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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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12Z GFS is much farther north and east and warmer with the trough next weekend... similar to the ECMWF solution.    Also shows dry weather from Sunday through late Friday for western WA.   We will see if this a trend or if it goes back to the cold solution. 

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12Z GEM still shows a cold trough next weekend... but a little less deep than its 00Z run.    12Z GFS actually builds in a ridge by Sunday but the GEM strongly disagrees.

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Up around 6” now. So blessed 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up around 6” now. So blessed 

That is so cool. I am so happy to see you get snow that I can not even use contractions. How much more do you think you will get? The south west wind is keeping it too warm up here. It is too warm here, in case you did not read it the first time. I am looking forward to weather that is warm and sunny anyway though. Wanted to make sure to remind everyone of that again too.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That is so cool. I am so happy to see you get snow that I can not even use contractions. How much more do you think you will get? The south west wind is keeping it too warm up here. It is too warm here, in case you did not read it the first time. I am looking forward to weather that is warm and sunny anyway though. Wanted to make sure to remind everyone of that again too.

Can you walk and chew gum Jesse?   

Have you ever been talking about troughing in the mid range while other people are on here posting about nice weather?   You literally do that every time there is nice weather.  

I am able to track and comment on the current weather situation and also track what is coming up.   You seem to want to 100% control the discussion and then blame me for doing that.   When it actuality I enjoy the posts about the current weather and also like talking about what is coming ahead.     

  

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is much farther north and east and warmer with the trough next weekend... similar to the ECMWF solution.    Also shows dry weather from Sunday through late Friday for western WA.   We will see if this a trend or if it goes back to the cold solution. 

Word is getting out about the nice weather next week.  Everybody is talking about how nice it’s going to be.    Monday through Thursday look gorgeous. ❤️ ☀️ 

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Word is getting out about the nice weather next week.  Everybody is talking about how nice it’s going to be.    Monday through Thursday look gorgeous. ❤️ ☀️ 

It looks like its going to be really nice!   And did you know its snowing in places this morning?    Or is that too much information to process on a weather forum.  😁

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This is really reminding me of the late March 2018 event. Just an incredible end to what was already a good winter. For good measure my daughter goes in to spring break with her 17th snow day of the year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It looks like its going to be really nice!   And did you know its snowing in places this morning?    Or is that too much information to process on a weather forum.  😁

Information overload 🤯 

Looked like there might have been a layer of frozen slush on the roof tops here this morning.  I didn’t do much investigating into it but there definitely wasn’t anything on the ground.  
 

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This feels similar to late summer of 2021 in terms of one person constantly mocking other people for discussing topics they don't approve.   Hopefully a good analog going forward.

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Interesting when you look at the high elevation snotel stations the snow pack is not very impressive. Mt. Hood test site, Hogg Rock by Santiam Pass, Three Creek Meadows by the Sisters, all below average snow pack. The lower elevation sites are just absolutely killing it though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is really reminding me of the late March 2018 event. Just an incredible end to what was already a good winter. For good measure my daughter goes in to spring break with her 17th snow day of the year. 

I don't remember too much about late March 2018... but we did get about 4 or 5 inches of graupel in a crazy c-zone on 4/1/18 which happened to be Easter Sunday that year.  

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This feels similar to late summer of 2021 in terms of one person constantly mocking other people for discussing topics they don't approve.   Hopefully a good analog going forward.

In fairness to Jesse, he's just calling it like he sees it. It's pretty obvious you are getting annoyed by some of us reporting what is going on outside our front door. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is really reminding me of the late March 2018 event. Just an incredible end to what was already a good winter. For good measure my daughter goes in to spring break with her 17th snow day of the year. 

Spring break is just ending here. 58” of snow and I think we only had 1 snow day this winter.   Are they going to make those days up into the summer?

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't remember too much about late March 2018... but we did get about 4 or 5 inches of graupel in a crazy c-zone on 4/1/18 which happened to be Easter Sunday that year.  

We had a little snow the first couple days of April, had a conference later that month in Hood River, and then went camping by Mt. Hood, it was chilly with a little snow, but then summer pretty much started and we had our hottest driest May of all time. Avicii took his own life in April 2018 as well. :( 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In fairness to Jesse, he's just calling it like he sees it. It's pretty obvious you are getting annoyed by some of us reporting what is going on outside our front door. 

You are completely wrong.   I talk about what is coming up every day of the year.    And I have been talking about what is happening now as well and genuinely find that interesting too.    Not sure what else I can say but if you want to assume the worst then go ahead.  

How is different than you talking about a cold trough in the future while its sunny and warm outside and people are enjoying it?    That is what interests you and its perfectly fine.  

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In fairness to Jesse, he's just calling it like he sees it. It's pretty obvious you are getting annoyed by some of us reporting what is going on outside our front door. 

Thankx dog. Yeah the fakeness is what kills me. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thankx dog. Yeah the fakeness is what kills me. 

How is it fake?   Am I not looking forward to the nice weather this coming week?   I am pretty sure I was honest about that.  And I definitely find the posts about the current weather interesting too.   Its happening and its pretty noteworthy.   Should I mock you for pretending to like sunny days?   Or maybe you can enjoy different kinds of weather?    I am not being fake and I am going to talk about the current weather and what is coming up.    You can mock me all you want but its just silly and doesn't change anything.

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9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Spring break is just ending here. 58” of snow and I think we only had 1 snow day this winter.   Are they going to make those days up into the summer?

You got most of your snow in December right? Not quite sure what they are going to do. I know they already had school on several days that were supposed to be inservice days. The school has not said anything, and I've heard nothing but speculation from other parents. My neighbor who grew up here, said this is pretty common and they never made the days up when she was a kid. American public schools are pretty terrible. We had heard good things about this school, and it is so close to the house, it seemed like it would be nice for her to attend the local community school, but so far I've been pretty disappointed. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Total snow through Sunday morning per 12Z ECMWF... pretty sure there will be some accumulating snow in my area this evening with a robust c-zone.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-9853600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 with light snow at McMinnville at 11am on March 24th. Nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Sunday morning per 12Z ECMWF... pretty sure there will be some accumulating snow in my area this evening with a robust c-zone.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-9853600.png

Wow, looks like we have a lot more snow coming, per this map. Other than probably a few inches it accounts for that have already fallen. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Burns, OR missed a record low by 1 degree this morning. Incredible run they have put up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, looks like we have a lot more snow coming, per this map. Other than probably a few inches it accounts for that have already fallen. 

I guess I am supposed to mock you for this so I avoid being fake.  But that seems silly because it's actually happening whether I like it or not and you enjoy it... so unfortunately I am genuinely looking forward to your pics over the weekend.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A lot fewer sunbreaks today than I was anticipating, we might be hard pressed to get above 35 today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot fewer sunbreaks today than I was anticipating, we might be hard pressed to get above 35 today. 

Pretty raw day here... no sun breaks yet.    38 and windy.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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