December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Any cherry blossoms?

[jcmcgaffey]

Any cherry blossoms?

Our neighbors cherry tree started blossoming just the other day with bright pink flowers/buds. Maybe when the neighbor is gone I will sneak over and take a photo...

[Front Ranger]

Part of it is typical model failure/mishandling of wavetrains, the other is the fact the most active surf zone and Arctic air has evacuated North America for the time being.

 

Contrary to what Flatiron said yesterday, the cold doesn’t just immediately build back once the pattern improves. It’s a bit more complicated than that.

I didn't say immediately.

[TT-SEA]

Our neighbors cherry tree started blossoming just the other day with bright pink flowers/buds. Maybe when the neighbor is gone I will sneak over and take a photo...

 

Are you being serious??

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe some frost next weekend...

 

Could be worse I guess...

[TT-SEA]

FYI - The system tomorrow is splitting like crazy. If you are looking for big rainfall totals...Won't happen.

 

Old news!

 

I reported that back on Wednesday.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse I guess...

 

And I thought last December was boring as hell...It looks very dynamic compared to this year.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows a system in coming in on a southerly track on Christmas Eve.

 

That could bring some snow to my area with an east wind.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pattern looks a little more splitty and disorganized on this run.

[Esquimalt]

12Z GFS shows a system in coming in on a southerly track on Christmas Eve.

 

That could bring some snow to my area with an east wind.

 

It also shows an overrunning event for most of VI (with exception of Victoria) on the 23rd.

[jcmcgaffey]

Are you being serious??

Yep. Came home from work and noticed it. Not as bloomed out as yesterday cause it’s morning still but later today it will bloom out more.

[Jesse]

FYI - The system tomorrow is splitting like crazy. If you are looking for big rainfall totals...Won't happen.

 

That hasn't been advertised as anything but a light rain maker for a couple days now.

 

Still going with your call for a drier than average month?

[Jesse]

I remember seeing cherry trees starting to blossom around the end of November 2016, right before we went into the freezer (relatively speaking) for the next couple months. Once it got cold they basically just sat in suspended animation until the whole tree bloomed just like normal in March.

 

Non-native species will do weird things in response to even relatively normal stretches of mild weather here in the cold season. And every year everybody acts like it's the first time they've ever seen such a thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Classic Nino hell on the 12z. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Classic Nino hell on the 12z. 

 

Get the folks out!

[Jesse]

Classic Nino hell on the 12z. 

 

Good thing this means nothing coming from you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That hasn't been advertised as anything but a light rain maker for a couple days now.

 

Still going with your call for a drier than average month?

 

Let's see where we are at...

 

PDX: 1.28" (-1.34)

SLE: 1.68" (-1.58)

EUG: 1.75" (-2.08)

 

The only potential significant rainmaker in the models right now is that Tuesday system. That COULD get us up near average, but then we'll probably start slipping again after that. It's not a total lock, but probably about a 75% chance we end up below average with a 25% we end up near average.

 

At face value we'll be about average on precip through the end of the month. So we'll end up below normal if that is the case. But the trend has been to split systems once they get within 1-3 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good thing this means nothing coming from you. 

 

I can tell you are getting worried when you start attacking Tim and I for reporting the facts.

[TT-SEA]

I remember seeing cherry trees starting to blossom around the end of November 2016, right before we went into the freezer (relatively speaking) for the next couple months. Once it got cold they basically just sat in suspended animation until the whole tree bloomed just like normal in March.

 

Non-native species will do weird things in response to even relatively normal stretches of mild weather here in the cold season. And every year everybody acts like it's the first time they've ever seen such a thing.

I have not seen cherry blossoms before late January here. Seems crazy that it could bloom before the daylight even starts increasing. That would be like fall color in early June.

 

(insert drought comment now)

[Jesse]

Let's see where we are at...

 

PDX: 1.28" (-1.34)

SLE: 1.68" (-1.58)

EUG: 1.75" (-2.08)

 

The only potential significant rainmaker in the models right now is that Tuesday system. That COULD get us up near average, but then we'll probably start slipping again after that. It's not a total lock, but probably about a 75% chance we end up below average with a 25% we end up near average. 

 

384% chance things will play out significantly different than the verbatim 12Z GFS the rest of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

384% chance things will play out significantly different than the verbatim 12Z GFS the rest of the month.

 

Probably drier. I would say warmer, but that is unlikely given how mild overall it is looking coming up.

[Jesse]

I can tell you are getting worried when you start attacking Tim and I for reporting the facts.

Nah, you just like doing a 180 in your interpretation of each run. Usually thanks to a change in the clown range. It's how you troll this place/get your kicks. It's kool, dog. We all have are things...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nah, you just like doing a 180 in your interpretation of every run, whether or not it is warranted It's how you troll this place/get your kicks. It's kool, dog. We all have are things...

 

The model runs change...I am aware of this, as I am that obviously things will not play out verbatim. I think you mistake my Andy Cottle like face value analysis for predictions.

[Jesse]

The model runs change...I am aware of this, as I am that obviously things will not play out verbatim. I think you mistake my Andy Cottle like face value analysis for predictions.

Andy Cottle....nice pull! I kind of miss that guy.

