Stormgeek Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Taking a look through the 12z EPS members, its scary similar at this distance to how the Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm evolved. Almost an identical track through the KC region and into IA/WI. Take a gander at this snowfall mean...that is about as juiced up as you see this model 5-7 days out. C/N NE into Minny special???Wow, is that a mean of near 12? What the heck. Obviously means close to nothing at this range, but nice to at least see something like that after this recent pattern! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Man that 6" mean line isn't far from me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Well that run of the GFS wasn't any better lol. Thought we were getting somewhere and its a tad more north. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE.I didn’t think I was losing it. I think they must have some new mets or something as I have seen very short discos, not much in depth weather, and no real basis behind some of their forecasting lately. Thanks for your help Craig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.With the low tracking so close to our area the winds tend to be not as bad closer to the area of low pressure. Gonna all come down to the track of the low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 0z NAM with the low in western New Mexico at 84 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Looks like the nam has a bit more cold air running with it as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Icon with the low in Mexico again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Icon with the low in Mexico again.Looks slower and colder so far through 90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 I can definitely see dry air being a major issue with this one. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Gfs is way north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Looks like SPS area even gets into some mixing this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Gem takes the low into central NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Wow. Yeah as of now looking dismal for Omaha lincoln folks Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 CMC has some wrap around bands but yeah doesn't look good. I still think thermals are going to become something to watch. But oh well the people up north need some snow love too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Brief period of rain now on the GEM as well. Still manage 12” on the GEM and 10” on the GFS but the NW trend isn’t good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 0z GEFS ensembles showing a lot less spread this run. Here’s the mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 FV3 also now showing thermal issues here for a short while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Euro definitely didn’t go NW like a few of the others tonight. 1.2” precip (snow) over the metro down to Rochester. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Definitely am liking the tick southeast. Guess everything helps right? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 I'd ride the Euro even tho its moreless on its own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Major differences in the 00z Euro last night as the ULL continues to dig deeper into the 4 corners region. This run it takes the ULL into Amarillo, TX at 1:00pm Thursday instead of SW Kansas like in previous runs. Not only that, but we are seeing a different look which the ICON first flashed yesterday at both 18z and 00z sending 1 wave out ahead of the main system digging deep into TX and then ejects almost straight N up into the MW then GL's. This is trending to be quite a massive storm and the 00z Euro is suggesting a Plains Blizzard with wind gusts topping 40-45 mph across KS/NE. Nice bullseye for MSP.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Hard to believe this storm is still about 120 hours out on the 00z runs. We’ve been talking about it forever. Obviously we’re seeing a slower onset with the Euro which seems to allow the high pressure more time to build in from the north and accounts for the further south placement on the 00z run. The NWS has stated repeatedly that these types of systems often are ejected from the SW too soon, so perhaps we’ll see an even further shift south. I wouldn’t mind seeing more parts of Iowa get some snow. I have no shot this far south though. But typically this is where the Euro starts to lock in SLP placement. I’m interested to see the 12z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Tom needs to get the magnet out!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 GFS, it’s shiny new upgrade and now the ICON show rain as the main precip type for a while which would significantly reduce snow accums. Glad the Euro went the other direction but it’s on it’s own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north. Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 The 12z GFS has the SLP in Clinton, IA on Thursday at 6pm. The 00z Euro has the SLP in south central Kansas at 6pm Thursday. The model spread has seemingly gotten worse with every run. They aren’t even in the same ballpark anymore. I’d stick with the Euro personally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north. Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though.Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just got home from church. 12z Icon, yes please. Will dive into the model runs in depth now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains...I agree Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z Canadian. Holy Cow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z Canadian. Holy Cow.7BBEAA0C-A2FF-41E2-8140-74408C5950CA.pngGreat run for us for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Great run for us for sure.Yeah, that would work great for both of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area 34-36 when the snow is falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area 34-36 when the snow is falling. Another glass half empty buzz-kill post. You sure got a lock on those in this sub Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios. Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard. Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier. Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios. Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard. Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier. Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MNI am on the line. 0-16” over 30 miles. I officially would be 8-10” on this run. Was well over a foot on 0z Euro. As I’ve said, this line will continue moving back and forth over the next 3 days of runs imo. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios. Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard. Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier. Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MNI’ll take iffy thermals if it means a potential big dog. Thanks for posting the map, Tom. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.