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November 2018 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

In case anyones wondering, IT FINALLY SNOWED!!!!

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

I posted in the winter thread but today I am thankful for each of you. You all enrich my life.   Happy Thanksgiving!!

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Euro has a strong system even earlier than GFS. (just after Election Day). For the sake of simpliciity, I just did 240 HR as there really is no other systems that would affect these "fantasy" totals.

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

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Yup. You would think this time of the year it could trend farther north because suppression typically doesn’t happen this early

It could trend north but I think it's probably going to be limited because of the storm earlier in the week. Heights don't have a long time to rebound. This is the type of pattern progression you'd want to see for a shot at snow unusually far south.

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Money Proficient

Money

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It could trend north but I think it's probably going to be limited because of the storm earlier in the week. Heights don't have a long time to rebound. This is the type of pattern progression you'd want to see for a shot at snow unusually far south.

Probably depends on when the storm develops and when the first low gets out of the way. Looks like euro is a bit slower developing the system and cuts it more north

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

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Probably depends on when the storm develops and when the first low gets out of the way. Looks like euro is a bit slower developing the system and cuts it more north

Yeah, you want slower if you're north. Not too slow though because then the northern stream could end up squashing it.

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Esquimalt Explorer

Esquimalt

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Not everything is about your area

 

Just saying. Most of the posters in here live way south west of you

That's fair.  Im just saying from my perspective, the past couple of GFS runs have been great for pretty much everyone in the region.  This one not so great for everybody.  That simple.  

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Money Proficient

Money

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That's fair.  Im just saying from my perspective, the past couple of GFS runs have been great for pretty much everyone in the region.  This one not so great for everybody.  That simple.

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018110300&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=

 

Compared to

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018110218&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=

 

Or

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018110212&fh=246&r=conus&dpdt=

 

Seems like a good run to most?

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Esquimalt Explorer

Esquimalt

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Ehhh i guess so.  But if you look at temperatures it tells a whole other story.

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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Has my vote!! Getting better every time. Theres a hole in the middle on that last one.

 

Gonna be a long, sleepless week for me though. :) awesome!

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Euro is about 12-24 hours behind the GFS for the mid/late week system. Also is VERY interesting for many reading this but I'am not biting this year and posting snow maps ( I know I did earlier , but changing that up) outside 100 hrs. We are better than that and can expect better things than these "fantasy" snow totals out to 240hr.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Euro is about 12-24 hours behind the GFS for the mid/late week system. Also is VERY interesting for many reading this but I'am not biting this year and posting snow maps ( I know I did earlier , but changing that up) outside 100 hrs. We are better than that and can expect better things than these "fantasy" snow totals out to 240hr.

I'll bite for you! Heres the map LOL

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2eevugy.jpg

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Here comes the anticipated N shift for this time of year- still wouldn't be surprised if it's a SD to MN to WI event....

OMA AFD from this AM-

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Mid and upper-level flow becomes more zonal mid-week before a
deepening trough moves into the central CONUS later in the week. Of
note, 00Z ECMWF is deeper with this trough than the 00z GFS. Recent
model trends also continue to push the better forcing farther to the
north. Precipitation chances will increase across the area late Wed
night into Thursday with some forecast uncertainty remaining as
to where the strongest forcing will set up. Temperature profiles
do indicate snow initially with surface temperatures warming to
above freezing during the day Thursday. Many uncertainties remain
but there is potential for some accumulating snow Wed night into
Thursday. Unseasonably cold temperatures follow this system with
indications of readings nearly 20 degrees below normal Friday into
Saturday. In collaboration with neighboring offices, have trended
temperatures downward but may possibly need nudged down more.