[TT-SEA]

Andy Cottle....nice pull! I kind of miss that guy.

He is still doing his model analysis on facebook.

[Jesse]

I just saw the problem with the 12z GFS. Wildly different than the 06z beyond hour 300. Forks!?

[MossMan]

I just saw the problem with the 12z GFS. Wildly different than the 06z beyond hour 300. Forks!?

It’s over. Stick forks in everything 2018/19 weather wise. Niño madness!!

[Deweydog]

300 was a pretty good movie but 384 will always be better.

[Geos]

You recommend any? I hope round 2 is more exciting followed by snow across wa and or

Neighborhood Bar and Grill on 100th NE and about NE 136th is a good one.

 

Chucks near the QFC on Juanita Drive too.

[stuffradio]

Wow Jesse, don't look at the CFS monthlies today. They show a wetter than normal May June and July!

[Geos]

GFS trending wetter and with a lot more snow in the mountains.

 

Looks fairly low in elevation too.

[TT-SEA]

Sun!   

[Deweydog]

Sun!

In the land of constant troughing?

[Skagit Weather]

What were some of the snow totals in certain locations in that 2011 event? That was insane.. I remember hearing 24" totals for a single day. 

 

They were pretty crazy in some locations. We ended up getting 8" in the morning and another 4" in the evening when the convergence zone started up, but a couple miles inland it was really crazy. In the space of 3 hours Mount Vernon and Burlington saw more than 18" of snow with up to 30" in the foothills. The section of I-5 in Skagit County shut down because the snow fell so fast that people got stuck in their cars.

 

 

Here were the official snow totals around the sound from NWS

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

1130 AM PDT THU FEB 24 2011

 

..STORM TOTALS FOR THE FEBRUARY 23-24TH SNOW EVENT...

 

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM VARIOUS LOCATIONS

AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE REPORTS

LISTED BELOW ARE IN INCHES AND ARE A COMBINATION OF OFFICIAL SPOTTER

REPORTS AND REPORTING STATIONS AS WELL AS SOME PUBLIC REPORTS. THEY

ARE ARRAINGED BY COUNTY

 

CLALLAM

SEKIU 2.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

FORKS 4.0

SEQUIM 4.5

COVILLE 6.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

PORT ANGELES 9.5

 

GRAYS HARBOR

OCEAN SHORES 2.0

OAKVILLE 3.0

OCEAN SHORES 3.0

MONTESANO 3.0

ELMA 3.0

OCOSTA 4.0

ABERDEEN 4.0

MOCLIPS 5.0

COSMOPOLIS 7.0

QUINAULT 7.0

WESTPORT 7.5

 

ISLAND

FREELAND 2.0

SOUTH GREENBANK 4.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

LANGLEY 6.0

CAMANO ISLAND 7.0

OAK HARBOR 9.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

 

JEFFERSON

PORT LUDLOW 0.5

CHIMACUM 0.7

PORT HADLOCK 3.6

PORT TOWNSEND 5.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

HOH RANGER STATION 14.0

KING

SEATTLE WFO 1.0

MERCER ISLAND 1.5

AUBURN 1.8

SEA-TAC AIRPORT 3.0

WOODENVILLE 3.0

BELLEVUE (IN TOWN) 4.3

SAMMAMISH 4.5

CARNATION 4.6

RENTON 5.0

COVINGTON 5.0

BELLEVUE (2MI SE) 7.0

SNOQUALMIE 8.0

NORTH BEND 14.7

 

KITSAP

SEABECK 0.0

BREMERTON 0.1

OLALLA 1.0

 

LEWIS

ONALASKA 3.0

CURTIS 3.1

 

MASON

SHELTON 2.0

 

PIERCE

EATONVILLE 2.0

GIG HARBOR 2.5

BONNEY LAKE 3.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

PUYALLUP 3.0

STEILACOOM 3.1

TACOMA (3MI NW) 3.5

TACOMA (1MI NW) 5.0

 

SAN JUAN

FRIDAY HARBOR 3.0

LOPEZ ISLAND 4.0

 

SKAGIT

BELFAST 4.5 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

ANACORTIS 6.0

LA CONNER 6.0 (AS OF FEB 23RD)

CONCRETE 12.0

MOUNT VERNON 16.5

 

SNOHOMISH

BOTHELL 0.8

ARLINGTON 2.5

MARYSVILLE 3.0

LAKE STEVENS 3.0

EVERETT 4.5

 

THURSTON

ROCHESTER 0.5

GRAND MOUND 2.0

OLYMPIA 4.5

 

WHATCOM

BELLINGHAM 1.5

[Jesse]

12z ensembles weren’t too bad.

[Timmy]

12z ensembles weren’t too bad.

*to

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From last night

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

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Last week of December prediction: Not cold in the East. No blocking St higher latitudes at the time models show sudden stratospheric warming. Interesting case to follow

 

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Dr. Ventrice's tweets are a must follow for weather weenies.

 

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago

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Latest GFS getting very close to a stratospheric polar vortex split around the beginning of the new year. This is the first run by the GFS op depicting this scenario so we'll have to see if things change.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago

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Here's the view from above with 10mb temperature anomalies (shaded) and 10mb geopotential heights (contours)

 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning...