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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pics or video or it didn't happen, you know the rules for you Phil.

I took a video!

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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And now severe thunderstorm warning. :lol:

I feel like a little kid again. This winter did its damndest to ruin my passion for weather, but tonight is making up for it.

Sorry for the spam guys. I’ll stfu now. Lol

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Another day in the low 80s. 🤮 

4 days ago wind chills were ~ 10°F. Trying to acclimate to the inevitable but mother nature keeps throwing knuckleballs.

I am still about 3 months away from possible low 80's.

It makes sense though as we are on pace to have the coldest March ever recorded. When we are cold your area torches. 

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Picked up 0.43" of rain here earlier with a little hail mixed in as the temperature dropped from 51F to 37F. Kind of crazy that that makes it second wettest day of the year here so far.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am still about 3 months away from possible low 80's.

It makes sense though as we are on pace to have the coldest March ever recorded. When we are cold your area torches. 

Where does this winter rank now for your area, in terms of snow/cold?

A forum for the end of the world.

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mostly clear in Kamloops right now. Maybe I should get in my truck, start driving, and call in sick tomorrow.

You probably just need to go to any location with a clear northern view. Even with city lights, you still have a shot.

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1 minute ago, Dave said:

You probably just need to go to any location with a clear northern view. Even with city lights, you still have a shot.

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Kold GFS run!

I'm really hoping we can get some snow in this area during the next 2 or 3 days.  A lot of potential with the air mass certainly cold enough at times.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Dave said:

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

Yup, caught the end of a display a couple years ago when I was living in Bellingham. By the time I got out of town to where it was good and dark, gone. Plus the highway cams show Coquihalla Pass is getting a snowstorm tonight.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS says tomorrow night might be interesting IMBY.

hrdps-vancouverski-snow_12hr_cm-9774400.thumb.png.95ec9bf5f1bab2ad29e040fdb97ec678.pnghrdps-vancouverski-t925-9774400.thumb.png.5cdcf5f387a43c7666293f7b13419e65.png

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

We shall see. I am frankly not the most optimistic about this. Have had crap luck with scoring snow in March in the PNW lowlands. But those -2˚C 925 mbar temps are encouraging.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

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Winter tidings. 

16D0BB21-94B3-4EAB-ABE4-E0CC92C61308.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Stampede Pass is down to 26 with strong onshore flow.  Impressively cold maritime polar air mass!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think the next month is going to tell the tale on ENSO for this summer and beyond.  Still a decent chance of avoiding a Nino.  Chances for a Nina next winter are only about 5% though.

Right now I'm going for a mid year peak to weak Nino status (not official Nino though) and then falling to neutral in the autumn.  I reserve the right to change my mind though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

I am annoyed that it feels like the PSCZ has mostly focused on Everett and north  for the last several months. Or at least it has mostly missed my area.

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