 

DMX AFD-

 

At this point, Wednesday is looking like an overall quiet day ahead
of the next weather system. It is also the day with the best chance
for some sunshine across parts of central Iowa over the next 7 days.
However, any sunshine will be short-lived as the next trough moves
into the region Wednesday evening. The 00z GFS has precipitation
over the southern 2/3rds of Iowa later Wednesday night, which is a
northward shift compared to its last several runs. Not to be
outdone, the 00z ECMWF has also shifted northward compared to its
12z run; however, not as much as the GFS. Needless to say, this now
brings precipitation in the form of snow late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning before transitioning to rain as the low
levels warm. However, a rain/snow mix may continue over northern
Iowa. The precipitation will transition to snow before ending
Thursday night or Friday morning. On the heels of this precipitation
will be some very cold air with 1000 to 500mb thickness of around
505dm and 850mb temperatures in the low to middle teens below zero
on Friday. CIPS analogs have a strong signal for below normal
temperatures with temperatures averaging 5 degrees below normal.
Highs were nudged downward similar to previous shift with highs in
the 30s, which is 20 degrees below normal in many places.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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My mind is going bonkers realizing that we may be on the verge of a possible historic stretch of weather during the opening 2 weeks of November.  All the modeling are seemingly heading towards a ferocious start to winter, one that not only includes the cold, but systems galore!  My goodness, I don't know where to begin.  It's like we snapped into winter 1 month in advance when just over a week ago the models (except for the Euro/EPS) had been showing a benign pattern with some cold.  IMO, this is likely going to be a trend this year and we can be rest assured that the models may be underestimating the magnitude of the cold this season and suppression/blocking should def be impactful.  All I'm saying for now, is enjoy this stretch bc what I think is about to happen, memories will be made for many of us...at least for me, even if I'm not in the direct hit from a snow storm.  Instead of us all watching the East Coast peeps get buried time and time again, they will have to sit on the sidelines and watch the "Central CONUS Show"...haha, I like the sound of that!\

 

So here we are, have you seen an EPS snow mean like this on 11/3???  The ensembles are picking up on yet another "cutter" around Veterans Day....this is an astounding hyper-active pattern we are entering.  #mindblown

 

BTW, this question is for those older posters on here that can remember the late 70's.  Was this a similar pattern that evolved in November back then??

 

 

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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One of the more important aspects creating the environment to allow the cold to intensify this early in the season, will be what is about to happen in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  10mb temps near the Alaska/Arctic region are about -13C and in about 7-8 days, this region and near the Bearing Sea are going to rise dramatically towards +17/18C!  That is more than a 30C flip in temps which will certainly play a big role.  The location of the warming which is about to happen will put pressure on the Polar Vortex and elongate it like we saw in the recent cold winters of '13-'14 & '14/'15.  Nature is aligning all the caveats early and often this season for what will be a magical season.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The time change later tonight could not have been anymore "well-timed" than it is with all these potential wintry systems attacking our sub. Models coming in 1 hour earlier is gonna be so nice. Gosh I love this stuff!

 

Meanwhile, the my trees are about 75% bare and today's weather is quite ideal for round #2 of raking before the next clipper system dives SE out of the Rockies and dig across the Plains/MW.  Man, I'm really enjoying these systems all intensify smack dab in the middle of the nation.  Even this little, "compact clipper" is going to produce a line of storms wrapping up into a healthy storm for the MW/GL's.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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Five days out and we're in the bullseye on Euro. What could possibly go wrong?

 

06Z GFS is the exact opposite of what needs to happen here. Temps are way milder and any precip from either system has shifted way far South and East. Let's hope it was cuckoo for cocoa puffs otherwise....

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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As daylight emerges, I'm drawn by the beauty of the Frosty morning, orange/reddish color in the sky, the colorful leaves with a frosty coating and the cool & crisp temp of 34F.  This has been a fantastic Autumn around here, esp with all the vibrant colors this past week.  After tomorrows windy day (30-50mph gusts) and then the Election Day storm, I think most trees will be bare.  I've said this before, but I cannot recall an Autumn that had so many windy days.

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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My understanding today is that if you take the Euro's surface temps through day 16, you get only days 1-2 and 14-16 that resemble anything looking warm and I can tell you that day 15 is definitely not going to be close until all the craziness dies down.

 

GEFS trend appears to be heading into the cold camp also. There's a few CONUS wide days there though that make every November I have seen look warm.

 

Crazy. Happy November indeed!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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My understanding today is that if you take the Euro's surface temps through day 16, you get only days 1-2 and 14-16 that resemble anything looking warm and I can tell you that day 15 is definitely not going to be close until all the craziness dies down.

