November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Mixed signals coming from you this evening.

 

That is the Andrew Experience.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

We just had a bunch of tornados...

 

But not a single sharknado, what gives?

[Jesse]

Mixed signals coming from you this evening.

I see you guys have met.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was a more well-rounded winter further north. The Puget Sound had snow events in January, February and March that year. And obviously December. 

 

Ehhhh. PDX had snow with the early January one and Salem had snow in late February, those weren't cold events up north either. And I mentioned the early January cold period, and the late January cool down that gave some dustings to Seattle and a lot of places in the valley. It was a good winter, just could have been more.

[TT-SEA]

That is the Andrew Experience.

I am now very worried about the timing of his flight. Have we nailed down the precise timing of the snow which is scheduled to start in 14 days at his house?

[Front Ranger]

But not a single sharknado, what gives?

 

That movie is now 5 years old. Another reminder that time flies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mixed signals coming from you this evening.

 

Small details can make a big difference.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am now very worried about the timing of his flight. Have we nailed down the precise timing of the snow which is scheduled to start in 14 days at his house?

 

7:30pm. but I have to host our company Christmas luncheon at noon so I probably will miss the snow if it occurs at any time after 8am.

[TT-SEA]

Small details can make a big difference.

Not really... next week will be chilly regardless of the 500mb pattern or 850mb temp details

 

East wind... inversions... clear nights.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not really... next will be chilly regardless of the 500mb pattern or 850mb temp details

 

East wind... inversions... clear nights.

 

The 00z GFS operational probably spins up enough high clouds to nix the cold nights. 

 

Down here that is.

[Front Ranger]

Ehhhh. PDX had snow with the early January one and Salem had snow in late February, those weren't cold events up north either. And I mentioned the early January cold period, and the late January cool down that gave some dustings to Seattle and a lot of places in the valley. It was a good winter, just could have been more.

 

2008-09 had four straight months with at least 2.5" at SEA. Literally the only time that's ever happened.

 

December 2008 was also one of the rare months where both PDX and SEA managed 6+ sub-freezing highs.

[TT-SEA]

7:30pm. but I have to host our company Christmas luncheon at noon so I probably will miss the snow if it occurs at any time after 8am.

I am betting on 3:20 p.m. give or take 10 minutes but I have to wait until the ECMWF comes out.

 

And then wait another 4 days when that day comes into view at 240 hours on the ECMWF.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ehhhh. PDX had snow with the early January one and Salem had snow in late February, those weren't cold events up north either. And I mentioned the early January cold period, and the late January cool down that gave some dustings to Seattle and a lot of places in the valley. It was a good winter, just could have been more.

 

Also, Eugene had almost nothing that winter.  An inch or so and a sub freezing high or 2 in Dec and then nothing else for a long time.  Like 2010 or 2011 I think. Bottom line, 2008 was not a regional event.  1990 was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am betting on 3:20 p.m. give or take 10 minutes but I have to wait until the ECMWF comes out.

 

And then wait another 4 days when that day comes into view at 240 hours on the ECMWF.

 

I will just extrapolate out!

[Front Ranger]

Also, Eugene had almost nothing that winter.  An inch or so and a sub freezing high or 2 in Dec and then nothing else for a long time.  Like 2010 or 2011 I think.

 

2013-14 and 2016-17 made up for that nicely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also, Eugene had almost nothing that winter.  An inch or so and a sub freezing high or 2 in Dec and then nothing else for a long time.  Like 2010 or 2011 I think.

 

Let's be fair here. Eugene had a 27/18 and 27/10 day during the first cold snap that was a regional event. There was snow going into it too, and 1-2" may have been all you had, but other parts of Eugene had a lot more. I was down there for the basketball game against St. Mary's and there was about 4" on the ground at Mac Court and it had been raining for much of the day. 

[BLI snowman]

January 1935 must have been more north based? I saw it snowed quite a bit at SLE, but the temps don't look like they were exceptionally cold. 

 

Pretty similar to December 1968, so technically not a true regional airmass but it was intense enough where it did occur that I'd be hesitant to not include it. Salem managed a 25/16 day, Portland was 20/12, Seattle was 20/15, Everett was 19/3, and Bellingham was 12/3.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I still can't get over December 2013 in Eugene. Pretty insane this happened in our present climate state.

4th: 37/18

5th: 31/14

6th: 26/22 

7th: 23/-7

8th: 19/-10

9th: 26/-2

10th: 32/8

11th: 29/10

12th: 38/11

 

February 2014 wasn't bad there either.

 

5th: 36/24

6th: 25/20

7th: 29/20

8th: 32/29

9th: 35/32

 

February 2014 was kind of a throwback event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty similar to December 1968, so technically not a true regional airmass but it was intense enough where it did occur that I'd be hesitant to not include it. Salem managed a 25/16 day, Portland was 20/12, Seattle was 20/15, Everett was 19/3, and Bellingham was 12/3.

 

Okay, there is a day with a low of 16 where the high temp is missing on the Utah State site for SLE, so that must be the 25/17 day. 

 

I've always felt January 2004 was close to something great. That -25 at Pasco blows my mind. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Someone show me this on the models.... Looks at least worth following

 

The next low will move southeast off the B.C. coast and bring rain

or showers to the area Thursday night and Friday. This system will

be somewhat cooler coming in from the northwest, but the mostly

over water trajectory will moderate the air mass to some degree.

The interesting period is Friday night as colder air infiltrates

the north while moisture will just starting to shift south with

the low pressure system. Most forecast models bring in some colder

air by Friday night as moisture decreases and moves south with the

low. Snow levels may fall as low as 1000 feet before precipitation

tapers off.

 

Some models have trended more bullish on driving colder Canadian

air south into Western Washington. The ECMWF is one of the colder

solutions as it amplifies the ridge along 140w. There is a slight

chance of a short wave moving down the back side of the ridge and

reaching Western Washington sometime over the weekend.

Precipitation could fall as a mix of rain and snow near sea-level.

However, given the high degree of uncertainty, only rain is

mentioned in the forecast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone show me this on the models.... Looks at least worth following

 

The next low will move southeast off the B.C. coast and bring rain

or showers to the area Thursday night and Friday. This system will

be somewhat cooler coming in from the northwest, but the mostly

over water trajectory will moderate the air mass to some degree.

The interesting period is Friday night as colder air infiltrates

the north while moisture will just starting to shift south with

the low pressure system. Most forecast models bring in some colder

air by Friday night as moisture decreases and moves south with the

low. Snow levels may fall as low as 1000 feet before precipitation

tapers off.

 

Some models have trended more bullish on driving colder Canadian

air south into Western Washington. The ECMWF is one of the colder

solutions as it amplifies the ridge along 140w. There is a slight

chance of a short wave moving down the back side of the ridge and

reaching Western Washington sometime over the weekend.

Precipitation could fall as a mix of rain and snow near sea-level.

However, given the high degree of uncertainty, only rain is

mentioned in the forecast.

 

Seems pretty bullish. 

[Front Ranger]

I still can't get over December 2013 in Eugene. Pretty insane this happened in our present climate state.

 

4th: 37/18

5th: 31/14

6th: 26/22 

7th: 23/-7

8th: 19/-10

9th: 26/-2

10th: 32/8

11th: 29/10

12th: 38/11

 

February 2014 wasn't bad there either.

 

5th: 36/24

6th: 25/20

7th: 29/20

8th: 32/29

9th: 35/32

 

February 2014 was kind of a throwback event. 

 

That's the thing. If a Dec 2013 can happen in Eugene, or a 25/14 can happen at SEA before Thanksgiving (2010), or any number of the cold records we've seen occur east of the mountains the past few year can happen, I absolutely believe something along the lines of December 1990 can occur again.

 

Just have to get the right pattern at the right time. And this is the type of year (extreme blockiness) where it would be foolish to rule anything out.

[Requiem]

Thickness will probably get close to 528 this weekend. And its not even December yet, in 2016 I hadn't even had a freeze at this point. I think it was the warmest November on record. And things turned out okay, so lets turn the weenie down a notch until at least after the holidays.

 

 

Then again by this point models showed precipitation and stormy weather/snow before the hour 240 range in 2016.

[BLI snowman]

Okay, there is a day with a low of 16 where the high temp is missing on the Utah State site for SLE, so that must be the 25/17 day. 

 

I've always felt January 2004 was close to something great. That -25 at Pasco blows my mind. 

 

The temps on the westside were pretty disappointingly pedestrian with that one. 850s were never that cold but considering the depth of the cold in the basin, one would have expected something more than 24/18 type stuff. 

[Deweydog]

Okay, there is a day with a low of 16 where the high temp is missing on the Utah State site for SLE, so that must be the 25/17 day.

 

I've always felt January 2004 was close to something great. That -25 at Pasco blows my mind.

January 2004 was a perfect storm. Pretty much just a glancing blow on paper.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The temps on the westside were pretty disappointingly pedestrian with that one. 850s were never that cold but considering the depth of the cold in the basin, one would have expected something more than 24/18 type stuff. 

 

South of Salem February 2014 was colder than the January 04' event. Salem north January 2004 was slightly colder, but PDX's high of 23 on 2/6/14 beats the 24 in 04'. 

[Requiem]

Looks like gusty winds and heavy rain have pushed into the Bay Area.

[BLI snowman]

South of Salem February 2014 was colder than the January 04' event. Salem north January 2004 was slightly colder, but PDX's high of 23 on 2/6/14 beats the 24 in 04'. 

 

Here locally, we had a high of 21 on 2/6/14 which matched 12/21/98 as the lowest max since the 1990 airmass.

[Jesse]

Here locally, we had a high of 21 on 2/6/14 which matched 12/21/98 as the lowest max since the 1990 airmass.

We had a high of 15 in Stevenson that day. Coldest day I’ve an experienced in this area as an adult.

[Timmy]

We had a high of 15 in Stevenson that day. Coldest day I’ve an experienced in this area as an adult.

There were 3 straight days at my house where it didn’t get above 15 at my house. It wasn’t enjoyable however because I was moving in and painting at the time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up here I had a 21/2 in December 2013 and a 23/13 on 2/6/14. Only other day close since was the 25/12 I had in January 2017. 

[TT-SEA]

00z is a major outlier.

 

00Z GFS:

 

 

00Z ECMWF:

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

00Z GFS:

 

 

00Z ECMWF:

 

And the

00z FV3-GFS

 

[Bryant]

Anyone ever notice the comment element here? It’s either Phil vs Tim, or Justin vs Tim, or Flatiron vs Tim, or Jim vs Tim, or Chris vs Tim, or Bryant vs Tim etc etc etc. Seems like there’s one name that keeps coming up.

❤

[El_Nina]

I don't remember the FV3 being mentioned before this year.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z GFS:

 

 

00Z ECMWF:

 

Kind of a mess of a pattern. Feels like something might give at some point.

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles are pretty fugly in the mid-long range.

[Jesse]

There were 3 straight days at my house where it didn’t get above 15 at my house. It wasn’t enjoyable however because I was moving in and painting at the time.

20 years ago there would have been 15 straight days where it didn’t get above 3 and it would have been enjoyable because you were moving out and sanding down the walls.

[Bryant]

Well, lets hope I was correct with the earlier model teases being premature. 2nd half of December is preferred in my opinion anyways

[TT-SEA]

Kind of a mess of a pattern. Feels like something might give at some point.

 

Rex Blockish?