PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The pacific jet will rage later this month. Anything before that is probably a bonus.

As long as we don’t completely dry out and start torching after mid April I’m ok with a wetter pattern overall being delayed a little.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Monday could be fun

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As long as we don’t completely dry out and start torching after mid April I’m ok with a wetter pattern overall being delayed a little.

Doubt that will happen. While the odds are heavily stacked for a warm summer, it would be a very different pattern producing it this year.

IE: I don’t think drought/fire will a major problem this summer across most of the west relative to recent years. The 4CH will likely be significantly smaller. Suspect it will resemble something like 1997 or 2019. Or possibly 2002.

The more east-based the ENSO warming is, the better the result will be in the PNW region.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Monday could be fun

Better yet... that is Sunday night.    

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Modelled 925 mbar temperatures have trended warmer on the 12Z Euro. Not feeling optimistic.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Monday could be fun

We gotta get through tonight first. This might be the last time we see flakes flying below 1K this season. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Modelled 925 mbar temperatures have trended warmer on the 12Z Euro. Not feeling optimistic.

925mb temp was at -2C over SEA at 10 a.m. today and that was the coldest 925mb temp it shows for the entire run.   We briefly get back to -2C for a couple hours again on Thursday morning.     

It is currently at -1C now and should be around +1C by early tomorrow morning.

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing hard at my house looking at my cams.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@HuskyMaestro Fife is in the sweet spot!

The amount of times I've been burned this season. Nope nope, Philly Special but make it the Fife Special

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS says this could be a good one for the REQUIEM. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We gotta get through tonight first. This might be the last time we see flakes flying below 1K this season. 

Tonight might be good for you and others with some elevation, but for most of us it is shaping up to be a nothing burger.

[Slushy Inch]

18z GFS Snow starting at 7pm? I don’t think so.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

18z GFS Snow starting at 7pm? I don’t think so.

Probably yet another Goofus map based on a 36°F freezing point.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Probably yet another Goofus map based on a 36°F freezing point.

It has temperatures dropping every hour from now until 7pm and getting into the mid30s. Don’t know why that would happen.

[Phil]

Getting north bend weather today.

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/washington-dc-national-arboretum-mr.-president-first-lady-bald-eagle-cam

[weatherweenie]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

50 acres out by index for only 600k!

https://l.hms.pt/1125/14/1337281/252017/833772/34

 

Fun fact - the realtor is my neighbor.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

18z GFS Snow starting at 7pm? I don’t think so.

4th shade of grey!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

18z GFS Snow starting at 7pm? I don’t think so.

Currently a slushy  and 39.0 flat for a temp…… not impossible tonight but very unlikely 

[MossMan]

Okay Jim…I have your dream location (if staying west of the Cascade) I had some free time today so I took a drive to Lake Cavanaugh which is about a half hour NE from my house. It’s at just over 1,000ft and my dream location for snow and for very low population density. Think I passed 3 cars the entire drive there. If you don’t mind a 30min drive to I-5 or can work from home and don’t mind not being 2 minutes from a Costco or Target…It’s the perfect location!! Was 33 degrees with light snow falling when I was there a bit ago. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay Jim…I have your dream location (if staying west of the Cascade) I had some free time today so I took a drive to Lake Cavanaugh which is about a half hour NE from my house. It’s at just over 1,000ft and my dream location for snow and for very low population density. Think I passed 3 cars the entire drive there. If you don’t mind a 30min drive to I-5 or can work from home and don’t mind not being 2 minutes from a Costco or Target…It’s the perfect location!! Was 33 degrees with light snow falling when I was there a bit ago. 

That area must have been hit hard with the Tuesday system... way more snow than here at the same elevation.

[the_convergence_zone]

Hey folks -- been looking for a place that isn't Twitter to chat about PNW weather -- love the discussion and hoping to contribute a bit. 

Thoughts on this weekend...it's a modified oceanic airmass which is cursed by the wet bulb temperature. It's just a general rule of thumb for this region at any time of year that takes extraordinary circumstances to get it to snow below 500' without true arctic air via the passes. And this is just a typical spring cutoff low. 

[Phil]

This windstorm in KY. Might reach @Timmy Supercell in a few hours. Doesn’t look convective.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KLEX&hours=72

[BLI snowman]

Random, arbitrary stat of the day: Today will mark the 119th consecutive day that PDX has stayed under 58 degrees, which ties the record set in 1948-49. Looks likely that we blow that record out of the water.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Hey folks -- been looking for a place that isn't Twitter to chat about PNW weather -- love the discussion and hoping to contribute a bit. 

Thoughts on this weekend...it's a modified oceanic airmass which is cursed by the wet bulb temperature. It's just a general rule of thumb for this region at any time of year that takes extraordinary circumstances to get it to snow below 500' without true arctic air via the passes. And this is just a typical spring cutoff low. 

Don’t forget convective showers! I had snow showers yesterday in the lower 40s.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Hey folks -- been looking for a place that isn't Twitter to chat about PNW weather -- love the discussion and hoping to contribute a bit. 

Thoughts on this weekend...it's a modified oceanic airmass which is cursed by the wet bulb temperature. It's just a general rule of thumb for this region at any time of year that takes extraordinary circumstances to get it to snow below 500' without true arctic air via the passes. And this is just a typical spring cutoff low. 

Welcome! 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Hey folks -- been looking for a place that isn't Twitter to chat about PNW weather -- love the discussion and hoping to contribute a bit. 

Thoughts on this weekend...it's a modified oceanic airmass which is cursed by the wet bulb temperature. It's just a general rule of thumb for this region at any time of year that takes extraordinary circumstances to get it to snow below 500' without true arctic air via the passes. And this is just a typical spring cutoff low. 

This place is way better than Twitter or FB for weather discussions.

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Don’t forget convective showers! I had snow showers yesterday in the lower 40s.

Always fun when a good convective cell drags the snow level down the surface, even if it is only for 5 minutes. Especially if accompanied by graupel and a few bolts of lighting. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Always fun when a good convective cell drags the snow level down the surface, even if it is only for 5 minutes. Especially if accompanied by graupel and a few bolts of lighting. 

That’s why I love living in the crosshairs of the convergence zone. Unfortunately the best stuff missed downtown Bothell yesterday.

[SnowySeeker50]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Monday could be fun

Nam loves giving false hope for the King-Pierce county line.

[JW8]

Welcome @the_convergence_zone, sounds like you know @MossManwell. Though he has a word for you about last night...

[Omegaraptor]

Druncle shoves all in on dry after day 6.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Welcome @the_convergence_zone, sounds like you know @MossManwell. Though he has a word for you about last night...

Yeah I’m not very happy about that and want a full debrief as to why you failed me! 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I’m not very happy about that and want a full debrief as to why you failed me! 

Haha, now we have someone to complain to when convergence zone doesn’t work out.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Tonight might be good for you and others with some elevation, but for most of us it is shaping up to be a nothing burger.

Slight rain snow mix now here. 

[Slushy Inch]

Was not expecting upper30s at 3pm. Brrr. March 3rd right?

[MossMan]

Currently a 90% rain 10% snow shower going on. My current snow and snow pile situation.  

[MossMan]

Up to a 50/50 mix now. 

[Slushy Inch]

Trough hangs out for a while longer on the GEFS.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently a 90% rain 10% snow shower going on. My current snow and snow pile situation.  

Every time the precip has become heavier today its been in the form of snow... nothing to show for it though and the pre-existing snow is melting.   Things might change once we get to sunset.    I suspect we would have had 2-3 inches of snow today if it was December or if this moisture had been coming through at night.