December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Maybe Phil can help with this one.  Will also post this in the El Nino topic.

 

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice

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Headed towards a solid West Pacific - Maritime continent tropical forcing state. This new intraseasonal state of tropical convection will destructively interfere with El Nino

 

[kokaneekidz]

Well I guess i spoke wayyyyy tooo soon when I said busted windstorm yesterday. It did blow good and we lost power . Glad to see the good 'ol pnw weather of yesteryear. Now let's get a good snowstorm with compact snow and ice on the major arterials thanks to a flash freeze ***********

[Jesse]

#**********

[Requiem]

Why is everyone so worried? Tuesday's storm looks fun, and we have a strong jet stream the whole of next week that would make for some fun times tracking each individual storm. And always remember, the SSW still looks possible....

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Why is everyone so worried? Tuesday's storm looks fun, and we have a strong jet stream the whole of next week that would make for some fun times tracking each individual storm. And always remember, the SSW still looks possible....

Next week at least looks better for mountain snow with lower snow levels than this week.  Good for my location too.  

[TT-SEA]

Next week at least looks better for mountain snow with lower snow levels than this week.  Good for my location too.  

 

12Z ECMWF still showing good mountain snow over the next 10 days:

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12Z ECMWF still showing good mountain snow over the next 10 days:

 

Thanks Tim.  Wondering if the storms next weekend and into Christmas week look decent with lower snow levels than this week (we may get snow tonight, but then rain for the other systems mid week).

[TT-SEA]

Thanks Tim.  Wondering if the storms next weekend and into Christmas week look decent with lower snow levels than this week (we may get snow tonight, but then rain for the other systems mid week).

 

 

Total snow for first 5 days:

 

 

 

Total snow for days 5-10:

 

[Timmy]

Why is everyone so worried? Tuesday's storm looks fun, and we have a strong jet stream the whole of next week that would make for some fun times tracking each individual storm. And always remember, the SSW still looks possible....

If you can’t come to terms that the vast majority of the people here get off on snow and cold possibilities then you will be asking that question forever. I feel like you should have picked that up by now.

[wx_statman]

Non stop rain here in DC over last 24 hours. Feels like home.

[Timmy]

Eps just went to crap in the long range too.

[Requiem]

If you can’t come to terms that the vast majority of the people here get off on snow and cold possibilities then you will be asking that question forever. I feel like you should have picked that up by now.

 

I can come to terms. These, however, are the same people who know that 300+ forecasts are often inaccurate yet are disappointed when something changes in that range.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Total snow for first 5 days:

 

 

 

Total snow for days 5-10:

 

Thanks.  Not as much precip, but definitely lower snow levels.  I notice the 6 inches or so in the last 5 days for the Wenatchee area and snow for the Spokane area.   And more snow for the Gorge east of Portland and for the Oregon Cascades as well.

[Requiem]

From the NWS:

     ".LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...As mentioned above, most   models are speeding up the arrival of a strong Pacific frontal   system, with rain likely to arrive by Monday night. This system will   have ample access to subtropical moisture, with Integrated Vapor   Transport (IVT) reaching 3 standard deviations above normal for a   time of year where high IVT is relative common. The 00z GFS and NAM   aim this atmospheric river right at our forecast area Mon night and   Tue, while the 00z ECMWF aims the deepest moisture transport a little   further south. With an enormous amount of jet energy across the   Pacific, details on this system are evolving quickly and much can   change between now and then. However, based on what we`re seeing now,   a 2-inch rain event is possible for the inland valleys, with much   higher values, upwards of 5 inches, possible for the high terrain.   This raises the specter of river flooding if current guidance   verifies. To the south of the front, MSLP gradients look quite   impressive and may support strong winds both at the coast and inland.   Due to the subtropical nature of this system, snow levels will likely   be well above the Cascade passes."   

     .LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...As mentioned above, most   models are speeding up the arrival of a strong Pacific frontal   system, with rain likely to arrive by Monday night. This system will   have ample access to subtropical moisture, with Integrated Vapor   Transport (IVT) reaching 3 standard deviations above normal for a   time of year where high IVT is relative common. The 00z GFS and NAM   aim this atmospheric river right at our forecast area Mon night and   Tue, while the 00z ECMWF aims the deepest moisture transport a little   further south. With an enormous amount of jet energy across the   Pacific, details on this system are evolving quickly and much can   change between now and then. However, based on what we`re seeing now,   a 2-inch rain event is possible for the inland valleys, with much   higher values, upwards of 5 inches, possible for the high terrain.   This raises the specter of river flooding if current guidance   verifies. To the south of the front, MSLP gradients look quite   impressive and may support strong winds both at the coast and inland.   Due to the subtropical nature of this system, snow levels will likely   be well above the Cascade passes.    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51 out there. Not that we are anywhere close but I wonder what EUG’s longest stretch of 50F+ temps in a row is from Dec 1-Feb 14? I will look it up in a bit.

[Esquimalt]

Total snow for first 5 days:

 

 

 

Total snow for days 5-10:

 

How much snow falls on Mount Washington between the 19th and 23rd?

