November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Tropical Tidbits is straight up calling out their hosting company in a banner on top.

[Jesse]

I was responding to your comment about everyone supposedly wanting warm/dry/sunny weather there. At least in my family, that’s (mostly) not true.

Most natives out here like sunny weather just fine, myself included. I don’t think many crave it to the point where they are still complaining about our rainy climate in the midst of a regional drought, though.

[TT-SEA]

Most natives out here like sunny weather just fine, myself included. I don’t think many crave it to the point where they are still complaining about our rainy climate in the midst of a regional drought, though.

Who is complaining? Except everyone moaning about the lack of cold and snow??

 

And you keep saying regional but there is no drought up here to worry about so its business as usual.

[wx_statman]

This is kind of irrelevant to the thread topic, but wow that is just gobsmacking cold being modeled for Thanksgiving across ME/VT/NH/MA.

 

Maybe Wx_Statman would know more, but I can’t find anything quite that extreme on upper air re-analysis on/before T-day. At least not in recent decades (I didn’t have time to go all the way back).

 

11/26/1938 is a good example from the old days. Many monthly record lows in VT & NH, down into the -10's. 

 

11/24/1989 is a more recent example....

[Jesse]

And you keep saying regional but there is no drought up here to worry about so its business as usual.

I use that term because it is/has been affecting the majority of the region.

[TT-SEA]

I use that term because it is/has been affecting the majority of the region.

Great.

 

We are in very different regions then.

[Jesse]

Seems like for now, the models are hinting at the idea that the cooler, wetter pattern starting the middle of the week may just be a 3-4 day affair before we switch back to a drier pattern again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seems like for now, the models are hinting at the idea that the cooler, wetter pattern starting the middle of the week may just be a 3-4 day affair before we switch back to a drier pattern again.

Shocker

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tropical Tidbits is straight up calling out their hosting company in a banner on top.

Yes they are!! I love it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well there is some historically cold weather to track in the NE this week. This from the Burlington, VT NWS Discussion.

 

As of 303 PM EST Sunday...Over the last several weeks it feels like
we`ve been out doing ourselves with the cold air...this trend will
continue as once again, we will be ushering in the coldest air seen
thus far this season. Models are in good agreement on a push of
considerably well-below normal temperatures moving in overnight
Wednesday into Thursday...1000-500 mb thickness values fall to 495
dm with near -20 C 850mb temperatures Thursday morning. As this
arctic front moves across the area, the potential still exists for
snow squalls, however the placement of these are to be determined as
GFS and ECMWF agreement is poor on track of surface low pressure.
925mb temperatures Thursday morning are around -20 C only warming
slightly to -16 C. Temperatures will likely struggle to reach 20
degrees in the Champlain Valley and mid teens elsewhere, with the
potential for some record low highs on Thursday (we`ll have to see
how the 12am temperatures fare as the front moves through).
Additionally, gusty NW winds will make chill values on Thursday will
feel like January with readings near 0.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hey at least the 534 line drops over us in the clown range. Depressing trends continue.

 

534 line never dropped to Oregon in 2002-03. Not sure about 14-15.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey at least the 534 line drops over us in the clown range. Depressing trends continue.

 

534 line never dropped to Oregon in 2002-03. Not sure about 14-15.

 

Yeah it did briefly in late November 2014, and late December 2014. 

[wx_statman]

Well there is some historically cold weather to track in the NE this week. This from the Burlington, VT NWS Discussion.

 

As of 303 PM EST Sunday...Over the last several weeks it feels like

we`ve been out doing ourselves with the cold air...this trend will

continue as once again, we will be ushering in the coldest air seen

thus far this season. Models are in good agreement on a push of

considerably well-below normal temperatures moving in overnight

Wednesday into Thursday...1000-500 mb thickness values fall to 495

dm with near -20 C 850mb temperatures Thursday morning. As this

arctic front moves across the area, the potential still exists for

snow squalls, however the placement of these are to be determined as

GFS and ECMWF agreement is poor on track of surface low pressure.

925mb temperatures Thursday morning are around -20 C only warming

slightly to -16 C. Temperatures will likely struggle to reach 20

degrees in the Champlain Valley and mid teens elsewhere, with the

potential for some record low highs on Thursday (we`ll have to see

how the 12am temperatures fare as the front moves through).

Additionally, gusty NW winds will make chill values on Thursday will

feel like January with readings near 0.

