CentralNebWeather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 This is from the 0Z GFS. Signs of change? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Its a chilly, wet morning outside w temps in the 40s. Rain has finally ended. Although, it will remain cloudy and misty for the rest of the day. Much colder air arrives late next week. My highs not getting outta the 30s w snowshowers around. Lows dipping down into the 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Its a chilly, wet morning outside w temps in the 40s. Rain has finally ended. Although, it will remain cloudy and misty for the rest of the day. Much colder air arrives late next week. My highs not getting outta the 30s w snowshowers around. Lows dipping down into the 20s.The forecasters don’t seem to be biting it thou. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Relax bud, you will feel the effects, its the Euro having problems keeping troughs in the west to long. We will all feel the cold next week and I think you may see some more snow along an arctic frontal boundary. Dare I say, powder in early November???One of the models, I think GFS, has been advertising a clipper system making its way down here in the mid range. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 The forecasters don’t seem to be biting it thou.Its a week away Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Relax bud, you will feel the effects, its the Euro having problems keeping troughs in the west to long. We will all feel the cold next week and I think you may see some more snow along an arctic frontal boundary. Dare I say, powder in early November???GFS has been consistently showing a lot of widespread cold after the system moves out next week. We will all be feeling that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Currently at 44F w cloudy skies here in SEMI. Leaves are almost down. Definitely in the peak zone and nearing past peak. Soon all trees will be bare. I'd say about 55% are bare already. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 I don't know about other areas but here in the Grand Rapids, MI area while the trees changed late I think the color this fall is some of the best it has been in many years. Some sun with making that good color come out even better the current temperature here is 48° 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Interesting that WPC likes SMI for a "mix" on Friday. Local office not biting ofc 20181031 WPC d3 map for Fri Nov02.gif We actually did score some random "unknown precip type" overnight, and watching the radar loop looks like a nice blob of snow south of mby towards Coldwater Currently at 44F w cloudy skies here in SEMI. Leaves are almost down. Definitely in the peak zone and nearing past peak. Soon all trees will be bare. I'd say about 55% are bare already. Do you know how much rain fell in Macomb? Looks like the cut-off was extreme across SMI. BC reported .31", Marshall .4" but here in Jackson (I took a new position with a firm here) the airport recorded .84" qpf! which would likely have meant at least a solid double-digit snow fall based on 12:1 ratio. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 The 06Z FV3 GFS was a snow lovers dream in the Toronto/Ottawa area. Two days of what appears to be lake effect snow. Michigan gets hit too as well as Penn and Ohio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 We actually did score some random "unknown precip type" overnight, and watching the radar loop looks like a nice blob of snow south of mby towards Coldwater Do you know how much rain fell in Macomb? Looks like the cut-off was extreme across SMI. BC reported .31", Marshall .4" but here in Jackson (I took a new position with a firm here) the airport recorded .84" qpf! which would likely have meant at least a solid double-digit snow fall based on 12:1 ratio. Ova an 1". http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Precipitation/cad.gif If you go back on page 3 on this thread, lower part, towards the end, you will see that I posted that this could have been easily a 12"+. Hopefully, this is a sign to come w "Big Dogs" IMBY. IMHO, I already like the way storms are progressing, in terms of trackwise. Inundates our areas. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 I think prime areas for heavy snow this Winter will be Eastern Gl's region on eastward, due to storm movement coming from SW due NE, clobbering SEMI. We will see. JS will play a major roll in terms of which way the trough takes position. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 The Euro is showing a quick transition from the cold to warmer air. What did the EPS say last night? Furthermore, it is showing a 980 mb low passing north-east by lake superior with a ton of cold air wrapped around it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Two models this morning have a snow event and very cold air in about a week. The euro has 6" of snow and a low temp of 6 here. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Two models this morning have a snow event and very cold air in about a week. The euro has 6" of snow and a low temp of 6 here.Wtf where do u live? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Here is the Euro snow qpf map. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 the new GFS as well on board. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018110212/204/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 From DVN regarding this system. Late in the week, the third, negatively tilted trough is forecast tomove across the area. There are differences in solutions at thistime, but this system with a much cooler thermal profile could beour first chance for real snow with some strong wind. That said,expect models to change a thermal profiles to change. One thing isfor sure, we have entered an active late Fall pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 GFS is insane. Showing suppression in early-mid November. Thankfully it's a week out so plenty of time to correct itself North. Sorry OKwx, I hope you get screwed for my sake. Euro is also showing a bomb for KC next week. I hate to root for KC, but I'd like to see them hit 3" for once so if they get bullseyed on this one then yay I guess. Plenty of time for that to move North as well though. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 sneak attack snow system here tomorrow night. Rain changing to snow, maybe some accums on grassy areas. Time for one more round of leaf wars tomorrow afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Took an even bigger look at Euro. ******* Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Took an even bigger look at Euro. f***** Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time.Yeah, but it’s showing a quick rebound to warmer temperatures. I much prefer the GFS solution that keeps the cold around much longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Yeah, but it’s showing a quick rebound to warmer temperatures. I much prefer the GFS solution that keeps the cold around much longer.I'm not seeing that. Temps well below normal all the way out to the end of the run for me. Looks like milder air may come our way shortly after, but that would mean near normal temps versus a blowtorch like we saw after the cold last November. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Took an even bigger look at Euro. f***** Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time.My son and I are coming to Lincoln for the game next Saturday. Winter weather gear for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 The 11th is starting to look very very interesting as of right now. Nice trend. Suppression was the theme the last go round. Here's hoping for the first flash of an Arklatex repeat. If that is the case, deepening in future runs would be expected. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 GFS is insane. Showing suppression in early-mid November. Thankfully it's a week out so plenty of time to correct itself North. Sorry OKwx, I hope you get screwed for my sake. Euro is also showing a bomb for KC next week. I hate to root for KC, but I'd like to see them hit 3" for once so if they get bullseyed on this one then yay I guess. Plenty of time for that to move North as well though.I missed this post somehow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Whew what a snowfall event for ontario on the 13th being depicted on the 18Z old GFS. Michigan and Indiana also appear to be in the fun. But in Ontario, the low stalls and swirls around! Incredible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 D%MN! Can't keep up with this stuff popping with every model run. Tom's gonna be right..a Novemba to rememba!! Perhaps not seen in a long long time 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Whew what a snowfall event for ontario on the 13th being depicted on the 18Z. Michigan and Indiana also appear to be in the fun. But in Ontario, the low stalls and swirls around! Incredible. Model?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Model??18Z old GFS..sorry in my excitement I forgot to type that out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 Meanwhile, the 18Z FV3 GFS shows a crippling storm for the great lakes/ontario. It would appear that snowfall amounts in excess of 10 inches are possible with this one. Check it out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 (edited) Meanwhile, the 18Z FV3 GFS shows a crippling storm for the great lakes/ontario. It would appear that snowfall amounts in excess of 10 inches are possible with this one. Check it out! I just had to roll this loop Four systems firing off basically like a volley...boom...boom...boom Don't know if I've ever even seen this modeled before tbh? GIF won't load?? Edited November 3, 2018 by jaster220 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 I just had to roll this loop Four systems firing off basically like a volley...boom...boom...boom Don't know if I've ever even seen this modeled before tbh? GIF won't load??If those returns shown for the north shores of Lake Ontario come true it would be historic imo. Just crazy stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 I hope it snows the leaves off my trees!! November looking pretty exciting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 Lets get things rockin and rolling. By late next week, it is looking stormy and colder. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 PER NOAA:A second low pressure system will bring additional precipitationchances late Thursday into Friday. Too much uncertainty regardingtemperature to advertise precipitation type with high confidence,however, at this time forecasted lows in the upper 20s to lower 30swould be cold enough to support snow for northern counties andperhaps more rain/snow across the northern Detroit area. Still plenty of time to iron this one out. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 I'm going to be in South Dakota on the 10th and 11th. Looks to be nice and chilly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 I'm going to be in South Dakota on the 10th and 11th. Looks to be nice and chilly! Was 45F and partly sunny after work this evening and felt pretty nice actually. Considering we had mid-80's just a few weeks ago it's surprising how quickly one can get adjusted. Looks like another major adjustment is right around the corner. Gotta remember to air-up your vehicle tires as the temps get suddenly colder this month. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 Currently at 41F w cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 0z gfs a little bit more north with the system next week Solid 3-5 for Iowa through northern IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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