December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I left out a few.

 

- Big SSW in January 2003.

 

- SSW in Feb 1995..turned the worst pattern ever into something decent, albeit briefly (even with a terrible BDC/O^3 condition).

 

- Close call but huge wave attack (strongest ever recorded for so early in the season) in late November 1996, which had lasting effects into December 1996.

 

Also, 1951/52 had a CW/wave attack in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could see this winter going down as a pretty lame winter, a 2000-01 type dud. But I doubt we end up in the 2002-03 or 2014-15 ballpark.

[BLI snowman]

6.6"  for February 1993 is pretty lame. Glad they made up some of that disparity 25 years later.

 

Most of the Portland area had a bit more with that. Vancouver had about 8".

 

It’s possible. Look at 1968/69.

 

Big SSW/CW in December 1968. Ripped at the PV, which led to that crazy pattern in January. Many crappy longwave patterns across multiple winters have been turned around by SSW events. Even in super niños.

 

- Early season PV attack in November of 1997 that led to an unusual pattern in December.

 

- Big SSW in January of 2006, which culminated in the February 2006 blocking regime.

 

- Minor SSW event around New Years in 2012 that bumped the vortex into BC in mid-January 2012,

 

- Big SSW around New Years in 2013 which narrowly missed producing an Arctic blast in mid-January.

 

- Early season PV attack in November 2014, which bucked the crappy pattern and produced an Arctic blast (but the vortex quickly recovered).

 

- Big SSW last February, essentially saved winter out there.

 

And looking back, some of the biggest winters in PNW history had SSW events, or at least minor ones with ideal timing.

 

1949/50 (2 SSW events, 2nd one in Dec was a monster).

1954/55

1962/63 (another monster).

1963/64

1970/71

1972/73

1978/79

1979/80

1981/82 (CW)

1984/85(monster)

1988/89 (monster event in late Jan)

1990/91

 

So when it happens, it almost always increases the odds of interesting weather.

 

1963-64 was a big fat pile of poo for us, just FWIW.

[Phil]

And yet, this is the month you always rip me for, since I had higher than normal odds of a PNW Arctic outbreak that month in my winter outlook.

Lol, IIRC, that’s because you were insisting it actually was an Arctic outbreak. And you were also saying the PDO caused it or something like that. I don’t really remember.

 

Then you mod-previewed me when I challenged you and proceeded to attack me while I couldn’t respond. Which is where most of my animosity towards you stems from, to this very day.

[Omegaraptor]

Is there any chance that if sunshine hours were still being recorded, this year would be one of the sunniest on record?

 

It would be interesting to see sunshine data since 1995, esprcially how years like 2015 and 2018 scale up to the averages. Is there any weather station that is recording it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fog is lifting. Most of the leaves are gone now.

 

[Front Ranger]

Lol, IIRC, that’s because you were insisting it actually was an Arctic outbreak. And you were also saying the PDO caused it or something like that.

 

Then you mod-previewed me when I challenged you and proceeded to attack me while I couldn’t respond. Which is where most of my animosity towards you stems from, to this very day.

 

This post is full of false statements. Including the mod-preview thing...that never happened. Must have been another mod at the time. 

 

But yeah, I never insisted it was a PNW Arctic outbreak, just that the pattern came close to delivering one. There was definitely Arctic air into parts of the West with that, though.

 

And I also did not claim that the PDO caused it. 

[Front Ranger]

I believe you have pointed out correctly, that the models have been all over the place in the long range.

 

Oh yeah, even in the mid range they've been pretty poor over the past month or so.

 

Still, it would be nice to see some sort of positive signal emerge soon in the long range ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Frost remains in the shade... despite being well above freezing now.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Offshore flow starting to pick up. Abbotsford winds NE gusting to 26

[Jesse]

I daydream about moving to lots of different places, but then I realize its not really about where you live, but how you live. If I'm unhappy here, I'll be unhappy wherever I go next. So if I start feeling restless, it's not the place that needs to change, its me.

That’s a really good point. Of course, while it would be fun to live in a totally different climate for a few years, just for the experience, this region will always be home and where I plan to settle long term. Maybe in a slightly snowier microclimate like you.

[Jesse]

Definitely like the trends on the 12z runs in the long range.

[Jbolin]

Definitely like the trends on the 12z runs in the long range.

Definitely some disappointment to look forward to. 

[Jesse]

[Jbolin]

Why put it off when you can just be disappointed now!