 

Very cold stretch for that region. Burlington already saw their earliest 23 degree max on record on the 14th this month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More active than we've seen. Some snow in the higher Cascades too.

 

[Blizzard777]

When's the last good region-wide storm we've had? Probably December 2006, I would expect.

That particular wind storm had me on edge! That was just a smidge to much wind for the fir trees swaying towards my house. Hearing that ghostly howling with the fir trees be thrashed about was just scary. Troutdale wind like that is fine as I had no trees to endanger my homestead. Adrenaline certainly was pumping during that storm!

[Requiem]

That particular wind storm had me on edge! That was just a smidge to much wind for the fir trees swaying towards my house. Hearing that ghostly howling with the fir trees be thrashed about was just scary. Troutdale wind like that is fine as I had no trees to endanger my homestead. Adrenaline certainly was pumping during that storm!

 

Now that I think about it December 2014 was great too. Gusts past 60 here at my location, the winds were screaming.

[Esquimalt]

Very cold stretch for that region. Burlington already saw their earliest 23 degree max on record on the 14th this month.

Yeah I was in Ottawa the 14th and our max was 17...just amazing cold for this time of year!

[Jesse]

So nothing even fun to watch over the next 15 days?

How has the weather been in Beijing?

[Requiem]

Well, there is some excitement. Nice little storm that could deliver some blustery conditions on Thursday. First real storm we've seen this year, and GFS was trending strong earlier (trended weaker but now is trending more south and stronger). Who knows?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not sure if there's any smoke in Oregon or Washington from the Camp Fire. Last year they got smoke from the Thomas Fire.

 

Anyway, it seems they deleted the politics topic again, even though some forest service workers as well as the weekly scientific Earthweek column admitted that fire suppression (not getting rid of thick brush in controlled burns, especially in populated areas) made the fires worse.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure if there's any smoke in Oregon or Washington from the Camp Fire. Last year they got smoke from the Thomas Fire.

 

Anyway, it seems they deleted the politics topic again, even though some forest service workers as well as the weekly scientific Earthweek column admitted that fire suppression (not getting rid of thick brush in controlled burns, especially in populated areas) made the fires worse.

 

It was crystal clear here today... no smoke or haze.    Just a deep blue sky.  

[Blizzard777]

More active than we've seen. Some snow in the higher Cascades too.

 

Time to play Plinko with the low. Where will it come onshore???

[Anti Marine Layer]

It was crystal clear here today... no smoke or haze.    Just a deep blue sky.  

 

Nice November day in Washington.

 

Southern California was also nice ... in the 70s and hazy, but nothing more than the usual haze caused by the marine layer.

[Blizzard777]

Not sure if there's any smoke in Oregon or Washington from the Camp Fire. Last year they got smoke from the Thomas Fire.

 

Anyway, it seems they deleted the politics topic again, even though some forest service workers as well as the weekly scientific Earthweek column admitted that fire suppression (not getting rid of thick brush in controlled burns, especially in populated areas) made the fires worse.

We had just about a 24 hour period of the Camp Fire smoke up here and cleared off quickly...Portland I think got a couple days of it (this happened last week).

[Requiem]

Time to play Plinko with the low. Where will it come onshore???

 

This could provide some blustery conditions (for the coast at the very least) depending on where it comes ashore. Main problem is that it is weakening, but the front associated with it is powerful. Models have trended the storm south, but as of now this could be fun to watch on the GOES satellite.

[Phil]

11/26/1938 is a good example from the old days. Many monthly record lows in VT & NH, down into the -10's.

 

11/24/1989 is a more recent example....

Interesting. Looks like this one might be down in that territory, then. The ECMWF gets -5*F to -10*F well into northeast PA and southern NY.

[wx_statman]

Interesting. Looks like this one might be down in that territory, then. The ECMWF gets -5*F to -10*F well into northeast PA and southern NY.

 

Nice. That would definitely be up there with the biggest cold waves in S. central New York state, this early in the season. Two of the biggest were both in the 1930s - 11/16/1933, and 11/26/1938. Both dropped into the -10 range in that area. 

[wx_statman]

In fact, the New York state monthly record low was set on November 16, 1933 when it hit -24 (at Franklinville). Crazy early to have that happen. It was their Nov. 1955. 

[Andrew.]

