PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post a 06z gfs snow map from tonight through Wednesday 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Upper levels will cool early next week for more blessings. 

[T-Town]

Getting a rain/snow mix here. Mostly rain but definitely a few flakes. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Upper levels will cool early next week for more blessings. 

Dude it could be insane for some places.  Already has been for you

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another aspect to consider over the next 24 hours is that the upper levels warm up a little bit from where it is this morning.

OK until about 09Z IMBY:

But by 12Z it is above the magic -2˚C mark, and +2˚C at the surface. Cold rain. Explains why the official forecast isn't very snowy.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overnight low of 30.6˚F despite the clouds, but no precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude it could be insane for some places.  Already has been for you

It has. I do think the worst of the insanity is over here, but I guess that depends on timing and intensity of precip. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS showing more snow for the Seattle are overnight than previous runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

OK until about 09Z IMBY:

But by 12Z it is above the magic -2˚C mark, and +2˚C at the surface. Cold rain. Explains why the official forecast isn't very snowy.

It’s snows a lot here with 925mb temps around +1-2C. Makes sense given our elevation and we get a lot of our snow when it’s slightly above freezing. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post a 06z gfs snow map from tonight through Wednesday 

This was 06Z GFS through Wednesday.

[umadbro]

Gfs and NAM still drunk for my location tomorrow. 3-4” is pretty stupid to show. 0-T at best.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s snows a lot here with 925mb temps around +1-2C. Makes sense given our elevation and we get a lot of our snow when it’s slightly above freezing. 

Of course, elevation matters. At one point I lived higher than the not only the 925 mbar but also the  850 mbar level. Regularly got snow IMBY even when the 850 mbar temp was +2˚C.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was 06Z GFS through Wednesday.

Is it snowing out at your place this morning?  

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Overnight low of 30.6˚F despite the clouds, but no precip.

The island range was hungry last night.  Showers were being eaten up by the terrain. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Is it snowing out at your place this morning?  

It wasn't until about 10 minutes ago... now have windswept snowflakes that aren't really sticking.

[Christensen87]

12z still looks better this weekend for the Sound. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. I do think the worst of the insanity is over here, but I guess that depends on timing and intensity of precip. 

I feel in my gut this could be a record snowy period out this way for March.

[Sandy rocks]

Raw, cold day here in Sandy. 36 and rain/snow mix.

[smerfylicious]

Yay

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Yay

More impressive than up here.   Some slushy accumulation on the driveway and wet windows.   Still windy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS was really strange and keeps us in a cool airmass throughout. Would probably be some pleasantly cool early spring days in there at face value. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 12z GFS was really strange and keeps us in a cool airmass throughout. Would probably be some pleasantly cool early spring days in there at face value. 

Ridge didn’t look too eager to let the westerlies break through. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I measured 0.8" of fresh snow this morning. We ended up with a 36/30 day yesterday with 0.3" of snow in the morning. 

The prolonged deep snowfall is causing considerable angst on the local Facebooks. Some people are talking about listing their homes. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This was 06Z GFS through Wednesday.

12z looked maybe a bit better for the sound but perhaps a bit of a pullback for snowmizer. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ridge didn’t look too eager to let the westerlies break through. 

12Z GEM has no problem in that regard... wet.

[Slushy Inch]

I guess NAM is good for me. We’ll see if I get anything. I doubt it. A reversal from nutty 6z.

[Winterdog]

Zip for snow here last night.  Low of 31.9F and now 37F.  Not hopeful for any more accumulating snow but pretty happy with what I've had this winter.  

[Slushy Inch]

HRRR has same band as NAM. Maybe if it is convective or heavy enough it can drop a quick coating.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess NAM is good for me. We’ll see if I get anything. I doubt it. A reversal from nutty 6z.

U weren’t joking about the 6z

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

HRRR has same band as NAM. Maybe if it is convective or heavy enough it can drop a quick coating.

 

[MWG]

Let's see what happens!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

That’s the first frame when it’s snowing so of course there isn’t much accumulation yet.

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess NAM is good for me. We’ll see if I get anything. I doubt it. A reversal from nutty 6z.

3rd shade of blue for me??? Guess there is still hope but not according to the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

Assuming nothing will really stick until after sunset tonight... here is total snow from 7 p.m. this evening through 7 p.m. tomorrow evening per the 12Z ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

And total precip for the same 24-hour period as the snow map above.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And total precip for the same 24-hour period as the snow map above.

Really cuts back on precip making it east of the coast range down this way. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And total precip for the same 24-hour period as the snow map above.

The euro snow totals out here could be way to low by looking at the precip. Going to depend how cold it gets and how high the snow ratio is. 

[MossMan]

The winners from overnight. And Sultan has interesting bus names! 
And the PNA. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro shows about 1 inch of liquid here! Dang it could be a bunch of heavy wet snow,  the kind that crushes trees.