November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

We have to get a weak reload in after mid-month with some blocking NE. If we do that, 1976 is a great call. The next few days are REALLY important.

Indeed, still plenty of things to iron out going forward but I bet it will be eye opening to check back by mid month where we have been.

[Esquimalt]

Five days out and we're in the bullseye on Euro. What could possibly go wrong?

 

06Z GFS is the exact opposite of what needs to happen here. Temps are way milder and any precip from either system has shifted way far South and East. Let's hope it was cuckoo for cocoa puffs otherwise....

I personally loved the 06Z.  Two significant ontario snow events in the 8th to 15th period lol. 

[Niko]

@Jaster...

 

I bet you have snow in your forecast???!!!

[Money]

I personally loved the 06Z. Two significant ontario snow events in the 8th to 15th period lol.

Haha

[Hoosier]

The Euro is about as far north as the late week storm can go imo. It is a bit slower than the other models. If it were to slow down even more than the 00z Euro, then it could actually run the risk of eventually getting sheared out by the northern stream.

[bud2380]

Gfs is south into Missouri and Kansas this run. Canadian the same.

[St Paul Storm]

The shiny new GFS upgrade says ‘what late week storm?’

[CentralNebWeather]

Hoping for snow next week and the Huskers lead Ohio State at the horseshoe in the 3rd quarter.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro still has the snow-producing wave late in the week.

[Grizzcoat]

12z Euro still has the snow-producing wave late in the week.

It sure does. Pretty much holds serve from 00Z and none of this flip/flop nonsense shown by the GFS.

[gabel23]

It sure does. Pretty much holds serve from 00Z and none of this flip/flop nonsense shown by the GFS.

If anything it has increased snow totals a bit! 

[bud2380]

Euro shows the storm weakening as it heads east Thursday. Heaviest bands are in SW Iowa, SE NE, and KS and NW MO. Looks like still possibly a few inches in eastern Iowa on this run but 6”+ in those heavier bands. It’ll be fun to watch regardless. Reminds me a bit of the 11/20/15 storm that brought several inches to much of Iowa.

[bud2380]

Here was the forecast for the 11/20/15 storm. That was fun.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

My local forecast now says 3-5” on Wednesday night and 1-3” on Thursday. Will be fun to see If this verifies or not in the next 4 days

[Hawkeye]

Euro shows the storm weakening as it heads east Thursday. Heaviest bands are in SW Iowa, SE NE, and KS and NW MO. Looks like still possibly a few inches in eastern Iowa on this run but 6”+ in those heavier bands. It’ll be fun to watch regardless. Reminds me a bit of the 11/20/15 storm that brought several inches to much of Iowa.

 

The timing is not in eastern Iowa's favor.  The precip arrives late afternoon after the temperature has risen well into the 30s.

[gabel23]

My local forecast now says 3-5” on Wednesday night and 1-3” on Thursday. Will be fun to see If this verifies or not in the next 4 days

Where did you are that?

[CentralNebWeather]

Holdrege. Forecast was on weather.com app

[james1976]

Veteran's Day is my bday. Maybe I will have snow OTG. Would be a nice gift!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings talking potential winter storm next week on their forecast discussion just now. They talked about how much more potent and colder that the euro is compared to gfs. Still time to track but there is some hope of a storm developing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecasted high next Friday is 24 degrees, low 16. Whoa.

[GDR]

What’s the weather in Ontario looking like towards the end of next week?

[snowstorm83]

What’s the weather in Ontario looking like towards the end of next week?

Awful

[Minny_Weather]

Euro has trended towards GFS in terms of timing. I am worried about heights recovering in time to support a more Northerly track thru here.

 

If 18Z GFS shows anyone with >6" I'm gonna pull the trigger on a thread.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Money]

18z gfs looks pretty bleh for a lot of people

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'm not starting a thread. That was a piece of run. 

[Minny_Weather]

18Z GFS replaced a potent system with a 1030mb high and a bit of clipper snow for KS. Usually it's more gradual than that. GFS has been bad for the past month or two so I'm not putting all my emotions into it. It didn't show any snow falling for the October system until snow actually started falling.

