December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

You really have a chip on your shoulder!

 

 

Nah, just a good memory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Affirmative. That’s a completely different wave station on the GFS vs the ECMWF.

 

Again, very easy to confuse the two.

 

So the GFS wants to give us a winter, EURO says not so fast?

[Jesse]

Last I checked at least most places were tracking well cooler than 2015. 

 

Punched the numbers in for fun. If we get a close to average December it would be their 4th or 5th warmest year on record.

[Phil]

Affirmative. That’s a completely different wave station on the GFS vs the ECMWF.

 

Again, very easy to confuse the two.

Then again, it’s still way too far west, verbatim (and the GFS bias is progressive and dispersive with waves..so that tells you all you need to know).

[MossMan]

This lovely morning at 7:30am. No clue on temp since my gauge decided not to work this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Punched the numbers in for fun. If we get a close to average December it would be their 4th or 5th warmest year on record.

 

Given how shitty 2018 was for cold anomalies that almost feels like a win.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, just a good memory.

No... its definitely a chip on your shoulder.

 

And I have never said a sunny, frosty winter morning was ugly.     Ever.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Corvallis had a storm total of 15", Salem had 14" on the month, 12" on the 19th. 

 

EUG had 8.19" on for that month. Bulls-eye was definitely the Dallas-Monmouth/Corvallis strip.

[Phil]

I don't understand why anyone would ever care about frost anyway. It happens while most of us are sleeping and is boring and ugly.

“See? I don’t always just complain about rain. You just have a vandetta against me”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This lovely morning at 7:30am. No clue on temp since my gauge decided not to work this morning.

 

I am going to guess, below freezing. 

[Jesse]

[Kayla]

I have been watching the web cams at Whistler lately since we will be there in about 3 weeks... they are actually using the snow guns right down in the village this morning.   

 

 

My biathlon race was just cancelled for there next weekend because of lack of snow...

[Phil]

So the GFS wants to give us a winter, EURO says not so fast?

Well, the GFS solution would be colder/stormier in the more immediate term (the next 3 weeks) but would produce weaker wave activity into the stratosphere and reduce the chances of cold in January as a result, since the wavetrain will have matured (and the wavenumber will have reduced) by then.

 

The ECMWF pattern would be catastrophically terrible out there for the next 2-3 weeks, but would probably produce enough wave activity to split the PV, and get legitimate Arctic air to within striking distance during the first two weeks of January.

 

So the ECMWF is a high risk, high reward type deal, while the GFS is the “safe play” that keeps things interesting this month but precludes anything exciting during the midwinter period.

[TT-SEA]

“See? I don’t always just complain about rain. You just have a vandetta against me”.

"vendetta"

 

And he has a major chip on his shoulder. It's just fact.

 

Ironically... he is the one who talks of escaping to Montana while we love it here and have no plans to leave. And we easily could leave and live mortgage-free with cash in the bank in many other areas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, the GFS solution would be colder/stormier in the more immediate term (the next 3 weeks) but would produce weaker wave activity into the stratosphere and reduce the chances of cold in January as a result, since the wavetrain will have matured (and the wavenumber will have reduced) by then.

 

The ECMWF pattern would be catastrophically terrible out there for the next 2-3 weeks, but would probably produce enough wave activity to split the PV, and get legitimate Arctic air to within striking distance during the first two weeks of January.

 

So the ECMWF is a high risk, high reward type deal, while the GFS is the “safe play” that keeps things interesting this month but precludes anything exciting during the midwinter period.

 

I definitely prefer the GFS solution, not like we're actually going to have arctic air in January.

[MossMan]

I am going to guess, below freezing.

Pretty good bet. My guess would be around 29 or 30.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"vendetta"

 

And he has a major chip on his shoulder. It's just fact.

 

Ironically... he is the one who talks of escaping to Montana while we love it here and have no plans to leave. And we easily could leave and live mortgage-free with cash in the bank in many other areas.

 

I daydream about moving to lots of different places, but then I realize its not really about where you live, but how you live. If I'm unhappy here, I'll be unhappy wherever I go next. So if I start feeling restless, it's not the place that needs to change, its me.

[Kayla]

Canmore is pretty darn gorgeous I must say.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/15ob0b7.jpg

[Phil]

[Andrew.]

Taken from another page, had to share haha. Credit goes to Michael Herman.

 

Guys, if she:

 

-Is always promising you great things

-Immediately takes those promises away

-Her image shows up on every computer screen in the world

-She only speaks you at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z

-She isn't your girl,

-She's the GFS

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

I daydream about moving to lots of different places, but then I realize its not really about where you live, but how you live. If I'm unhappy here, I'll be unhappy wherever I go next. So if I start feeling restless, it's not the place that needs to change, its me.

Hmm, wouldn’t that depend on what is actually causing your unhappiness?

 

Like, if you’re obsessed with the weather as your life’s passion (like me), could you ever live find true, organic happiness living in a place like San Diego?

