Requiem Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Snow is gone for us and much of Vancouver Island. Always time for the models to trend the other way Hoping for that November 2006 redux! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Yeah I mean theoretically what it is showing is possible. Those are about once every 5-10 year type 24 hour totals here. We had 6.69" in a 24 hour period in November 2006 and 5.39" on 1/18/2012. Probably wont be quite as intense and this far out the location of the heaviest range will likely move around a bit. I remember 01/18/2012 being a 5-6" snow day in Klamath. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Ensembles COULD be interesting. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 There’s an Alaskan wavebreak in the long range, which is a positive for sure. But I personally wouldn’t call that an “Aleutian ridge”.Need the wavebreak to give us a chance at a true block forming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Snow is gone for us and much of Vancouver Island. Always time for the models to trend the other way Low takes a more northerly track and leaves us on the cold rain side. Although the WRF is showing a snow day on Thursday for most of the island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Ensembles COULD be interesting. All I want is a strong low pressure system off the coast. For now. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 What does the euro show snow wise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 What does the euro show snow wiseNot sure that it’s quite out yet? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 What does the euro show snow wiseFor when and where? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I’m going skiing next weekend. Bring on the precipitation! 0.42” total today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 What does the euro show snow wise On Friday? EURO has way strengthened the Friday system. Probably a rainmaker now. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 On Friday? EURO has way strengthened the Friday system. Probably a rainmaker now.Rain even well up the BC coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 What does the euro show snow wise Out through day 5 now... total snow through Friday: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 All I want is a strong low pressure system off the coast. For now.As long as you get what you want We will all be happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Yuck. That Friday low curving way north blasts any cold air far away Looks quite mild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Ouch, EURO was not good. For wind or snow. All in all quite a disappointment of a run. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Total snow over next weekend... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 A7435886-CA6B-4184-AB99-ADAAA02BEE89.png9F0424A9-3798-4FBB-B712-B203B287AFF8.pngI really hope this run was an outlier, there is almost nothing good about it. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I really hope this run was an outlier, there is almost nothing good about it.Take a trip to hurricane ridge. 110mph gusts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Total snow over next 10 days... not so great for Oregon this run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Nice looking ECMWF run. Classic Kona low and exploding heights over the GOA late in the run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 It's truly remarkable how different the ECMWF is from the GFS and parallel GFS at day 10. The ECMWF is in the early stages of something big at that time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Well that's it. Flaked for an hour, owl hooting and a frog croaked. I have seen more eventful evenings. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Much improved EPS. Talking long range here. Block into Alaska, cold air building in Western Canada and a SE ridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 455CADC2-5D7E-48D1-B46A-7A276D315FDD.png That + center is right where we want it. Hopefully the downstream trough will trend sharper. FWIW this is about the 4th consecutive run the EPS control has been very good. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 A late night reviewing documentation for work...Hearing intermittent downpours rolling through about every 15 minutes. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Activity so far this winter. Not a very long list. 11/23: T11/30: 0.20"12/01: 3.00"12/08: 0.10"12/09: Wet 5 days I've seen flakes, 3 days of measurable snowfall. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 GFS busted big time with a predicted winter storm in NE Oklahoma over the weekend so I'm not putting much stock in this, but would be fun... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Looks like SLE had a 40/35 yesterday. I believe their coolest high of the season so far. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Wow! awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I wouldn't call it clear ensemble improvement, but at least quite a bit of spread. Which is a consolation for the operational being a total cluster.****. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Kill that b*tch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Kill that b*tch. How many times have we seen this same or similar map though? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Looks like the GEM ensemble is on board as well. Displaced PV right where you want it! http://i64.tinypic.com/10wv3hy.jpg 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Running through some analogs. These all nailed December. Looking forward to January..this is roughly in line with my expectations, at this point in time: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 How many times have we seen this same or similar map though?Slowly moving up in time, though. Finally. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Brutal black ice weather out here this morning. A mix of rain showers and clear breaks overnight with temps dropping to 32 around 630am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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