PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[JW8]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And total precip for the same 24-hour period as the snow map above.

.42 precip and an inch of snow (doubtful)...sounds like a cold mess!  Bring on spring!!!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The euro snow totals out here could be way to low by looking at the precip. Going to depend how cold it gets and how high the snow ratio is. 

Hard to say.   The 925 temp loop looks the same as the earlier post so slowly warming over the next 24 hours which argues for less favorable snow ratios.    But not sure how it works in your area with cold air damming once the offshore flow starts up this evening.

[TT-SEA]

The direction of the radar echoes is now beginning to shift to more of a SW to NE direction as the next trough starts digging down offshore.   Yesterday into this morning everything was moving pretty much W to E.   

It looks like it will be precipitating out here the rest of today now.   But its mostly windswept mist and wet snowflakes and not amounting to anything during the daylight hours.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Euro shows about 1 inch of liquid here! Dang it could be a bunch of heavy wet snow,  the kind that crushes trees.

It’s showing heavy wet snow and even mixed precip east of the Canal. Temps stay above freezing.  We had a foot of snow on Monday and temps never went below 33F. Lots of broken branches around town. 

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Assuming nothing will really stick until after sunset tonight... here is total snow from 7 p.m. this evening through 7 p.m. tomorrow evening per the 12Z ECMWF.

Fort Lewis Special

[TT-SEA]

Another interesting note on the 12Z ECMWF is that Sunday - Wednesday look at least partly sunny and maybe even mostly sunny at times across western WA with highs around 50.    Which I realize is still colder than normal but will seem quite warm given the last 3 weeks.

This is because western WA is in no-mans land between a trough to the NW and SE by the middle of the week.

[TT-SEA]

And then here comes the rain one week from today...

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another interesting note on the 12Z ECMWF is that Sunday - Wednesday look at least partly sunny and maybe even mostly sunny at times across western WA with highs around 50.    Which I realize is still colder than normal but will seem quite warm given the last 3 weeks.

This is because western WA is in no-mans land between a trough to the NW and SE by the middle of the week.

Wake me up when it’s May. Last nights bust really disappointed me, I’m ready to get this spring/summer going! 

[TT-SEA]

Wow... it would be insane if this happened again.   Minneapolis is already at their 6th snowiest winter ever and this would push them to near the top.    @hawkstwelve

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s showing heavy wet snow and even mixed precip east of the Canal. Temps stay above freezing.  We had a foot of snow on Monday and temps never went below 33F. Lots of broken branches around town. 

99% of the time the temp lands in the 31.5-32.3 range, LOL i have watched a bunch of events here through the years. It will be around 33 right near the water but most of that western kitsap Peninsula is between 400-600 feet so thiose areas will hit freezing. I'm right at 650ft. 2 days ago we had 1 inch but down the road 1/4 at 520ft level there was no snow at all. That was crazy.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... it would be insane if this happened again.   Minneapolis is already at their 6th snowiest winter ever and this would push them to near the top.    @hawkstwelve

Quite the interesting total there! 

Edited March 3, 2023 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

Nature is going to suck up @Phil into a massive vortex.

[TT-SEA]

Copious rain in the 7-10 day period... warm conveyor belt in full gear.  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Copious rain in the 7-10 day period... warm conveyor belt in full gear.  

Good! Let’s drown for March and even the first half of April and then let’s get sunny and warm for a little bit!! 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature is going to suck up @Phil into a massive vortex.

I still don’t think he is quite due yet. How about we give him some table scraps goodies starting next February. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Copious rain in the 7-10 day period... warm conveyor belt in full gear.  

The GODS know we need it. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Good! Let’s drown for March and even the first half of April and then let’s get sunny and warm for a little bit!! 

Totally agree.   We need to make up these negative precip departures now.

[Timmy]

Euro continues to pull back at the lowest elevations here, 50% of 24 hours ago. Graf has been consistent.

[Slushy Inch]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Copious rain in the 7-10 day period... warm conveyor belt in full gear.  

EPS definitely has a wet look so far. We are due  for some pineapple express. Rip snowpack.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Assuming nothing will really stick until after sunset tonight... here is total snow from 7 p.m. this evening through 7 p.m. tomorrow evening per the 12Z ECMWF.

Mt. St Helens SCORE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Euro continues to pull back at the lowest elevations here, 50% of 24 hours ago. Graf has been consistent.

Looks like of reasonable. Would be really cool to see that kind of widespread stickage, even if it is mostly under an inch. 

[Slushy Inch]

Hour where anomalies finally return to normal in WW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Hour where anomalies finally return to normal in WW.

Not quite the epic torching we were sold on. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not quite the epic torching we were sold on. 

Atmospheric rivers will actually keep day time near or below normal due to thick cloud cover.

[SouthHillFrosty]

50 acres out by index for only 600k!

https://l.hms.pt/1125/14/1337281/252017/833772/34

 

[Slushy Inch]

Ok HRRR we’ll see about that.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not quite the epic torching we were sold on. 

Sold?   I was reporting what the ECMWF is showing.   Never said anything about epic torching at the surface when it's pouring rain in March.   Looks like temps close to normal at the surface.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sold?   I was reporting what the ECMWF is showing.   Never said anything about epic torching at the surface when it's pouring rain in March.   Looks like temps close to normal at the surface.

The EPS is substantially cooler.

[TT-SEA]

My focus was on the heavy rain... that is the big news later in the run on the ECMWF. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

The EPS is substantially cooler.

I see that.   Probably drier too.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

There is your c-zone! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 47/35 day yesterday. Morning rain then scattered showers and sunbreaks, even a hail shower in the afternoon. Evening low due to some clearing.

Mostly cloudy and 42 currently after a low of 36.

[SouthHillFrosty]

@HuskyMaestro Fife is in the sweet spot!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

21 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ok HRRR we’ll see about that.

This has me not getting shadowed... I don't believe it for a min

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This has me not getting shadowed... I don't believe it for a min

HRRR is garbage. Running every hours just results in wildly varying outcomes.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature is going to suck up @Phil into a massive vortex.

Yet another warm rain to cold/dry with insomnia due to pounding NW winds. Story of winter 2022/23.

I need a storm to track south of me without occluding for once. That’s been the problem. Seems impossible this year.

A monstrous trough like usually isn’t good for snow here. Our last big blizzard in 2016 looked mediocre at 500mb, you wouldn’t have guessed 3-4 feet of snow would have resulted.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I still don’t think he is quite due yet. How about we give him some table scraps goodies starting next February. 

Love you man. I promise not to post pics like this during the next El Niño.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. Looking very chilly through about the 10th then we move into a milder and wetter pattern. Or maybe just plain milder and dryish. Hard to tell that far out.

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Looking very chilly through about the 10th then we move into a milder and wetter pattern. Or maybe just plain milder and dryish. Hard to tell that far out.

The pacific jet will rage later this month. Anything before that is probably a bonus.