[Esquimalt]

18Z GFS replaced a potent system with a 1030mb high and a bit of clipper snow for KS. Usually it's more gradual than that. GFS has been bad for the past month or two so I'm not putting all my emotions into it. It didn't show any snow falling for the October system until snow actually started falling.

Some decent cold on this run though...also a nice snow event where I am drops about 4 inches with tons of lingering lake effect

[St Paul Storm]

Winter weather advisories for the northeast part of the MPX area in WI. Looking like less than 1” here overnight.

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z GFS replaced a potent system with a 1030mb high and a bit of clipper snow for KS. Usually it's more gradual than that. GFS has been bad for the past month or two so I'm not putting all my emotions into it. It didn't show any snow falling for the October system until snow actually started falling.

I say wait until tomorrow evening or Monday and see if changes on if you fire up a thread or just punt.

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z FV3 GFS takes away even further precipitation from that Oklahoma/Nebraska/Kansas event. It is now restricted to Nebraska and Kansas.

[Madtown]

Man give me to ight I to tomorrow in 45 days and I'd be a happy camper. 1.5" liquid

[jaster220]

 

BTW, this question is for those older posters on here that can remember the late 70's.  Was this a similar pattern that evolved in November back then??

 

Tom, I don't think even an adult could've followed a "pattern" per se back then unless they were a Met or in Meteorology field somehow. Not sure you realize how much more data is available 40 yrs later. If I were just to go off of memory alone, I would say this November is shaping up to be cold like '76 but potentially much more snowy. '77 was a bit warm with snows hitting later in the month and then mostly NMI not really in SMI.

 

Edit: Using data for KJXN as an example for SMI (mid-point across The Mitt) I see that while 11/76 was consistently colder than 11/77, so far we're starting out thru d3 colder than '76 did, at least for highs if not lows. Snow fell in both Nov's but all in the last week. '76 featured only 1" for the month, and '77 scored 3" so it wouldn't take much to best both of 'em in that dept. Even looked at 11/78 with it's 4" again in the final week of the month. The biggies appear to have been 11/66 with it's 13.5" total (9" depth on the 3rd!), and 11/51 with 9.5" total, again with the most during the first week of the month. So, I feel pretty good about my call that I could see the most impressive Nov of my (adult) lifetime since I was only 2 during Nov '66 and recollect zilcho, lol

[Esquimalt]

Tom, I don't think even an adult could've followed a "pattern" per se back then unless they were a Met or in Meteorology field somehow. Not sure you realize how much more data is available 40 yrs later. If I were just to go off of memory alone, I would say this November is shaping up to be cold like '76 but potentially much more snowy. '77 was a bit warm with snows hitting later in the month and then mostly NMI not really in SMI.

What do you think are the chances for one major snowfall in the next two weeks in Michigan/south Ontario/Penn?

[Minny_Weather]

I say wait until tomorrow evening or Monday and see if changes on if you fire up a thread or just punt.

Yeah I typically wait until I know something will happen somewhere. There is no certainty at all on that.

 

OAX isn't buying it at all and they are basically already punting it.

[Money]

What do you think are the chances for one major snowfall in the next two weeks in Michigan/south Ontario/Penn?

Every time you say Ontario I’m gonna take a shot

[jaster220]

What do you think are the chances for one major snowfall in the next two weeks in Michigan/south Ontario/Penn?

 

Vegas odds are 3:1 against. Which, actually, is the best they've been for any November I can recall

 

(Ontario's massive N to S tho. I'm presuming you meant S Ontario?)

[jaster220]

Every time you say Ontario I’m gonna take a shot

 

:lol:

[jaster220]

Currently 39F w mostly cloudy skies.

 

My forecast looks crazy down the road. By late next week, It is showing snow w accumulations every other day. My highs are showing 30-35F and lows in the low 20s. WHOA!

 

Where are/did you see that?

 

@Jaster...

 

I bet you have snow in your forecast???!!!

 

If I looked out far enough, ofc I would have some. Did you mean this coming week, or when exactly? NWS local only mentioning a chance of mixed RN/SN later this coming week. No hype via GRR - guarantee u that amigo

[GDR]

I am just curious what is the average snowfall in Ontario?