 

GEFS trend appears to be heading into the cold camp also. There's a few CONUS wide days there though that make every November I have seen look warm.

 

Crazy. Happy November indeed!

 

Could we rival Nov' 76 in terms of cold??  I remember Nov '14 was cold, but to think how all of this may play out can make you wonder.  I went fishing in Wisco during the Nov '14 cold snap and there was ice already forming by the launch area and shorelines.

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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@ Tom BTW, this question is for those older posters on here that can remember the late 70's.  Was this a similar pattern that evolved in November back then??

 

It is still too early to try and compare past Novembers and remember no two seasons are 100% the same. But some past Novembers that somewhat compare to what happened this past October and to what could happen this November IMO are 1959, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1977. Of course there have been times in the past where November's weather did not carry over into the main part of the winter season. That said there is an old saying that "Ice on the pond that can hold the weight of a duck in November the winter will be filled with mud"

BTW for winter storms my benchmark storms are 1967(January) 1973 (March) and 1978(January) Of the 3 the 1967 storm was the bigger one in Bay City. MI as we were living in town and were snowed in for 4 days. The 1973 storm Bay City had 20+ inches of snow and a flood as the NE winds pushed the Saginaw Bay on the shore of the bay and into the river into town. All 3 of the above storms had very strong NE winds, a lot of snow, and a lot of thunder and lightning. Think of a major summer time thunderstorm with high winds and down pours of snow instead of rain.

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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Could we rival Nov' 76 in terms of cold??  I remember Nov '14 was cold, but to think how all of this may play out can make you wonder.  I went fishing in Wisco during the Nov '14 cold snap and there was ice already forming by the launch area and shorelines.

The last time it has reached 60° or better here in Grand Rapids this year was on October 14th In October 1976 the last last 60 or better date here in Grand Rapids was on October 15th. November 1976 is one of only 9 Novembers in Grand Rapids history that it did not reach 60 or better. In 1976/77 October, November, December and January were all well below average temperature wise. While there was some lake effect snow on this side of the lake big snow storms were not the norm the winter season of 1976/77

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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@ Tom BTW, this question is for those older posters on here that can remember the late 70's.  Was this a similar pattern that evolved in November back then??

 

It is still too early to try and compare past Novembers and remember no two seasons are 100% the same. But some past Novembers that somewhat compare to what happened this past October and to what could happen this November IMO are 1959, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1977. Of course there have been times in the past where November's weather did not carry over into the main part of the winter season. That said there is an old saying that "Ice on the pond that can hold the weight of a duck in November the winter will be filled with mud"

BTW for winter storms my benchmark storms are 1967(January) 1973 (March) and 1978(January) Of the 3 the 1967 storm was the bigger one in Bay City. MI as we were living in town and were snowed in for 4 days. The 1973 storm Bay City had 20+ inches of snow and a flood as the NE winds pushed the Saginaw Bay on the shore of the bay and into the river into town. All 3 of the above storms had very strong NE winds, a lot of snow, and a lot of thunder and lightning. Think of a major summer time thunderstorm with high winds and down pours of snow instead of rain.

Thanks for your data WestJim.  The 1977 year you mentioned above was more in line to what I was referring to as that year was a weak El Nino and would fit with this years pattern in the Pacific, albeit this years index values may be a little warmer...might that influence a more active STJ than that year???  Who knows, but I like what I'm seeing as the storm track is setting up perfectly thus far for our region.  I'd like to experience a Jan '78 Blitz this year that could wallop both of our back yards.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Currently 39F w mostly cloudy skies.

 

My forecast looks crazy down the road. By late next week, It is showing snow w accumulations every other day. My highs are showing 30-35F and lows in the low 20s. WHOA! :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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Could we rival Nov' 76 in terms of cold?? I remember Nov '14 was cold, but to think how all of this may play out can make you wonder. I went fishing in Wisco during the Nov '14 cold snap and there was ice already forming by the launch area and shorelines.

We have to get a weak reload in after mid-month with some blocking NE. If we do that, 1976 is a great call. The next few days are REALLY important.

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