-5 inches here (Gretna nebraska) on Thursday lol

Lol just checked.  Not even "snow"--just snow showers haha. 

[Madtown]

[Niko]

Looks like TWC was suckered by the model tricks and "rushed to publish" but retraction was just as sudden

[Esquimalt]

The intense snowfall on the 11/12th is back for Ok...

[Esquimalt]

A pretty awesome 00Z FV3 GFS for essentially everyone.  7-10 inch accumulation in many places from Nebraska to Quebec.  

[jcwxguy]

Not Nebraska if we are looking at the same model, shows nothing here through 240hrs on tropical tidbits

[Esquimalt]

Not Nebraska if we are looking at the same model, shows nothing here through 240hrs on tropical tidbits

sorry got kansas and nebraska mixed up.  Thats the problem being Canadian 

[GDR]

A pretty awesome 00Z FV3 GFS for essentially everyone. 7-10 inch accumulation in many places from Nebraska to Quebec.

wow that looks awesome!!

[GDR]

And just like that the 06z says what snow!

[Tom]

00z Euro still showing a potent snow maker for early November across KS/MO and into the lower GL's later this week...the snow band sorta fizzles as it makes its way into the GL's.

 

 

[Tom]

Today's clipper type system is rather robust on radar when looking at how much of the nation is being effected by it on radar.  Almost a trowel-like feature has developed overnight as it is beginning to strengthen and go somewhat neg tilt later today.  When this thing cycles back through in the winter, I could see this being a pretty large winter storm.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/sfcmap.gif

[Tom]

So, we have the UKIE/EURO on board with a central Plains/GL's cutter for the late week system.  In fact, both Ukie/Euro paint a significant amount of snow across the entire state of KS/N MO.  Even though both models have lesser amounts towards the GL's, there is still room for development in future runs as I see the models trying to phase this system across the GL's/Ontario region.  This, by the way, is likely going to be part of the LRC's long term longwave trough position.

 

Here was the 00z Ukie...

 

@LNKWx, if today's runs come back on the GFS/GGEM, it might be time to fire up a thread.  00z EPS signal for snow continues to highlight the Plains (NE/KS and into N MO/S IA) as the epicenter and lesser amounts towards the MW/GL's.  Let's see what shakes out today.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Light rain and a few wet snowflakes falling this morning. Currently 35F. Gonna be a wet couple of days around here. I need the rain to help the mulched up leaves in the lawn start to break down.

[westMJim]

Looking out the window the leaves are still falling at a steady clip here in my area. Some of the trees are bare but there are still a lot of leaves yet to fall on some of the trees. It should be noted that there are a lot of Oak trees in my area and they tend to drop their leaves late.  But there are several types of Maples that also have many leaves on them and I have a Red Norway Maple in the front yard that just does not want to give up it leaves. In many years I just let the wind take care of its leaves. (and for the most part the wind will do that) 

Light rain with falling leaves here with a temperature of 40°

[BrianJK]

It’s early November. Despite the favorable pattern a lot of moving pieces need to align. We know how this game works. Getting overly excited for a snowstorm in early November more times than not will lead to disappointment.

Bingo

[Minny_Weather]

Very disheartening for here to see Euro go South. 4 days out so obviously it could change but that still sucks to see.

[jaster220]

00z Euro still showing a potent snow maker for early November across KS/MO and into the lower GL's later this week...the snow band sorta fizzles as it makes its way into the GL's.

 

Not too surprised tbh on the bolded. Looking back on past November snows around my region reveals that 3-4" events happen often enough, with a few going bigly scattered across the past century. Most better storms were in the 2nd half in recent times ('89, '04, '15), while the era when we got colder earlier in autumn produced the notable storms in the 1st half ('32, '51, '66).

 

Certainly if we do indeed score a significant snowfall this week, it will stand out in this era (post 1985) of warm Novembers.

[St Paul Storm]

Radar starting to light up to the south. Some monster flakes falling now. Temps are above 0C so it will be tough to accumulate but it looks nice. I noticed this morning a few bald eagles have returned for the winter. That’s a sure sign the seasons are about to flip for good.

[jaster220]

So, we have the UKIE/EURO on board with a central Plains/GL's cutter for the late week system.  In fact, both Ukie/Euro paint a significant amount of snow across the entire state of KS/N MO.  Even though both models have lesser amounts towards the GL's, there is still room for development in future runs as I see the models trying to phase this system across the GL's/Ontario region.  This, by the way, is likely going to be part of the LRC's long term longwave trough position.

 

Here was the 00z Ukie...

 

@LNKWx, if today's runs come back on the GFS/GGEM, it might be time to fire up a thread.  00z EPS signal for snow continues to highlight the Plains (NE/KS and into N MO/S IA) as the epicenter and lesser amounts towards the MW/GL's.  Let's see what shakes out today.

 

Nice. I'm rebuilding my wx site faves this autumn on a new laptop. Where is the UKmet shown on a free site again?

[Niko]

Partly sunny and chilly w temps at 40F.

[Hawkeye]

Nice. I'm rebuilding my wx site faves this autumn on a new laptop. Where is the UKmet shown on a free site again?

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/michigan/precipitation-total-3h-in/20181104-1500z.html

[jaster220]

And just like that the 06z says what snow!

 

6z V3 still has the storm. Even gives OH more than SMI. Not understanding your post. 

 

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/michigan/precipitation-total-3h-in/20181104-1500z.html

 

Thanks Hawkeye!

[Niko]

6z V3 still has the storm. Even gives OH more than SMI. Not understanding your post. 

 

 

 

Thanks Hawkeye!

How much for SMI?!

[Niko]

Later next week, it gets mighty cold and I am sure for a lot of posters on here as well. My highs remain in the 30s for a good amount of days and lows in the 20s. BRRR!!! Way BN.

[bud2380]

GFS just seems to get weaker with the Thursday system with each passing run.  Not much of an event at this point on the GFS.  

[jaster220]

How much for SMI?!

 

1-3 inches from this range is the best I'm seeing.

[jaster220]

Per Euro at 12am Fri, there could be snow falling at Tom's place and in mby overnight. Not that it won't change by then, but it's the first legit painting of snow imho. Change-over actually attempts to happen by 9pm here in Marshall which would mean most of the rather modest qpf could be frozen vs liquid.

 

 

 

Oh, and this looks 13-14 ish, eh?

 

[bud2380]

GFS has been showing a clipper next Saturday coming through Iowa for a couple runs now.  Current timing would have light accumulations falling during Iowa's game with Northwestern.  I haven't been to a game with accumulating snow falling yet, so that would be cool to see.  I've seen flurries and we had a snowstorm end just hours prior to a game in 2015.  

[Niko]

1-3 inches from this range is the best I'm seeing.

This outta put you in the holiday spirit.  Thanks amigo!

[bud2380]

Saturday clipper

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018110412/168/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Esquimalt]

Per Euro at 12am Fri, there could be snow falling at Tom's place and in mby overnight. Not that it won't change by then, but it's the first legit painting of snow imho. Change-over actually attempts to happen by 9pm here in Marshall which would mean most of the rather modest qpf could be frozen vs liquid.

 

Euro wx 12am 09Nov.JPG

 

 

Oh, and this looks 13-14 ish, eh?

 

20181103 d6-d10 CONUS Temps.gif

It's also possible that it's over-delaying the entry of the cold air--from what the GFS shows temperatures will be very marginal with the Friday event--in my area between 34 and 37...so I think there is a good chance many get more than what the Euro is suggesting.

[jaster220]

It's also possible that it's over-delaying the entry of the cold air--from what the GFS shows temperatures will be very marginal with the Friday event--in my area between 34 and 37...so I think there is a good chance many get more than what the Euro is suggesting.

 

Same with the EC at onset, which in the protected Mitt isn't unreasonable tbh at this time of year. Evap cooling will usually kick in during the heavier precip with rain and/or drizzle on either side. Temps as shown fall off thru the day Friday into the mid-20's (brr). This isn't that deep of a system so the cold won't be rushing in like you get with a true bomb storm. This would be just a nice modest beginning to the snow season as currently depicted.

[bud2380]

Canadian has no system at all on Thursday.  In fact it shows a clipper moving into the upper midwest Thursday night.  So, lots to be figured out yet.  If the Euro takes a big swing and a miss on this storm, that will be concerning for future systems.  It was the first one to show a major snow storm for this coming Tuesday and has since majorly backed off, so not a great start to the winter tracking season for the Euro if it whiffs on Thursday's potential system as well.  

[jaster220]

Canadian has no system at all on Thursday.  In fact it shows a clipper moving into the upper midwest Thursday night.  So, lots to be figured out yet.  If the Euro takes a big swing and a miss on this storm, that will be concerning for future systems.  It was the first one to show a major snow storm for this coming Tuesday and has since majorly backed off, so not a great start to the winter tracking season for the Euro if it whiffs on Thursday's potential system as well.  

 

Good points, but I think the issue the Euro is having is that it's leaning a little too aggressive with the thermal profiles and/or phasing of the branches. They kinda go hand-in-hand tho since the N wave piece delivers the cold in this shoulder season. Should be less of an issue once we're in true winter. The GFS in contrast is leaning a little too warm with it's thermal profiles and thus you get what NebWx posted with the Oct snowstorm where the GFS didn't have snow portrayed until basically game-time. Again, both will be less of an issue in DJFM as both should be plenty cold to reflect p-type close enough unless yby sits on the mix line, lol