I already am, 

 

Wait, is there something in the offing that may circumvent my desire to be disappointed?

[Kayla]

Oh yeah, even in the mid range they've been pretty poor over the past month or so.

 

Still, it would be nice to see some sort of positive signal emerge soon in the long range ensembles.

 

12z EPS still shows no signs of that happening over the next 15 days...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12z EPS still shows no signs of that happening over the next 15 days...

Does it look like a typical wet pattern with a lot of mountain snow?

[ShawniganLake]

12z EPS still shows no signs of that happening over the next 15 days...

What happened to your optimism for the PNW?

[Kayla]

Does it look like a typical wet pattern with a lot of mountain snow?

 

Nope. Maybe a decent mountain snow pattern for a couple of days around the 10-12th then right back to ridging. Probably a good inversion type pattern for the valley's.

[TT-SEA]

Does it look like a typical wet pattern with a lot of mountain snow?

 

 

12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period...

 

 

 

 

10-15 day period...

 

 

[Kayla]

What happened to your optimism for the PNW?

 

I still like your guys chances later this month but it would be nice to start seeing some signs of it at this point. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

What happened to your optimism for the PNW?

Reality...

[ShawniganLake]

Too me the EPS looks very wet after day 6. The 15 day precip anomaly is wetter than normal despite no rain falling this week. Long range 850s drop slightly below average, which should be a decent snow pattern for the mountains

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Next week will be very good for the mountains... take it to the bank!

[bainbridgekid]

12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period...

 

 

 

 

 

10-15 day period...

 

 

 

I hear December is a great BBQ month in Canada.

[Jbolin]

I hear December is a great BBQ month in Canada.

It's hard to get grill marks on poutine 

[MossMan]

I hear December is a great BBQ month in Canada.

Think of Canada as being this chunk of meat...

[Phil]

Too me the EPS looks very wet after day 6. The 15 day precip anomaly is wetter than normal despite no rain falling this week. Long range 850s drop slightly below average, which should be a decent snow pattern for the mountains

07A5E9A1-D69A-4C36-860F-E9367FB3D3E1.png

 

FE604C33-DDA5-475A-A53D-7D6202ED84A2.png

 

9BF3C127-0289-41F6-978E-57DC87604A94.png

Doesn’t WxModels.com use a 1997-2015 climatology period?

 

The 850’s remain largely above average on WxBell which uses a 1981-2010 climo period.

[Front Ranger]

The only encouraging thing about the EPS is...it probably isn't exactly right.

[Phil]

The EPS demonstrates why this isn’t a “cold loading” pattern..the vortex is much too far west, hence more warm SWrly advection into BC/Yukon (which actually scours out the cold, instead of building it).

[Kayla]

The only encouraging thing about the EPS is...it probably isn't exactly right.

 

At least it shows the EPO beginning to decline around the 13th.

[Timmy]

That anamoly maps looks bad but it’s only 5-7 above normal at 850mb. What is normal for this time of year in ne Canada? Like -10c?

[Andrew.]

Looking at the home station and so far have only notched a high of 38.7, sitting at 38.5 currently. Not bad for this boring stretch of weather.

[Andrew.]

I miss snow.

What's that?

[Front Ranger]

The EPS demonstrates why this isn’t a “cold loading” pattern..the vortex is much too far west, hence more warm SWrly advection into BC/Yukon (which actually scours out the cold, instead of building it).

I agree that the EPS is not what we want to see at this point.

[Bryant]

Speaking of last February, I forgot how well PDX did with that. The 6.6" of snow was the most they've seen in February since 1993 - and that was exactly what they got in '93 as well.

They've been on a great run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 36 at Eugene. Tigerwoodslibido may have that sub-40 day lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s a really good point. Of course, while it would be fun to live in a totally different climate for a few years, just for the experience, this region will always be home and where I plan to settle long term. Maybe in a slightly snowier microclimate like you.

 

Oh yeah its nice to live other places. I was glad to go to college outside the PNW. And that was a fun climate, more exciting than here, though I prefer ours. 

[Front Ranger]

Only 36 at Eugene. Tigerwoodslibido may have that sub-40 day lol.

 

Doesn't reflect his backyard, which is currently closing in on 60.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had come home early because my wife got called in to work. Interesting temp profiles driving home, Salem was around 45, Stayton was sunny, but only about 40, then most of the way home was in the upper 30s. 37 here at the house under sunny skies.