[Jesse]

Non stop rain here in DC over last 24 hours. Feels like home.

Been a long time since we’ve seen 24 hours of non-stop rain in Portland.

[Timmy]

Been a long time since we’ve seen 24 hours of non-stop rain in Portland.

probably 20 years or so

[Phil]

I can tell you are getting worried when you start attacking Tim and I for reporting the facts.

If there was ever a time to ignore clown range model solutions, it’s now.

 

We have the SSW, the MJO battling the low-freq/ENSO regime, one of the most prolific AAM vacillations on record (with a big -EAMT coming up), and the initiation of westerly shear in the tropical upper stratosphere altering the state of momentum deposition as we speak.

 

All solutions beyond day five are potentially subject to extreme instability.

[Phil]

Non stop rain here in DC over last 24 hours. Feels like home.

Since you’re into wx stats, this is the 23rd day in 2018 with at least 1” of rain.

 

As usual, the heaviest totals are clustered between July and September, during the climatological peak in precipitable water/ambient moisture.

 

[Blizzard777]

Our next contestant

[GHweatherChris]

Why is everyone so worried? Tuesday's storm looks fun, and we have a strong jet stream the whole of next week that would make for some fun times tracking each individual storm. And always remember, the SSW still looks possible....

This is gold, you are not the first to fire the ole "can't we all just get along" and you won't be the last !! Lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is gold, you are not the first to fire the ole "can't we all just get along" and you won't be the last !! Lol

 

[Requiem]

This is gold, you are not the first to fire the ole "can't we all just get along" and you won't be the last !! Lol

 

I really don't care if everyone doesn't get along- it never happens, but all I am saying is people don't need to be irrationally worried. We have enough weather excitement the coming week with lots of surprises possible.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We call these carrots. The nice thing about the operational run was things got coolish much sooner, just looking at the ensembles and such there doesn't seem to be a ton of potential before New Year's for any serious cold, but in practicality increasing rain and mountain snow is great.

Yeah if any Arctic Blast comes, it will be in January. Likely as we head into the 2nd week. Usually it takes about 2 to 3 weeks for Arctic air to surge into the USA after a SSW event takes place.

[Timmy]

I really don't care if everyone doesn't get along- it never happens, but all I am saying is people don't need to be irrationally worried. We have enough weather excitement the coming week with lots of surprises possible.

Again you’re assuming that many people get excited over wind. And compared to snow it’s not even close. So stop telling us to be excited about whether we don’t care about.

[Requiem]

Again you’re assuming that many people get excited over wind. And compared to snow it’s not even close. So stop telling us to be excited about whether we don’t care about.

 

I'm not assuming anything. Once again, I am just saying that the weather is not boring. No one needs to be "excited", but this is far from a death ridge.

 

I have this nagging feeling that you dislike me somewhat. Is it something I said? 

[FroYoBro]

Is the font all bold now for everyone else?

[Requiem]

Is the font all bold now for everyone else?

 

It is for me! Makes it look like everything I say is important 

[Kayla]

Hmmm

 

Out of curiosity, what cause that? Seems like it happens pretty often.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's been happening after msg 10 or so on each page for the last several.

[Blizzard777]

It's been happening after msg 10 or so on each page for the last several.

I thought is was after a 384 map was posted

[Phil]

Normal font for me.

[FroYoBro]

Normal font for me.

Yeah, now it is.

[Requiem]

Holy moly, the GFS and EURO are also painting a gusty wind scenario for Thursday. After the long period of 35-45 kt gusts on Tuesday (with heavy rain), EURO shows 50-60 kt gusts on Thursday, GFS shows 40-50 kt gusts.

 

Yes, I know wind isn't exciting for many of you but I thought it was worth mentioning.

[Deweydog]

GO BIG OR GO HOME!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy moly, the GFS and EURO are also painting a gusty wind scenario for Thursday. After the long period of 35-45 kt gusts on Tuesday (with heavy rain), EURO shows 50-60 kt gusts on Thursday, GFS shows 40-50 kt gusts.

 

Yes, I know wind isn't exciting for many of you but I thought it was worth mentioning.

 

Still better than shittsville splittsville

[Omegaraptor]

Just skiied on Mt Hood Meadows. Snow quality was pretty good. On and off sunshine but currently cloudy.

[El_Nina]

12Z ECMWF still showing good mountain snow over the next 10 days:

 

It's interesting how the warm fronts break down at a line in the middle of the Blue Mountains all the time. That map says it will continue.

[Timmy Supercell]

Holy moly, the GFS and EURO are also painting a gusty wind scenario for Thursday. After the long period of 35-45 kt gusts on Tuesday (with heavy rain), EURO shows 50-60 kt gusts on Thursday, GFS shows 40-50 kt gusts.

 

Yes, I know wind isn't exciting for many of you but I thought it was worth mentioning.

 

I'm pretty sure anything over 60mph will get many people in the viewing area excited. 

 

Less than a windstorm, not so much.