In another blog post today i came across a discussion of the December 2008 storm in Portland. At the time i was staying with my parents in the West hills of Portland at roughly 400ish feet and we picked up roughly 20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for almost 3 weeks. This was associated with a strong arctic front dropping south, which seems rare these days. I would love to see something like this once again, especially now that i am at roughly 830 feet in Portland.

 

[Requiem]

In another blog post today i came across a discussion of the December 2008 storm in Portland. At the time i was staying with my parents in the West hills of Portland at roughly 400ish feet and we picked up roughly 20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for almost 3 weeks. This was associated with a strong arctic front dropping south, which seems rare these days. I would love to see something like this once again, especially now that i am at roughly 830 feet in Portland.

 

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Oh, you live in the West Hills? So do I, we picked up about 16.5 inches in less than 24-hours on January 10-11, 2017.

[Deweydog]

I highly doubt we see a repeat of December 2008 until it happens again.

[MossMan]

In another blog post today i came across a discussion of the December 2008 storm in Portland. At the time i was staying with my parents in the West hills of Portland at roughly 400ish feet and we picked up roughly 20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for almost 3 weeks. This was associated with a strong arctic front dropping south, which seems rare these days. I would love to see something like this once again, especially now that i am at roughly 830 feet in Portland.

 

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Will never forget 08! 34” total and a low of -2.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

08 was so fun. Easily the best winter event of my lifetime. Glad I didn't live down here then XD

[ShawniganLake]

08 was so fun. Easily the best winter event of my lifetime. Glad I didn't live down here then XD

I occasionally go back and look at some YouTube videos that people posted from Shawnigan Lake at Christmas 2008. We had 63” of snow fall between mid December and early January.

[BLI snowman]

In fact, the New York state monthly record low was set on November 16, 1933 when it hit -24 (at Franklinville). Crazy early to have that happen. It was their Nov. 1955. 

 

I actually wouldn't mind a 1933-34 repeat. 

[Phil]

In fact, the New York state monthly record low was set on November 16, 1933 when it hit -24 (at Franklinville). Crazy early to have that happen. It was their Nov. 1955.

Dang, that’s otherworldly. Was there snow on the ground or was it pure cold advection?

[TT-SEA]

Solid easterly flow now but its not reaching all the way into Seattle... its 48 in North Bend and 37 at SEA. That usually means its a gap wind.

 

On the North Bend facebook page... people are warning that I-90 is icy in Fall City in what they call the "Preston Dip" near the soccer complex. Very common situation during these east wind events during the cold season. Really catches you by surprise because its so warm and dry in North Bend and Snoqualmie and people don't expect there to be any ice on the road. But its cold and damp in that area near Fall City because its protected from the east wind... and worse yet the south side of the freeway is shaded all day at this time of year so it can be problem even in the afternoon.

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

It was a Portland micro-climate kind of morning into work. Started out at 35 near Barnes and Cornell. Dropped to 32 at Cedar hills and 217. 38 at 217 and 99w. Then jumped to 46 at lower boones ferry and I5. Back down to 36 at just past I5/205 junction, then back to 39 at Stafford rd. 37 at hwy 43. Now 31 here in downtown Gladstone.

 

Thought you PDX guys would find that interesting.

[Tyler Mode]

It was a Portland micro-climate kind of morning into work. Started out at 35 near Barnes and Cornell. Dropped to 32 at Cedar hills and 217. 38 at 217 and 99w. Then jumped to 46 at lower boones ferry and I5. Back down to 36 at just past I5/205 junction, then back to 39 at Stafford rd. 37 at hwy 43. Now 31 here in downtown Gladstone.

 

Thought you PDX guys would find that interesting.

Similar coming home last night.  48 at 119th in Brush Prairie, 43 just over a mile further north.  27 this morning with clear skies.

[TT-SEA]

It was a Portland micro-climate kind of morning into work. Started out at 35 near Barnes and Cornell. Dropped to 32 at Cedar hills and 217. 38 at 217 and 99w. Then jumped to 46 at lower boones ferry and I5. Back down to 36 at just past I5/205 junction, then back to 39 at Stafford rd. 37 at hwy 43. Now 31 here in downtown Gladstone.

 

Thought you PDX guys would find that interesting.

 

This is a great example of why its hard to understand PNW micro-climates without living here and experiencing it firsthand.   

 

The best conditions for frost elsewhere (e.g. calm with clear skies) often comes when there is an east wind here.    

 

My area does terrible with frost... but also gets more snow than almost anywhere in the populated areas of the lowlands.    Both are true because of micro-climates.