Tom Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's. This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized. While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Both NAM models are painting a nice swath of snow across the Plains...trending in the right direction if your looking for a decent snowfall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Both NAM models are painting a nice swath of snow across the Plains...trending in the right direction if your looking for a decent snowfall... Right over my house Tom. NWS is now saying a solid 1-3” with higher amounts definitely possible. Little wind so not a travel issue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's. This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized. While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly. Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 The euro takes the main wave of snow south of my area, but then it has a clipper that lays down a narrow swath of snow nw-se through eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm. I'm really curious to see how the LES potential sets up around the GL's and possibly into N IN later next week. This weekends set up looks marginal. The real deal cold hits early next week as the Polar Vortex crashes down across the Lakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 The euro takes the main wave of snow south of my area, but then it has a clipper that lays down a narrow swath of snow nw-se through eastern Iowa. Cue's replay of last winter's pattern. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 This system has potential. If I get a few flakes falling, then, I am a happy camper. Afterall, its still early Nov. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 NAM continues to be further north and more robust than most other models for Thursday into Friday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110612/078/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 @Jaster You should get some good LES next week as the very cold air rushes in ova the warm lakes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 NAM continues to be further north and more robust than most other models for Thursday into Friday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110612/078/snku_024h.us_mw.png I wonder if this is where MQT's getting their idea of the clipper merging with the S stream wave? Climo certainly would favor such a track. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 GRR's take from this range on the LES portion of this storm Late Thursday night however moisture ramps up considerably inadvance of a deep upper trough digging our way from the NorthernPlains. A period of lake effect rain/snow looks to be likely fromFriday morning into Saturday. Given 850mb temps centered around-10C, snow looks to be the dominant precipitation type. Snowaccumulations appear to be likely across Central and Western LowerMichigan. Too early to nail down amounts at this point, but grassyareas are likely to turn white, especially at night into the morninghours when we will be colder.Periodic bouts of additional lake effect rain/snow (mainly snow)look likely from the weekend into early next week. A deep uppertrough will be in place with shortwaves rotating through increasinglake effect precip. The forecast certainly has a winter flavor to itwith colder than normal temperatures and snow in the forecast. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 GRR's take from this range on the LES portion of this stormThere ya go buddy. Get ready. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 excited to have winter weather back. ORD's Nov snowfall avg is 1.2 inches so anything this month is golden to me 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome. Think we can get back to this?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing. I'm really hoping that this event can over perform. In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th. Just inane. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Think we can get back to this??Might not be as wound up from a few days ago, but the idea is still there for a phased storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing. I'm really hoping that this event can over perform. In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th. Just inane. My sis-in-law lives downtown Montreal. With that lifestyle tho, they don't have much use for snow-n-cold. Unfortunately, it makes for a long winter at times. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Might not be as wound up from a few days ago, but the idea is still there for a phased storm. This was the map I meant to post. (maybe you knew?) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 UK looks similar to the NAM, maybe even stronger though. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 My sis-in-law lives downtown Montreal. With that lifestyle tho, they don't have much use for snow-n-cold. Unfortunately, it makes for a long winter at times. They do have skiing a couple of hours outside the city, but nonetheless if you're a city dweller you don't enjoy the snow as much that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 There ya go buddy. Get ready. Here's my sign. I mentioned how great the fetch looked: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 12Z GFS - Nice hit here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 maybe throw some snow over here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Euro brings light snow into much of eastern Iowa Thursday night, but looks like an inch or less. Then the 2nd wave on Friday is further south than on the 00z run. At this point it is looking more and more likely that we will see accumulating snow on Thursday though for much of the sub, for some of us it will be the first accumulating snows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Here's my sign. I mentioned how great the fetch looked: 20181106 0z GDPS 120hr snow.pngYa looking good buddy. Hopefully you can squeeze out a 3-6inch snowfall outta this storm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Surprised to see OAX even mentioned the more bullish model outputs. Usually they just ignore those. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 We need this to shift North. Euro continues to bring biggest amounts to N KS. I don't have my hopes up on this but we'll see. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Here we go for winter 2018-2019, Winter Weather Advisory for Nebraska. Awesome URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018...Accumulating Snow Expected Late Wednesday Night and Thursday...KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ060-072-073-082>084-070600-/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0015.181108T0600Z-181109T0000Z/Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Dawson-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,Kensington, Codell, Plainville, Stockton, Osborne, Downs,Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Elwood,Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAYNIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south centralNebraska.* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning or eveningcommute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet orfreezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slipperyroads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 These totals have also been increased since this morning. Hope this continues for area further to the north and east. I know its early but I would hate to miss out on this snow! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 NAMily is crap for anyone not located within the state of Kansas. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Here we go for winter 2018-2019, Winter Weather Advisory for Nebraska. Awesome NWS.png URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...Accumulating Snow Expected Late Wednesday Night and Thursday... KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ060-072-073-082>084-070600-/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0015.181108T0600Z-181109T0000Z/Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Dawson-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,Kensington, Codell, Plainville, Stockton, Osborne, Downs,Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Elwood,Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAYNIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south centralNebraska. * WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning or eveningcommute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet orfreezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slipperyroads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1. Seems kinda early to issue headlines tbh. Did NWS change their guidelines for how far in advance they issue winter products or something? I could see a watch this far out, but a WWA? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 The Friday clipper from DVN Friday, a more consistent signal for a clipper moving into the areais expected. This clipper is forecast to be north of H3 jet on thecyclonic side. It will move across the area during the lateafternoon into the evening on Friday in time for the Friday commute.Looking at a potential snow squall setup here as llvl CAPE, high RHin the llvls, negative thetae lapse rates set up with this clipper.In most setups, the thetae lapse rates would be more negative thanthis one. Regardless the presence of CAPE suggests that the shortlived bursts of heavy snow are possible. The 12z GFS is the mostbullish of all models here. The ECMWF has the same signal justfurther west in line with where it believe the H5 wave will move.These forecast parameters will need to be watched by later shifts tosee if they hold up. Overall accumulation with this clipper willlikely be higher than the one in the morning, but still under 2inches across the area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Seems kinda early to issue headlines tbh. Did NWS change their guidelines for how far in advance they issue winter products or something? I could see a watch this far out, but a WWA?Good question, though here it goes into effect at midnight tomorrow night. Wonder if it has anything to do with the first decent snow event and a heads up to the public, just a guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Good question, though here it goes into effect at midnight tomorrow night. Wonder if it has anything to do with the first decent snow event and a heads up to the public, just a guess.I'd say you're probably right here. Probably better to be early with this one due to time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'd say you're probably right here. Probably better to be early with this one due to time of year.Just my 2 cents. I don’t have any evidence, but NWS Hastings has mentioned before in recent years, about the first snow event of a season and how when amounts are on the edge, they play it safe and issue an advisory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 After the snow on Thursday, our high on Friday is only 29 with wind chills much lower with a Friday night low of 11. My son and I are going to Lincoln for the Huskers vs. Illinois game Saturday. We better bundle up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system.If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may wantto stop here. The area of high pressure will move across IowaWednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm advectionwill develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturationand cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid toupper 30s are expected, however, the theta-e advection inducedforcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation inthe lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into thethe low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa withlight snow developing. This light snow potential will liftnortheast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecastarea. An intense PV anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from thenorthwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface loweringto near 600 mb and low static stability along with low CAPE andsteepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potentialfor convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow notout of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snowwith local higher amounts with the focus currently north ofInterstate 80. The other potential issue is the wind gustpotential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Windgusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snowwith visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travelhazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weatherheadlines. For now, continue to prefer the GFS solution which hasbeen very consistent with the track of this feature. Very coldFriday night with wind chill values approaching zero over northernIowa.The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level cloudswill increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the stateas weak forcing passes aloft. The upper level trough will deepenSunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spillsouth into the Midwest. The 850 mb progs of -15C to -20C areincredibly cold for this time of year. The current forecast highsin the 30s may be too high and have too much climatology and biascorrection included in them and may have to be adjusted into the20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will mayaccompany the very cold air arrival. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system. If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may wantto stop here. The area of high pressure will move across IowaWednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm advectionwill develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturationand cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid toupper 30s are expected, however, the theta-e advection inducedforcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation inthe lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into thethe low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa withlight snow developing. This light snow potential will liftnortheast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecastarea. An intense PV anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from thenorthwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface loweringto near 600 mb and low static stability along with low CAPE andsteepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potentialfor convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow notout of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snowwith local higher amounts with the focus currently north ofInterstate 80. The other potential issue is the wind gustpotential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Windgusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snowwith visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travelhazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weatherheadlines. For now, continue to prefer the GFS solution which hasbeen very consistent with the track of this feature. Very coldFriday night with wind chill values approaching zero over northernIowa. The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level cloudswill increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the stateas weak forcing passes aloft. The upper level trough will deepenSunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spillsouth into the Midwest. The 850 mb progs of -15C to -20C areincredibly cold for this time of year. The current forecast highsin the 30s may be too high and have too much climatology and biascorrection included in them and may have to be adjusted into the20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will mayaccompany the very cold air arrival. Awesome! Sounds like the winter version of our dynamic clipper back on 10/20. Could this be the winter of potent clippers as Tom has alluded to? The 2nd bliz of '67 that brought Chicago to a standstill was indeed this kind of storm. Been a long time since I've experienced something similar. This winter could have it all, and then some. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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