 

I most certainly could not, and there’s almost nothing anyone could do to make me move there. Would have to be either some huge salary increase or true love. And even then I’m not sure how long I could last.

[MossMan]

I daydream about moving to lots of different places, but then I realize its not really about where you live, but how you live. If I'm unhappy here, I'll be unhappy wherever I go next. So if I start feeling restless, it's not the place that needs to change, its me.

I was becoming unhappy at our other place for three reasons, the split level entry of the house was terrible with kids and dogs. The drug deals and homeless taking over our quiet little side road, and Smokey Point becoming a zoo. Much much happier at our new place. We have none of those issues now. Weather is about the same of course since it was only a 13 mile jog to the northeast but we went from 280ft to 520ft, and we are still in a “snow zone”. If we would have gone any further north and dropped down into the flats of Mt. Vernon we would have been screwed for snow/most convergence zones.

[Phil]

Posting rain stats is not complaining. We talk weather here and rain is happening much of the time. Can't really ignore it.

 

I love the heavy rain periods and report on them... and also like to point out that it has not even been drier than normal around here this year... let alone being in a drought.

I stopped reading after the bolded.

 

Either you’re not being honest with yourself, or you’re just not being honest, period (and I would know).

[TT-SEA]

I stopped reading after the bolded.

 

Either you’re not being honest with yourself, or you’re just not being honest, period (and I would know).

I love the heavy rain period because it usually leads to dry periods. That is just a fact.

[Phil]

While -45C 850mb temps are rare in western Canada, they’ve had no problem verifying over Greenland in recent years.

 

This one might actually have a chance at verifying.

 

[Deweydog]

This lovely morning at 7:30am. No clue on temp since my gauge decided not to work this morning.

At or below 0c.

[Blizzard777]

Weird that the GEM is staying with a "transition event" this Saturday. Probably won't happen. but it's there.

East wind will be doing its part.

Doesn’t seem cold enough in the Columbia Basin yet but ya never know with that variable as well as the Gorge is just unpredictable and loves to humble local weathermen!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canmore is pretty darn gorgeous I must say.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/15ob0b7.jpg

I remember staying in Canmore in late September about 10 years ago, it was gorgeous.  I remember no matter what direction I looked, there were mountains.  A nice alternative to staying in Banff, but still close.  

[Front Ranger]

No... its definitely a chip on your shoulder.

 

And I have never said a sunny, frosty winter morning was ugly.     Ever.

 

That's just part of his online persona. I'm sure in person there's not actually a real chip on his shoulder.

[Phil]

I definitely prefer the GFS solution, not like we're actually going to have arctic air in January.

It’s possible. Look at 1968/69.

 

Big SSW/CW in December 1968. Ripped at the PV, which led to that crazy pattern in January. Many crappy longwave patterns across multiple winters have been turned around by SSW events. Even in super niños.

 

- Early season PV attack in November of 1997 that led to an unusual pattern in December.

 

- Big SSW in January of 2006, which culminated in the February 2006 blocking regime.

 

- Minor SSW event around New Years in 2012 that bumped the vortex into BC in mid-January 2012,

 

- Big SSW around New Years in 2013 which narrowly missed producing an Arctic blast in mid-January.

 

- Early season PV attack in November 2014, which bucked the crappy pattern and produced an Arctic blast (but the vortex quickly recovered).

 

- Big SSW last February, essentially saved winter out there.

 

And looking back, some of the biggest winters in PNW history had SSW events, or at least minor ones with ideal timing.

 

1949/50 (2 SSW events, 2nd one in Dec was a monster).

1954/55

1962/63 (another monster).

1963/64

1970/71

1972/73

1978/79

1979/80

1981/82 (CW)

1984/85(monster)

1988/89 (monster event in late Jan)

1990/91

 

So when it happens, it almost always increases the odds of interesting weather.

[Front Ranger]

Canmore is pretty darn gorgeous I must say.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/15ob0b7.jpg

 

Looks smoky. Stupid wildfires.

[Blizzard777]

What I see when folks try to change the opinion of another member !

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 1982 wasn't bad. Kind of a 80s version of January 2007.

[Front Ranger]

GEFS doesn't offer much hope of a -WPO or -EPO developing in the LR. I still have faith the blocking this winter will come through, though. 

[Kayla]

Looks smoky. Stupid wildfires.

 

Cold smoke!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX hit 32 this morning!

[Front Ranger]

- Big SSW around New Years in 2013 which narrowly missed producing an Arctic blast in mid-January.

 

 

And yet, this is the month you always rip me for, since I had higher than normal odds of a PNW Arctic outbreak that month in my winter outlook. 

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like PDX hit 32 this morning!

There was frost on the ground here. All of Oregon was chilly this morning. Crescent on the plateau in south-central OR hit 2°!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS doesn't offer much hope of a -WPO or -EPO developing in the LR. I still have faith the blocking this winter will come through, though. 

 

I believe you have pointed out correctly, that the models have been all over the place in the long range.